El Miembro del comité de inversiones de Ursus3Capital A.V. analiza valores como Bayer, Telefónica...

Finance-Focused Summary

Market and Macro Context

• U.S. Columbus Day: The New York Stock Exchange was expected to open normally, but trading volume was expected to be below average because the U.S. bond market was closed. The Japanese market was also closed. No major economic releases were expected.
• Europe: Markets were pointing to modest gains after a volatile prior week. The guest linked the mood partly to Donald Trump’s comments that there would be no bombings until after the U.S. midterm elections, while warning that geopolitical developments could quickly change sentiment.
• Automotive industry: A reported, not-yet-finalized EU arrangement would allow imports of 350,000 plug-in hybrids annually from December 1. The guest viewed agreements as preferable to open trade conflict, but said European automakers need to improve their competitiveness against China.

Stocks and Investment Views

• Bayer: Shares were quoted around €43.75, compared with a caller’s entry or reference price of €46. The guest saw support near €40 and was positive over the medium to long term, saying he would not sell. He highlighted healthcare’s relatively countercyclical characteristics and suggested AI could reduce pharmaceutical research and development costs over the next 8–10 years. A longer-term price target in the subtitles is garbled and cannot be reliably stated.
• Repsol: A caller reported a 120% gain. The guest congratulated them and suggested setting a stop-loss at a level that would preserve roughly 80–90% of the gain. The precise level would depend on the investor’s preferences; the suggested distance from the current price is unclear in the subtitles. He would not sell immediately, citing the company’s performance, dividend, and refining margins. If a U.S.–Iran agreement brought oil back to $75–$80 per barrel, versus a price cited around $105, Repsol could face lower earnings and its share price could fall.
• Deutsche Telekom and Telefónica: The guest said satellite-network competition associated with Starlink could pressure traditional operators through lower prices and margins. He considered Telefónica more exposed, though both companies would need to adapt.
• JFrog (FROG): Described as a mid-sized software company, up 122% over a year. The guest saw growth and potential acquisition interest as attractions, and said it could benefit from AI. Debt and leverage were the main cautions; despite that, he considered it worth investing in.
• Amper: The guest was positive on its trajectory for the year and generally liked established small and mid-sized companies with specialist market niches. He cautioned that higher interest rates raise financing costs, a particular risk for smaller firms.
• Iberdrola: Viewed as a leading Spanish and global utility with further potential over the coming years. However, after its recent rise, the guest advised caution on entry and emphasized that a strong company is not automatically attractive at any price.
• ACS: The recent pullback was attributed mainly to profit-taking after a strong run, rather than a fundamental deterioration. The guest highlighted ACS’s international standing and potential U.S. infrastructure demand, given aging infrastructure. He also said markets could have upside in October–December, while describing September as a historically weak month.
• Puig: The caller was reportedly up 7%. The guest was positive on the company’s prospects but said luxury-sector performance depends heavily on Chinese consumption. He highlighted the importance of the October–December quarter, especially the holiday season for fragrance sales.
• Neinor Homes: The share price was described as having moved from about €20 early in the year to €15, and then to around €16.70. The guest cited earnings per share above €1.33, saw the share as more likely to head toward €20 than €15, and estimated 15–20% upside from the then-current price. He noted that Spanish housing policy and the outcome of elections expected at the end of November could affect the sector.
• Diageo: Shares were quoted around 1,643; the subtitles do not clearly specify the currency or unit. They had fallen from about 1,900 to 1,400 in March–April, recovered toward 1,800, and then stood near 1,640. The guest saw a target around 2,000, implying roughly 15–20% upside, and noted a dividend yield of almost 3%. He saw support near the current level and described about 1,900 as a significant ceiling.
• Nvidia: Used as a comparison to illustrate the risk of buying after a large rally. The guest said it had risen from around $40–$50 to above $200, while suggesting it could reach $300–$350. His point was that even a promising company may not be a good purchase at every price.

Golden Pick: Asset Manager

The guest’s selection was Independance, a France-based asset manager. He highlighted a product focused on European small- and mid-cap companies, with a tilt toward France and exposure to other markets. He described its holdings as interesting, relatively unfamiliar companies that may be less correlated with the broader market, and recommended studying the manager further.

Assets, Sectors, and Instruments Mentioned

• Equities: Bayer, Repsol, Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica, JFrog (FROG), Amper, Iberdrola, ACS, Puig, Neinor Homes, Diageo, and Nvidia.
• Other named companies and sectors: European automakers; healthcare and pharmaceuticals; software and AI; telecommunications and satellite networks; utilities; infrastructure and construction; luxury goods and fragrances; housing and real estate.
• Other assets and markets: Crude oil, U.S. government and bond markets, and European small- and mid-cap equities.

Disclosures

No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was included. The comments were presented as the guest’s views and included company-specific opinions and indicative price levels.

Presenters and Sources

• Rafael Ojeda (also rendered “Lojeda” in the subtitles), member of the Investment Committee at Ursus3Capital A.V.
• Capital Radio; the host is not clearly identified in the subtitles. Antonio Castelo is mentioned in passing.