Summary of "Лекция Андрея Безрукова. «Стратегическое прогнозирование: от сигналов к решениям»"

Summary of the Lecture by Andrey Bezrukov: “Strategic Forecasting: From Signals to Decisions”

Main Ideas and Concepts

1. Historical Context and Current Epochal Shift

The world is entering a major technological and social turning point comparable to the early 20th century (aviation, radio, internal combustion engine).
New technologies such as AI and genetics will restructure the global technological base, impacting politics and society.
Historical parallels show that technological shifts caused global conflicts like WWI and WWII; today, similar tensions arise from the rise of China and shifting global power blocs.

2. Global Geopolitical and Economic Landscape

Future conflicts will center along southern Eurasia, where industrial bases and growing middle classes exist.
Large techno-economic blocs are forming (Chinese, American, Anglo-Saxon, Russian/others), each with distinct resources, financial systems, and technologies.
Competition will be fierce for technological and economic dominance.
Russia’s challenge is how to compete with much larger economies; the solution involves creating a large economic space with partners (India, Iran, Southeast Asia) based on shared technology and standards.

3. Types of Futures and Forecasting Necessity

Futures can be categorized as:
- Inevitable (based on trends),
- Possible (multiple scenarios),
- Unthinkable (black swans).
Structural collapse into competing regions and economic crises are expected during the transition.
Forecasting is crucial not to predict exact futures but to prepare decision-makers for multiple possibilities.
Planning is less about fixed plans and more about the process of thinking, adapting, and preparing for change.

4. Strategic Dialogue and Decision-Making

Strategic dialogue is essential for decision-making; it involves bringing together key influencers to ask hard questions and form strategies.
Historical example: Freemasonry as a secret platform for strategic dialogue across social classes.
Modern strategic dialogue requires:
- A structured process,
- A shared “map” or common understanding of the future.
Forecasts serve as a “memory of the future” to guide decisions.

5. Human and Organizational Cognition of the Future

Humans naturally think about the future to prioritize important information and prepare actions.
States and organizations lack this natural mechanism and thus need formal forecasting systems to distinguish important signals from noise.

6. Methodologies of Forecasting

Trend Projection: Extending current trends into the future; reliable in some fields (demography), less so in rapidly changing areas (technology).
Expert Opinion (Delphi Method): Aggregating expert views; can be enhanced by “Wisdom of the Crowds” and decision markets.
Scenario Analysis: Creating multiple plausible stories about the future to provoke decision-makers and prepare for paradigm shifts.
- Example: Royal Dutch Shell’s scenario planning during the 1973 oil crisis.
Forecasts must lead to plans and strategies; they are tools for preparation, not crystal balls.

7. International Practices in Strategic Forecasting

Singapore: Developed a Strategic Policy Group that continuously scans global trends and adapts national priorities.
South Korea: Focused on technological forecasting to guide industrial investments.
France: Specialized in territorial and governmental prospective planning.
USA: The Pentagon and National Intelligence Council lead in scenario and technological forecasting.
Russia: Historically had a strong forecasting system (Soviet State Planning Committee, State Committee for Science and Technology) but lost it after the USSR collapse.

8. Modern Russian Challenges and Approaches

Current Russian scientific investment is inefficient and politically influenced.
A three-tiered priority system is proposed:
1. Presidential-level major challenges (e.g., food security, economic transition).
2. Large socio-economic projects addressing these challenges.
3. Specific technologies needed to implement these projects.
Need to create a “living” event-based forecasting system integrating multiple methodologies and updated in real time.
Artificial intelligence can assist in collecting and analyzing future events to support adaptive planning.
Strategic forecasting must be integrated into public administration and government decision-making.

9. Role of Science Fiction and Cultural Imagination

Science fiction serves as a form of scenario analysis, helping society and decision-makers envision possible futures.
Russia needs more science fiction writers to stimulate creative thinking about the future.
Current science fiction has declined but is expected to revive with the new technological cycle.

10. Black Swans and System Resilience

Black swans (unpredictable, high-impact events) cannot be foreseen but systems can be designed to be flexible and resilient.
States and organizations should embed mechanisms for self-assessment and adaptability.
Avoid rigid control structures that hinder response to shocks.

11. Civilizational and Identity Dynamics

Nation-states are a recent, mostly Western construct; many large civilizations and identities transcend these boundaries.
Understanding these dynamics is important for long-term strategic forecasting and policy-making.

Strategic forecasting is not about predicting the future with certainty but about preparing decision-makers to navigate uncertainty through structured dialogue, scenario planning, and adaptive strategies.