Daye Quarterly Theory 2024 full course | single file

Main Ideas & Lessons Conveyed

Quarterly Theory Basics: Time Over Price

• The speaker repeatedly emphasizes that time dictates price behavior.
• Price levels are validated by when they occur.
• Market turning points are expected around:
  • Quarterly shifts
  • Other “cycle opens” (true opens of multiple time cycles)

Liquidity Concept: Where Price “Needs” to Go

• Liquidity is located above old highs and below old lows.
• Price often aims to purge / pull liquidity:
  • If price rises above prior highs → it takes buy-side liquidity
  • If price drops below prior lows → it takes sell-side liquidity
• Example reasoning:
  • Tapping multiple “relatively equal highs” can create stronger confluence than hitting only one.

Imbalances as Core Setup Foundations

• The speaker treats imbalances (inefficiencies) as the base of setups—not only highs/lows.
• Key imbalance types introduced:

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

• A 3-candle pattern.
• Defined using the middle candle wick / low-high non-overlap rule to create a visible “gap” on the chart.

Balanced Price Range (BPR) (Preferred)

• Formed when two FVGs overlap.
• Considered the “best imbalance” in the speaker’s view.

Inverse FVG

• Mentioned as a different orientation/behavior where price digs into an inefficiency and then drops.
• The speaker states it is less important than BPR / FVG overlap.

Priority Order for Building a Setup

1. Identify a higher-timeframe imbalance / PD (inefficiency)
2. Align the lower-timeframe liquidity sweep (old highs/lows)
3. Use SMT / Sequential SMT to confirm directional bias and turning likelihood
4. Ensure time alignment (cycle “opens,” session quarters, etc.)

SMT / Sequential SMT as Validation

• The speaker relies heavily on SMT, especially sequential SMT, to determine whether a move is real or fake.
• Key claim:
  • If price breaks old highs/lows but there is no valid imbalance / SMT confirmation, it’s often a fake move and price will likely revisit those levels later.

Time-Frame Alignment Methodology

• Setup building uses a hierarchy of timeframes:
  • Lower-timeframe entries should require a higher-timeframe imbalance
• The speaker provides a mapping (mainly for sequential SMT and liquidity-to-imbalance logic).

Best Daily Trading Window

• The speaker repeatedly claims the best New York session window is roughly:
  • 9:00–10:30 a.m. (ET) (often described as “best 70% of the time”).

Seasonal Tendency & Quarterly Shift Forecasting

• The speaker offers a qualitative directional expectation:
  • For some indices/markets, bias may be hard to act on during “chop” / “distortion weeks” (e.g., around CPI/NFP weeks)
  • Clarity is expected later—often late Jan / early Feb
• Direction is tied to:
  • Seasonal tendency
  • Quarterly shift timing
• Then validated by SMT.

Extra Advanced Constructs Introduced

• Trendline liquidity vs. equal highs/lows

  • Trendline liquidity is claimed to be lower resistance, attracting price with less friction.

• Turtle soup

  • A behavioral template: price hunts liquidity, then reverses.

• Revolving True Open, Precision Levels, Precision Swing Points

  • True opens (cycle/session opens) act like pivots.
  • Precision levels blend:
    • a true open (time) with
    • a higher-timeframe imbalance/order-block-type reference (price)
  • Precision swing points are described as candles correlating across assets and time.
  • Sometimes the speaker claims SMT isn’t required if the precision candle forms in the right time context.

• Hidden sequential SMT

  • A “hidden” form where closes matter, and sometimes only candle bodies (not wicks) reveal the real SMT relationship.

• Sequential SMT cancels / confirms

  • SMT signals can be “cancelled” by later SMT formations (e.g., a second SMT can negate the first).

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Methodology (Step-by-Step Instructions)

1) Liquidity Identification (Core Definitions)

• Buy-side liquidity = any prior high above current price.
• Sell-side liquidity = any prior low below current price.
• Expect price to travel to purge these liquidity pools:
  • If price is above old highs → likely sweeping buy-side stops
  • If price is below old lows → likely sweeping sell-side stops

2) Imbalance Identification (What to Label First)

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

• Identify a 3-candle structure where surrounding candle high/low non-overlap forms a visible gap based on the middle candle wick behavior.

Balanced Price Range (BPR) (Preferred)

• Find two overlapping FVGs.
• Use the overlap zone as the “best” imbalance area to trade from.

Inverse FVG

• Identify inefficiency zones where price later digs into the imbalance and then reverses.
• Treated as less important than BPR / FVG overlap.

3) Setup Build Logic (Imbalance-First, Liquidity-Second)

• During setup hunting:
  • Base the setup on an imbalance (FVG/BPR) from a higher timeframe
  • Then look for price to return into that imbalance after a sweep of:
    • old highs/lows (buy-side/sell-side liquidity)
  • Validate direction with SMT / sequential SMT

4) Timeframe Hierarchy for Entries (As Stated Multiple Times)

• Recommended “stack” examples:
  • Trading 1-minute → use a 15-minute imbalance
  • Trading 5-minute → use a 1-hour imbalance
  • Trading daily → use a monthly imbalance
• Higher TF imbalance anchors the setup.
• Lower TF liquidity sweep + SMT confirmation triggers timing.
• The speaker also lists a broader “go-to list” of timeframes (including 1m/5m/15m/1h/4h/daily/weekly/monthly).

5) Sequential SMT Process Concept (Directional Confirmation)

• For major reversals / turning points:
  • Look for sequential SMT between specific quarters/cycles (often Q3 to Q4).
• Confirmation uses:
  • two correlated assets failing to make matching extremes
  • while the “other side” does make the expected extreme
• If extremes break but SMT alignment is missing → treat as fake / low probability

6) “Q3 of the Day” Trading Emphasis (New York Window)

• For highest-probability examples, the speaker highlights:
  • Q3 of the New York session
  • often within 9:00–10:30 a.m. ET
• This is claimed to be when SMT/telling signals appear most reliably.

7) Backtesting / Tape-Reading Directive

• The speaker instructs viewers to:
  • Backtest by replaying old charts (not “blind replay”)
  • Look for repeated occurrences of:
    • liquidity sweeps
    • imbalance reactions (FVG/BPR)
    • SMT relationships between correlated assets
• Use backtesting to build confidence and identify patterns that repeat.

8) Execution Behavior Guidance (What to Do When SMT Appears)

• When SMT / sequential SMT confirms the expected turn:

  • Enter within the relevant zone:
    • imbalance / BPR / breaker / order-block-type area
  • Use liquidity-informed stops (described via):
    • fib standard deviation logic, and/or
    • placements relative to swing highs/lows or true open boundaries

• When SMT indicates failure of correlation:

  • Expect explosive continuation in the direction implied by the “failing asset.”

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Speakers / Sources Featured

• Primary speaker: the course instructor/trader (referred to as “ICT” frequently; no personal name is provided in the subtitles).
• Secondary referenced source: ICT (Inner Circle Trader)
  • Often cited for terminology like trendline liquidity and market-structure ideas.