So würde ich 50.000 Euro anlegen mit 30! // Jürgen Schmitt

Summary

Jürgen Schmidt of Aktienlust discusses market volatility, risks around AI investment, interest rates, and how a younger investor might invest €50,000. His broad outlook for 2027 is that market leadership could shift from AI hardware suppliers to companies using AI, while currently out-of-favour sectors may offer opportunities. He stresses that the outlook is uncertain and advises against investing all available money at once.

Markets, AI and interest rates

• The sell-off in CoreWeave bonds reflects broader questions about whether large-scale AI spending will generate adequate returns. Schmidt says rising bond yields also make financing more challenging.
• The AWS chief reportedly said that AI servers pay for themselves within three years. Schmidt sees earnings reports and company guidance as important tests of whether AI investments are producing returns.
• Schmidt expects market interest could shift from AI hardware—including data centres, servers, semiconductors and equipment—to companies using AI. He names Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta as leading hyperscalers, and says traditional companies such as Walmart may also benefit from adopting AI.
• He cautions that semiconductor and memory-chip growth could slow if prices peak or capacity expands too far, including as Chinese producers build capacity. He does not expect that to necessarily end growth, but says slower growth could prompt market reversals.
• He sees potential in software companies such as ServiceNow and SAP. His thesis is that strong software firms can incorporate AI into their products, potentially improving their appeal and margins. Business models and licensing may also change.
• US ten- and thirty-year government-bond yields, as well as the French ten-year yield, were discussed as having moved toward or above 5%. Schmidt considers such rates historically familiar but says interest rates are likely to matter more to equity investors again.
• He notes that the S&P 500’s high average valuation is heavily influenced by popular AI-related stocks, while some other sectors—particularly pharmaceuticals and banks—look less expensive.

Portfolio approach and €50,000 example

Schmidt recommends separating long-term investing from more active trading.

• Long-term portfolio: Hold companies the investor understands and believes in, potentially including firms whose products they use. Schmidt gives Apple, Amazon and Meta as examples. Buy regularly and avoid frequent trading of these positions.
• Active portfolio: Keep separate capital available to trade market swings, build cash during strong periods and add during corrections. Schmidt says this approach can make volatility easier to tolerate and may allow investors to trade stocks they also own for the long term.
• Illustrative allocation for €50,000 at age 25 or 30: €30,000 for long-term investing and €20,000 for active trading. He also suggests considering how much can be added monthly, perhaps €100–€200.
• He would phase the long-term investment in over time rather than invest the whole amount immediately. He mentions buying small tranches of roughly €200, €300 or €500, initially selecting perhaps 10–15 stocks, then adding during market corrections.
• He cautions against going “all in” during a fearful market. Corrections can persist for three to six weeks, so he favours entering gradually—and potentially using half-sized tranches when uncertain.

Sentiment, sectors and individual shares

Schmidt uses CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, which he describes as a composite of seven indicators related to market behaviour, including money flows, volatility and market breadth. At the time of the interview, he says the index was in Extreme Fear. His counter-cyclical approach is to consider adding during extreme fear and, in extreme greed, consider taking some profits. He warns that sentiment indicators can be distorted—for example, when a small number of large stocks drive the market.

Schmidt sees possible opportunities in depressed consumer-goods, pharmaceutical, banking, biotech and renewable-energy stocks:

• He prefers Pepsi as a potential purchase over Coca-Cola at that time, while noting that Coca-Cola had held up exceptionally well and that he would not sell it.
• The host says British American Tobacco had an indicated dividend yield of about 6% and that he had bought it for a short-term position.
• Schmidt sees US banks as attractively valued. He also considers European banks interesting, though he notes Europe’s investment environment and spillover risks from France.
• He says pharmaceutical companies face $300–$400 billion worth of blockbuster-drug patents expiring the following year, potentially increasing the need to replenish product pipelines. He cites a positive study result involving Moderna and oncology, and describes Pfizer as cheap on valuation and dividend yield, while warning of possible negative developments and scandals.
• He flags renewable energy as a neglected area amid rising electricity demand, including demand from data centres. Some stocks in the sector, he says, had fallen to roughly one-tenth of their peak. He presents this as a potential opportunity, not a prediction.

Schmidt says he personally does not invest in bonds. He recalls investors seeking roughly 5% yields on US bonds and warns that currency movements can erase returns for euro-based investors: dollar gains may be offset if the euro strengthens. He says conservative investors may still use bonds for security and capital preservation, while he prefers investing in listed beneficiaries such as banks and insurers.

Key numbers and market references

• Three years: AI-server payback claim attributed to the AWS chief.
• Around or above 5%: Some US ten- and thirty-year government-bond yields discussed; the French ten-year yield had also risen.
• Bond and stock valuations: Schmidt says a 5% bond yield implies a bond “P/E” of 20. He compares this with an illustrative stock P/E of about 17 after allowing for equity risk.
• €50,000 allocation: €30,000 long-term / €20,000 active, invested in stages.
• €100–€200 monthly: Suggested additional contributions.
• €200–€500: Suggested individual purchase tranches, with an initial selection of 10–15 stocks.
• About 6%: British American Tobacco dividend yield cited by the host.
• $300–$400 billion: Value of blockbuster-drug patents discussed as expiring the following year.
• The host mentions a possible Nasdaq 100 rebound toward 31,000 points. This is presented as a scenario, not a forecast from Schmidt.

Disclosures and cautions

Schmidt explicitly says his sector outlook is not a recommendation and not a guarantee. He repeatedly cautions against investing too much too quickly, chasing prices or assuming a correction has ended. His comments are general market views, not an individualized portfolio recommendation.

Presenters and sources: Timo Baudzus (host); Jürgen Schmidt of Aktienlust (guest). The CNN Fear & Greed Index is cited as a market-sentiment source.