Summary of "No Exit Strategy: Burma's Endless Crisis and America's Limited Options"

Joint Hearing Overview

The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Subcommittees on East Asia and the Pacific and South and Central Asia held a joint hearing titled No Exit Strategy: Burma’s Endless Crisis and America’s Limited Options. The discussion focused on the ongoing military and humanitarian crisis in Burma (Myanmar), highlighting:

The profound instability caused by Burma’s military junta (the Tatmadaw)
The dire humanitarian situation, especially for the Rohingya community
Complex regional and global implications involving China, Russia, and transnational crime networks

Key Points and Analyses

1. Burma’s Current Crisis and the Military Junta’s Control

Since the 2021 military coup, Burma has descended into civil war. The Tatmadaw controls about 20% of the country’s land, while opposition forces control roughly twice that.
The junta plans sham elections in December 2025 to legitimize its authoritarian rule. These elections are widely condemned as neither free nor fair and are designed to maintain military dominance and secure international recognition, especially from China and Russia.
The military regime continues brutal crackdowns, including killings, airstrikes on civilians, forced conscription (including Rohingya Muslims), and suppression of dissent through harsh election laws.

2. Humanitarian Catastrophe and Rohingya Crisis

Over 1.3 million Rohingya refugees live in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, facing severe restrictions on movement, right to work, education, and safety.
Funding cuts to humanitarian aid have worsened conditions, leading to malnutrition, increased gender-based violence, child marriage, and human trafficking.
Refugees remain stateless and face ongoing genocidal violence and persecution inside Burma. Repatriation is unsafe without significant political and security changes.
The U.S. has been a major donor, but recent aid cuts and restrictive refugee resettlement policies have undermined support efforts. Restoring and increasing aid and resettlement programs are critical.

3. Transnational Crime and Scam Centers

Burma has become a global hub for organized crime, including massive scam centers defrauding Americans out of billions annually, drug production (opium, methamphetamines), and human trafficking.
These illicit economies are closely linked to the military regime and Chinese criminal networks.
Scam centers use advanced technology (including AI and Starlink satellite internet) to operate with impunity, often with tacit or direct support from the junta and Chinese authorities.
Recent military raids on scam centers are largely performative, allowing key perpetrators to escape.
The U.S. faces a national security threat from these networks, which finance the military’s war efforts and contribute to the global fentanyl crisis.

4. China’s Role and Geostrategic Interests

China is the decisive enabler of the military junta, providing weapons, surveillance technology, and political backing.
Beijing’s goal is to keep Burma weak, divided, and dependent, securing strategic assets such as the Kyaukpyu deepwater port and pipelines that bypass the Strait of Malacca.
China exerts influence over ASEAN countries to recognize the junta’s sham elections, though ASEAN as a bloc remains divided and largely ineffective in enforcing its own five-point consensus on Burma.
The junta’s reliance on China and Russia complicates U.S. policy and regional stability, with China also hosting drug lords and arms dealers linked to Burma’s illicit economy.

5. U.S. Policy Challenges and Recommendations

The U.S. must categorically reject the upcoming sham elections and refuse to recognize the junta’s legitimacy.
Sustained, clear, and consistent U.S. engagement is needed, including appointing a senior-level special envoy for Burma to coordinate policy across bureaus and with regional partners.
Sanctions should be expanded and rigorously enforced, targeting military-linked banks (e.g., Myanmar Economic Bank), arms dealers, and criminal networks. Secondary sanctions should pressure Chinese and Thai entities enabling the junta.
Support for ethnic resistance groups and grassroots governance structures that have gained territory and legitimacy amid the conflict should be strengthened.
Humanitarian aid must be restored and increased, focusing on improving conditions in refugee camps, enabling refugees’ right to work and freedom of movement, and supporting education programs, particularly for Rohingya women and girls.
Refugee resettlement programs need revitalization as a critical tool for protection and empowerment.
The U.S. should work closely with ASEAN, Bangladesh, India, and other regional actors to develop a cohesive, long-term strategy addressing both the conflict and refugee crisis.
Efforts to disrupt scam centers and transnational criminal networks require enhanced interagency and international cooperation, including intelligence sharing and victim support mechanisms.

6. Broader Regional and Global Implications

The crisis in Burma is a source of regional instability affecting South and Southeast Asia, with spillover effects on refugee flows, public health, and transnational crime.
The U.S. has moral and strategic interests in preventing Burma from becoming a failed state dominated by authoritarian proxies of China and Russia.
There is bipartisan congressional support for legislation such as the Burma Genocide Accountability and Protection Act (Burma GAP Act), the Burma Brave Act, and the Dismantle Foreign Scam Syndicates Act, which aim to address these multifaceted challenges.

Presenters and Contributors

Chairwoman Young Kim (East Asia and the Pacific Subcommittee)
Ranking Member Ami Bera (East Asia and the Pacific Subcommittee)
Chairman John Hisinga (South and Central Asia Subcommittee)
Ranking Member Sydney Kamlager-Dove (South and Central Asia Subcommittee)
Ambassador Kelly Curry – Non-resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Indo-Pacific Security Initiative
Steve Ross – Senior Fellow, Stimson Center
Lucky Karim – Executive Director, Refugee Woman for Peace and Justice; Rohingya community member and advocate

Additional participants in questioning included Representatives David Cicilline, Greg Pence, Ami Bera, Michael McCaul, Pramila Jayapal, Joaquin Castro, and others.

Summary

The hearing underscored that Burma’s crisis is deeply entrenched with no easy exit, exacerbated by authoritarian military rule, Chinese strategic ambitions, and transnational criminal enterprises. However, the U.S. possesses a range of diplomatic, economic, and humanitarian tools that, if fully employed and coordinated with regional partners, can help: