❗️Новый удар Орешником - жёсткий ответ Москвы

Escalation threat between Russia and Ukraine

• Russia’s claim: Ukraine is nearing another phase of using/absorbing “Oreshnik” capabilities again. Russia warns that either a ceasefire will occur, or Russian strikes on Ukraine will become deeper and more powerful.
• Ukraine’s reply (Kirill Budanov): Ukraine will continue escalating if Russia does not stop—implying more drones/missiles and heavier warheads—adding that escalation would continue “as long as necessary.”
• Ceasefire conditions (Budanov):
  • Ukraine could stop hostilities at any time, but not on terms dictated by a Russian ultimatum.
  • The most realistic outcome is described as a de facto halt only with security guarantees to prevent Russia from treating Ukrainian territory as Russian.

Talks proposal involving Zelensky and Putin

• Zelensky’s openness: Volodymyr Zelensky allows a possible personal meeting with Putin in Miami around the G20, framed as needing a decision.
• Timing note: The subtitles state that direct leader talks have not occurred since December 2019.
• Crimea’s stance: Crimea is described as distancing itself from direct leader meetings, but says the Moscow meeting offer would remain valid if both Putin and Zelensky truly want it.

“Oreshnik” use and effectiveness debate

• Duma defense committee claim: A member of the Russian Duma defense committee says Kyiv is close to “reloading” the system and cites large strikes on Sochi and Novorossiysk as justification for potential further Russian use.
• Video commentary argument:
  • The intimidation effect of “Oreshnik” may have weakened, because earlier uses (as portrayed) did not show dramatic destruction.
  • The commentary still emphasizes the weapon’s potential to carry a nuclear payload.

Russia attacks western Ukraine supply routes; Poland warns of next targets

• Broader targeting: The subtitles say Russia is increasingly striking Ukraine’s western logistics corridors, including attacks on border crossings with Moldova and Romania.
• Poland’s warning (Donald Tusk):
  • Tusk warns that crossings near Poland could be next.
  • He claims Poland received matching intelligence—including from the CIA—suggesting Russia may target land corridors linking the EU and Ukraine.
  • Tusk says Polish services already thwarted a threat to one crossing and expects attacks or provocations at other crossings, possibly including Polish ones.

Poland–Ukraine controversy over monuments linked to UPA

• Alleged monument incident: A European Parliament member from the far-right (named “Bran” in the subtitles) is described using a sledgehammer to destroy/deface a Ukrainian monument/obelisk connected to UPA fighters, near Hrubeshevo.
• Why it’s sensitive (as framed): The subtitles depict this as painful in Poland due to historical killings of Poles by Ukrainian nationalists in the 1940s.
• Ukraine’s condemnation: Ukraine calls the action shameful and immoral.
• Counter-criticism mentioned by the commentator: The video criticizes Ukraine for reportedly doing similar monument-related actions (e.g., relocating/destroying monuments to Russian/Soviet figures such as Pushkin, Catherine II, Lomonosov, Zhukov, etc.).
• Reported backlash: The described backlash in Poland includes claims of increased verbal attacks and harassment toward Ukrainians.

Middle East: Houthis capture key points near the Bab el-Mandeb “bottleneck”

• Houthi advances: Houthis and pro-Iranian forces are reported to be pushing along Yemen’s west coast, capturing:
  • Mocha
  • Al-Hudaybah/Hubab
  • Reaching Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb strait
• Shipping impact claim: This is described as enabling control of shipping lanes—potentially restricting passage for ships without permission—supported by anti-ship missiles and drones.
• Not a full closure (per subtitles):
  • The strait is not portrayed as fully closed to all countries yet.
  • Instead, a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia is said to be in place.
• US posture (as framed):
  • Saudi leaders reportedly urged Trump to strike the Houthis.
  • The US response is framed as intelligence support, not direct bombing.
• Strategic strain argument: The subtitles argue this further strains American attention due to existing regional commitments and prior arrangements.

Economic implication: higher oil/shipping costs

• Oil price claim: The video argues that conflict around the straits helps keep oil prices high, benefiting Russia’s budget.
• Broader cost impact: For consumers and global trade, danger to sea routes is described as raising fuel and logistics costs, potentially forcing ships to route around Africa.
• Iran leverage angle: This is also described as giving Iran leverage by pressuring two major maritime oil arteries (from the east and west).

Presenters / contributors mentioned

• Kirill Budanov (head of the Ukrainian presidential office)
• Volodymyr Zelensky (Ukrainian president)
• Vladimir Putin (Russian president)
• Donald Tusk (Prime Minister of Poland)
• (Poland) CIA / American intelligence (referenced as a source; no individual named)
• Kolesnik (member of the State Duma Defense Committee, Russian)
• Bran (European Parliament member, described as damaging a Ukrainian monument)