Democrats are Winning. I Told Trump This Would Happen.

Summary

Mark Mitchell presents the first national tracking poll from his new company, The Honest Poll. He argues that the results suggest a strong Democratic advantage if the midterm election were held at the time of the survey.

He says the poll uses an updated methodology: sampling adults and weighting to census benchmarks, using party-identification data from Gallup and Pew, applying education and regional weights, and using separate registered- and likely-voter filters. The sample came from online panels and randomly dialed landlines.

Key results

• Direction of the country: Among registered voters, 30% said the country was headed in the right direction and 62% said it was on the wrong track. Among likely voters, the figures were 33% and 62%.
• Trump’s approval: Approval was 41% among registered voters and 42% among likely voters; disapproval was 58% in both groups.
• Generic congressional ballot: Democrats led by 10 points among registered voters and 11 points among likely voters on the unleaned measure. The forced-choice measure showed a 10-point Democratic lead.
• Enthusiasm: Democrats led 58% to 39% among respondents who said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting. Mitchell says Trump’s support appeared weaker among the most enthusiastic voters.
• Differences among voter groups: Mitchell highlights an income divide: voters earning under $100,000 favored Democrats, while those earning more leaned Republican. He also points to weak Republican support among younger voters and low enthusiasm among independents.

Comparisons with other polls

Mitchell compares his results with other polling, citing a RealClearPolitics generic-ballot average showing a Democratic lead of about 5.7 points, as well as larger Democratic leads in polls from Big Data Poll and Emerson. He says he is skeptical of Rasmussen’s smaller Democratic lead because, in his view, its party-weighting approach has not been updated since 2024.

He also disputes the widely shared Harvard-Harris result showing Republicans ahead by two points among likely midterm voters. Mitchell argues that the poll’s reported recalled vote—respondents’ accounts of whom they voted for in 2024—appears to have favored Trump voters more than expected. He says Harvard-Harris stopped publishing that measure, making it harder to assess, and contends that adjusting for the imbalance could substantially change the result. These are Mitchell’s interpretations of the polling, not independently established conclusions in the video.

Electoral outlook and political analysis

Mitchell argues that the polling suggests Republicans are at serious risk of losing the House. He cites the number of Republican-held seats among Cook Political Report’s toss-ups and betting-market odds favoring Democratic gains. He does not make a specific Senate forecast, saying he has not polled individual Senate races.

He attributes Republicans’ lost ground to the administration’s lack of focus on economic concerns and “economic populism.” Mitchell says he warned Trump that voters wanted action on affordability, jobs, housing, government reform, and corporate power. He criticizes the administration’s focus on foreign affairs and internal political conflicts, and argues that Republicans could improve their prospects by refocusing on those concerns.

Mitchell cautions that the results describe what might happen if the election were held at the time of the poll, rather than providing a certain forecast. He notes the poll’s margin of error is ±3.4 percentage points and says events or campaign decisions could change the outlook before Election Day.

Presenter

• Mark Mitchell — Host of The Honest Poll and presenter of the poll analysis.