We're Entering The Strongest Seasonal Time Of Year For Gold & Silver | Andy Schectman

Finance-focused Summary (Gold/Silver, Macro, and Crypto/Stablecoins)

Seasonal & Market Timing Thesis (Gold/Silver)

• Core premise: The second half of the year—especially fall—tends to be the strongest seasonal period for gold and silver.
• Calendar-based “risk buildup” framework:
  • Labor Day is described as the point where markets “start to change.”
  • September is claimed (by the guest) to be historically the worst month for stocks (with “most people” mistakenly thinking it’s October).
  • The guest argues markets are primed for volatility and risk events heading into midterm elections and the late-year period.
  • “Concentration” conditions are emphasized:
    • Margin debt at the highest level in history
    • Elevated options exposure

Macro: Why Precious Metals Could Be Bullish

Rejection of the “rates will stay high” bearish gold narrative

• The guest argues that expectations of the Fed being unable to cut rates should not automatically imply gold must fall.
• He claims gold should perform well if inflation/monetary expansion is occurring.

Inflation vs CPI framing

• Explicit claim: “CPI is not inflation.”
• Inflation is defined as money supply expansion (M2), which the guest says is growing rapidly.

Treasury / bond stress (key numbers & claims)

• The guest claims about $10 trillion in Treasuries must be rolled over/refinanced over the next 12 months.
• He argues a potential 50 bps increase in 10-year yields would be among the worst long-horizon outcomes, and references an average recent performance around -2% per year.
• He also calls it “ridiculous” to assume Fed cuts aren’t coming as a reason to sell gold while simultaneously acknowledging bond market pain.

Labor/Fed Reaction & “Noise” Critique

Skepticism on employment data

• The guest cites a 58% probability of a rate hike (linked to “hot jobs” / employment figures).
• He claims employment data is unreliable due to revisions:
  • Example: June jobless claims revised downward by 177,000 jobs
  • He claims job openings were revised downwards in 38 of the last 43 months

“Lag effect” thesis for gold/bonds/oil/food

• The guest argues higher rates and real-economy pressure won’t fully show up immediately.
• He cites multiple delay channels:
  • Higher yields and higher CPI slow the economy (with leverage compounding drag)
  • Oil as a delay driver for real trade problems
    • Mentions food inflation risk for winter
    • References constraints like fertilizers not reaching world markets

Diesel / crack spread and energy shock (risk highlight)

• Diesel hits a record high: “almost $6/gallon.”
• Energy costs are linked to broader economic stress (trucking, farming, construction).

Strategic reserve as an amplifier

• The guest claims the strategic reserve was reduced to the lowest level in 40 years (with the gas/diesel shock not yet fully absorbed).

Central Bank Behavior & “Counterparty Risk” Argument

Gold repatriation signals

• Countries repatriating gold from the Bank of England / UK (or from abroad) are cited, including:
  • Netherlands, Norway, Bundesbank (Germany), Austria, Poland, Hungary, Turkey, France, India
• The Netherlands example is used to support a “don’t trust claims—watch actions” idea.

ECB reserve composition claim

• A Financial Times report is referenced: the ECB holds more gold in reserves than dollars (as cited by the guest).

Bond market liquidity skepticism

• The guest argues Treasuries are not as liquid/safe as implied.
• He points to other countries’ actions and “price caps” claims tied to selling.

Alternative Payment / Settlement Systems & Geopolitical Finance

Dollar-system challenge narrative

• A pilot is referenced involving the UAE, India, NDB (New Development Bank), and Russia’s central bank to verify oil trade settlement without using the dollar (UAE–India).
• The guest interprets this as growing “resistance” to sanctions and to dollar clearing.

BRIC+ energy concentration claim

• The guest states ~40% of world crude oil exports come from BRIC+ countries.

Stablecoins & Tokenized Gold (Mechanics and Expected Impact)

Tokenized gold: what it is and why verification matters

• Tokenization is described as approaching and potentially useful, but the guest stresses that the key question is:
  • What the token represents
  • Who keeps the gold
  • How/where it’s checked
  • How redemption works
• World Gold Council position (plumbing/interoperability analogy):
  • Tokenized gold should function like “plumbing” so different forms are interoperable—compared to a Visa gift card usable across merchants.

Collateral & borrowing implications

• Tokenization is argued to help prove collateral for loans.
• The guest suggests this could enable cross-border movement “similar to Bitcoin,” but with gold backing.

Custody transparency and registry reconciliation

• Custodians (example: Brinks) are said to need continuous reconciliation of inventories vs registries.

Stablecoin mechanics & “front-end curve” effect

• Stablecoins backing (per US stablecoin framing mentioned by the guest):
  • US stablecoins take effect in January
  • Backing is mostly short-term U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities ≤ 93 days
• Claimed outcome (“synthetic demand”):
  • Could pin down the front end of the Treasury curve
  • Could reduce how effectively the Fed controls via the overnight lending rate

Claims involving Tether/USDT and gold buying

• The guest alleges:
  • Tether Gold has bought significant gold (claimed as “more than anyone in the world in the last few years,” with an exception: central bank of Poland)
• DOJ-related claim:
  • A stage comment is cited that USDT wallets used by the IRGC were identified and blocked at the smart contract level.
• Guest’s intuition (explicitly framed as no evidence):
  • Speculation that US Treasury/DOJ could pressure stablecoin providers to support gold accumulation—allegedly keeping Treasury away from direct open-market gold purchases.

Gold Audit and Trust / Verification Argument (Fort Knox)

Criticism of “non-transparent audit”

• The guest argues that televised/audited transparency is required.
• He characterizes any “back door invite” approach as unacceptable.

Where US gold is held

• Gold is not only at Fort Knox; it’s also cited at:
  • West Point Mint
  • Denver Mint
  • New York Federal Reserve
  • Fort Knox

Verification standards described

• “Real audits” are described as:
  • Counting/inspecting numbered bars
  • Reconciling to spreadsheets
  • Verifying purity and standardization
• The guest also references experience with Brinks custody and bullion inventory controls.

Precious Metals Tax & Investor Implementation Guidance

Collectibles tax rate (explicit)

• Precious metals collectibles tax rate is stated as 28%.
• The claim is that it applies to metal sales held > 1 year as “collectibles,” contrasting with ordinary capital gains treatment.

ETF caution (explicit)

• The guest warns gold/silver ETFs can be taxed at the collectibles rate (28%), even when they’re ETFs.
• Suggested alternatives/structures (as referenced):
  • SPDR / “SPAT” ETF / closed-end fund (ticker not clearly stated in subtitles)
  • He recommends avoiding certain ETF exposures depending on tax treatment.

State sales tax considerations (examples)

• Rules vary by state; examples mentioned:
  • California: sales tax when purchases are under $2,000
  • Minnesota: 7% sales tax on legal-tender sovereign mint issuances; bullion may be exempt
• Guidance: investors should “look around in your state.”

Compliance note: Form 8300 & cash reporting

• Form 8300 is mentioned for cash transactions over $10,000.
• He notes it’s filed/provided to government and encourages reporting suspicious activity if a firm has a “bad feeling” (SAR-like idea).

Offer / Trading / Purchase-Related Specifics (Promotions & Premiums)

Silver offers (premiums to spot)

• Ongoing offers for silver at unusually low premiums to spot are referenced:
  • “Low-grade silver,” “trash silver”
  • Deals around $2 below spot
• Premiums are said to be moving upward:
  • “50 cents more per half” (and similar incremental changes for smaller units), while supplies last.

Where the offer comes from

• thoughtfulmoney.com/bygold is referenced as the place to connect with Andy’s team.
• The guest advises not to rely only on the public website for availability; contact via the provided form/link.

Explicit Finance Instruments / Tickers / Assets Mentioned

• Gold (physical and “tokenized gold”)
• Silver (including “low-grade/trash silver” deals; Comex contract sizing referenced)
• U.S. Treasury bonds / 10-year Treasury yields
• Bitcoin (as an asset that may benefit from monetary expansion)
• M2 (money supply metric)
• Diesel fuel
• Stablecoins
• Tether / USDT
• PAX Gold (PAXG) (tokenized gold example)
• Tether Gold (tokenized gold example)
• Gold ETFs: GLD, SOV
• Brinks (custody/storage firm)
• Comex (gold/silver contract sizing referenced)
• Also referenced entities: World Gold Council, Federal Reserve, ECB, LBMA, COMEX, DOJ, IRGC

Numbers & Performance Metrics Explicitly Called Out

• Labor Day (calendar marker)
• September: claimed worst month for stocks (no numeric return provided)
• Margin debt: “highest level in history” (no exact value)
• Options exposure: referenced as “factored in” (no numeric value)
• $10 trillion Treasuries to roll/refinance over next 12 months
• 10-year Treasuries: average recent performance referenced around -2% per year (context: poor performance if yields rise)
• Rate hike probability: 58%
• Jobless claims revision: -177,000 jobs (June revision downward)
• Diesel: “almost $6/gallon”
• Strategic reserve: lowest level in 40 years
• Stablecoin backing maturity limit: ≤ 93 days
• Stablecoin law timeline claim: effective January
• Gold tax: 28%
• Form 8300 trigger: >$10,000 in cash
• Transaction sizing mentioned for reporting thresholds:
  • Silver: five 1,000-ounce bars per transaction threshold (Comex-linked)
  • Gold: 3 kilograms / 100-ounce bar definition for sizing; also 1 kg = 32.15 ounces

Methodology / Step-by-Step Frameworks Mentioned

“Perception economy / narrative management” (conceptual)

• Markets are described as being conditioned to interpret Fed/employment data through a favored narrative, regardless of underlying monetary reality.

Tokenization verification checklist (practical)

• Determine what the token represents
• Identify who keeps the physical gold
• Confirm how it’s checked/audited
• Confirm how it’s redeemed/withdrawn

Stablecoin → Treasury “front-end curve pinning” model (guest’s mechanism)

• Stablecoin issuance tied to transaction activity
• Issuance purchases ≤ 93-day Treasuries
• Burn on redemption
• Result claimed: synthetic demand depresses front-end yields and alters Fed influence transmission

Disclosures / Cautions (as reflected in the provided text)

• No explicit “Not financial advice” language appears in the provided subtitles.
• Several claims are framed as opinion/intuition rather than evidence (notably the stablecoin/gold–Treasury coordination idea).
• The guest repeatedly characterizes some narratives as “ridiculous” or “noise,” indicating a strong viewpoint.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Adam Tagert (Thoughtful Money host)
• Andy Schectman (precious metals expert; CEO/co-founder of Miles Franklin)
• Miles Franklin (referenced company)
• Additional references/sources named:
  • Kevin Walsh, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell
  • Jim Sinclair (mentioned)
  • Rick Rule, Judy Shelton, Catherine Austin Fitz
  • Tom Luongo, Susan Keith, Rand Paul, Ron Paul, Doug Casey
  • Vice President Vance (Triffin-dilemma reference)
  • World Gold Council
  • Federal Reserve, ECB
  • LBMA, COMEX
  • DOJ, IRGC
  • The Financial Times
  • UAE, NDB (New Development Bank), Central Bank of Russia, Saudi Arabia, India
  • Norwegian wealth fund, Bank of England
  • Nordstrom’s (used illustratively in the Form 8300 narrative)

Explicit Promotions / Links Mentioned

• thoughtfulmoney.com/bygold (and earlier mention that connects to Andy’s team)