Negotiation Delusions, Return of Mechanised Warfare & Sustainability of Operations | Ukraine Update

Negotiations and the War’s Core Dispute

Willy OAM argues that the war cannot be understood mainly as a fight over territory. In his view, the central issue is Russia’s effort to limit Ukraine’s freedom to choose its alliances, especially NATO membership.

He discusses a Financial Times report that US negotiators had raised the possibility of Ukraine withdrawing from parts of Donbas in exchange for NATO membership. He calls the proposal unrealistic unless Russia has agreed to it, and says a deal focused only on land would miss the conflict’s underlying political dispute. He also questions whether the reported proposal was genuinely discussed with Moscow.

His comments about the parties’ motives and the 2022 negotiations are presented as his analysis, not as independently established facts.

Ukraine’s Recent Battlefield Gains

Citing AMK’s estimates, Willy OAM says Ukrainian counteroffensives around Komar regained about 440 square kilometres over seven months, or roughly 760 square kilometres when nearby operations are included.

He says the pace of territorial change slowed in October. Ukraine’s reported gains were 252.7 square kilometres, 62% below September, while Russian gains also fell. He notes that November has often seen larger changes in previous years, but expects winter conditions to slow operations.

Negotiating Position and Sustainability

Willy OAM suggests Ukraine may have used an intense, limited-duration offensive to improve its position before possible winter negotiations. He considers Ukraine’s position better than it was six months earlier, but stresses that local gains do not amount to an overall military advantage or imply that major occupied cities and regions can be recovered.

If the war continues, he says Ukraine’s ability to sustain its recent tempo will test whether the offensive was a viable longer-term effort or a costly push aimed at negotiations.

Pressure in Several Sectors

He highlights fighting around Velyka Novosilka, Komar and Blahodatne, as well as pressure near Orikhiv and Novopavlivka. He argues that Russian infiltrations behind Ukrainian positions can force Ukrainian troops to divert from offensive operations to clear their rear areas.

He also warns that activity around Dobropillia, Hruzke and Zolote-Kolodiaz could place further pressure on the approaches to Kostiantynivka.

Mechanised Assaults and Manoeuvre

A central distinction in the video is between:

• Mechanised assault: Vehicles bring infantry to an objective.
• Mechanised manoeuvre: Vehicles and infantry continue advancing together through successive positions.

Willy OAM describes recent Russian attacks under fog cover as mechanised assaults, with vehicles serving mainly as transport for troops. He says this does not yet demonstrate a broad return to mechanised manoeuvre.

Reports of Recent Russian Attacks

He discusses two attacks involving armoured vehicles and other transport, including a reported assault near Dobropillia and another near the Zolote-Kolodiaz area. One account cited in the video describes ten armoured personnel carriers, three tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles and other vehicles.

According to AMK, the aim may have been to insert infantry into a grey zone and build up forces near Ukrainian defences, even if vehicles were subsequently lost. Willy OAM cautions that available footage does not yet verify the full scale of the equipment losses or all reported claims.

Drones, Weather and Future Operations

The video suggests that fog and other poor-visibility conditions can hinder drone surveillance and make infiltration or reinforcement easier. Willy OAM expects more limited mechanised assaults may occur in suitable weather, and notes that some commanders still regard tanks as useful despite drone threats.

However, he remains sceptical that large-scale mechanised manoeuvre can return soon, citing the risks from drones and the need for favourable conditions. He says the outcome should be judged by changes to the front line and the available evidence, rather than claims alone.

Presenter and Contributors Cited

• Presenter: Willy OAM
• Commentators and sources: AMK, Surovikin, General Al-Khazar, Rob Lee, Molan, Delvinn and Ryan Perkins
• Online commenters: J777 and Robert (surname unclear)