Summary of "'APOCALYPTIC PREDICTIONS': Major US bank makes suspicious claim about Trump's tariffs"

Overview of Tariff Impact on Consumers

The video discusses Goldman Sachs’ claim that consumers are bearing 55% of the cost of President Trump’s tariffs in the current year, which initially sounds inflationary. However, EJ Antony explains that while the report points to next year, historical predictions from Goldman Sachs and other banks that consumers would fully absorb tariff costs have consistently been proven wrong.

Instead, middlemen and foreign exporters have absorbed much of the tariffs, preventing the “apocalyptic” price increases that were widely anticipated.

Tariffs and Inflation

While tariffs do contribute to some temporary price increases, the majority of recent consumer price inflation (CPI) is attributed to monetary policy missteps—specifically, aggressive interest rate cuts and easing when inflation was already accelerating.

Tariffs are seen as part of a broader effort to reshore manufacturing, undoing previous offshoring trends, but their inflationary impact remains limited.

Trade War with China

Regarding the ongoing trade war with China, EJ Antony suggests it will likely continue for some time because China has a history of not honoring trade agreements, including those signed with the Trump administration.

Although market selloffs caused by the trade war give China some leverage, China’s economy is currently weaker and possibly in recession, which balances the dynamic somewhat.

Impact of New Lumber Tariffs

The discussion also touches on new tariffs on lumber, which add costs to the housing industry. However, this is mitigated somewhat by tax and regulatory reforms that make it easier to process domestic lumber, especially in the Pacific Northwest.

These reforms benefit domestic producers and potentially lower costs over time.

Conclusion

Overall, the conversation emphasizes that tariffs and their effects do not occur in isolation but within a complex economic and policy environment. The expected severe inflationary consequences of tariffs have not materialized to the extent predicted.

Presenters/Contributors: - EJ Antony - Stuart (interviewer)