🔴 Ed Steer's URGENT ALERT To Gold & Silver Buyers (Listen Closely)

Finance-focused subtitle summary (May 28, 2026; “Capital” podcast)

Macro / market regime claims

• Ed Steer argues there is a “paper vs physical” suppression regime across both commodity and financial markets.
• His thesis: large traders/banks manage futures (COMEX) to cap or restrict physical price moves.

He also claims Western financial markets (including equities) are treated as national security issues, and interventions aim to keep:

• 10-year US Treasury yield from exceeding roughly 4.5%
  • He cites a 4.92% high on Oct 15, 2023, which he says was not allowed to be taken out.
• Oil from rising above roughly ~$90–$100
  • He states oil is “below” that level during the conversation.

He offers a scenario (conditional, timing uncertain):

• If a Western market crash occurs, interest rates could “go skyhigh”, and the US financial system could meltdown quickly.

Gold & silver: why they’re weak despite geopolitical stress (Iran war)

Despite:

• a 3-month war with Iran, and
• the Strait of Hormuz being closed,

Steer says gold and silver haven’t rallied because COMEX futures participants allegedly “beat down” prices when they don’t want precious metals to react.

Mechanism described

• Bullion banks (via COMEX paper markets) allegedly:
  • pull bids,
  • spoof, and
  • drive prices lower, independently of physical supply-demand.

Technical / positioning framework used (COT / futures positioning)

Steer repeatedly relies on Commitment of Traders (COT)-style data about the “8 largest traders” (commercial/bank side) and their net short positioning.

Key elements he cites

• COMEX “Big 8” shorts
  • Silver: short contracts allegedly fell from about 86,870 (high, June 23 last year) to 44,632 (“as of last Friday”)
    • i.e., roughly 42,000 contracts covered.
  • Gold: he cites ~88,000 gold short contracts covered during a rally period. He also references further covering totals:
    • ~136,000 contracts of gold covered in ~18 months (including other reported traders).
• He claims the latest bottom for the downswing occurred at ~1:00 this morning in Shanghai, tied to record-low commercial net short levels.
• His argument: price can be capped while commercials can still push downside by shorting.
  • Once other traders (managed money / reportables / smaller traders) are net heavily long, he argues commercials can’t force declines as easily.
• Further downside, he says, would likely require an extreme “crash everything” liquidation event that triggers forced selling across assets.

Explicit performance / cycle view

• He frames markets as repeating “wash, rinse, and spin cycles”:
  • prices rise sharply, then get driven down.
• He characterizes the current setup as “most white hot incandescent” from a COMEX futures perspective.
• He argues precious metals are positioned for “moonshot rallies,” if the “Big 8” permit it.

Yield / bond level “line in the sand”

Steer claims the 10-year yield is being held below (or around) a threshold:

• He cites 4.92% (Oct 15, 2023) and repeatedly references a broader cap near 4.5%.
• He attributes the constraint to:
  • high US debt burden, and
  • maintaining manageable interest costs.
• He claims the Fed/authorities are buying bonds/treasuries to suppress yields.

Oil and other commodities (suppression claim + triggers)

Oil

• He says authorities do not want oil above $90 (and repeatedly mentions $100).
• In a full Middle East war, he expects suppression might break, with scenarios of:
  • oil above $100, and even
  • three-digit oil.

Other suppressed commodities mentioned

• Copper
• Platinum
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
• Rubber
• Cocoa
• Tin

Tickers / instruments / assets mentioned

Metals / trading

• Gold (no specific ticker stated)
• Silver
• SIL (silver ETF)
• SILJ (silver miners ETF)

Gold miners ETFs

• GDX
• GDXJ

COMEX / spot markets / benchmarks

• COMEX (futures exchange; no direct ticker)
• LBMA (London Bullion Market Association; no direct ticker)

Rates / macro

• US 10-year Treasury yield (no ticker)
• Dollar index (DXY-like concept; no ticker)

Equities / indices mentioned (targets of support claim)

• Dow
• NASDAQ
• (No specific equity tickers provided)

Gold-to-silver ratio and implied “fair value” range (numbers)

• He states gold:silver ratio ≈ 59 currently.
• He compares to two reference ratios:
  • “Standard” silver ratio = 15.5:1
    • implies silver could be around $300–$310/oz (based on his assumptions).
  • Geological extraction ratio ≈ 7 ounces silver per 1 ounce gold
    • implies silver could be north of ~$650/oz.
• He argues silver is more widely used and thus has higher potential.
• He also claims silver is “suppressed” and expects a “triple-digit silver” move.

Shanghai premium / arbitrage discussion (spread + explanation)

• He claims Shanghai silver spot ≈ $84 vs US spot ≈ $75, an ~11% premium.
• He argues arbitrage isn’t fully eliminated because:
  • ongoing Chinese demand supports the premium,
  • a ~20% value-added tax affects retail investors,
  • authorities may keep conditions favorable for physical shipping from West to East.
• He says the premium is already “baked” and may not change soon.

Physical flow / inventory numbers (COMEX → China/London)

Steer provides shipping/inventory assertions:

• Silver shipped out of COMEX (this year): ~170 million ounces (as of “yesterday”).
• Gold shipped out of COMEX (year-to-date): ~8.6 million ounces.
• He cites an example:
  • ~500 tons of silver shipped to Shanghai in March (he says London and COMEX/US shipped similarly).
• Shanghai inventories:
  • He claims combined Shanghai futures / gold exchange inventories were drained to about ~18 million ounces (mid-March),
  • then +~40 million ounces added by “yesterday.”
• For gold, he notes uncertainty about Shanghai receipt and suggests much may go to London (LBMA opacity).

Recommendations / how he would deploy capital (conditional + explicit)

• He says he is already “all in” and is not deploying new capital.
• If he were deploying capital, he says he would buy at what he believes is “the bottom” (“$10 on the bottom”).

If buying silver

• Prefer ETFs: SIL or SILJ.

If buying gold miners

• Prefer: GDX or GDXJ.

• He says he prefers not to “rifle shoot” individual stocks.

Disclaimers / cautions

• He explicitly includes “Not financial advice” (also echoed in the host’s narration).
• A major caveat: even if positioning is bullish, rallies only occur if the “Big 8 shorts” allow it.

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Danny (host, “Capital”; name given as Danny in subtitles)
• Ed Steer (guest; associated with “Ster Gold and Silver”)
• Ted Butler (referenced multiple times; includes a COT-related essay such as “bonfire of the silver shorts” and broader analysis)
• Alistister Mould (mentioned as another host/participant who believes about Shanghai inventories)