J’ai Investi toutes mes Économies en Bourse…

Video premise / “series” structure

• The presenter launches a monthly series documenting the evolution of his stock portfolio—what he buys, sells, and why, with time codes included in the video description.
• He repeatedly frames the content as educational/personal experience, not a formal recommendation.

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Core investing framework (methodology / step-by-step ideas)

Equities as “future profit”

• The idea: stocks represent discounted future profits.
• Investors essentially pay a price (implicitly a multiple) for those future earnings.

Valuation via “time to recoup”

• He uses a “profit ratio” / earnings yield-style intuition:
  • Example: Volkswagen (VW)
    • “Profit ratio” cited: 7.94
    • Simplified interpretation: if profits remain constant and dividends distribute fully, payback ~7.94 years.
  • Example comparison: Google
    • “Profit/payback” interpreted as about ~16 years
    • Used to argue that Google trades at a higher price / lower current earnings yield than VW in this framing.

Two broad portfolio strategies

• ETFs / broad market
  • Goal: buy index exposure (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ, MSCI World) to reduce stock-picking risk.
• Concentrated single stocks (“hidden gems”)
  • Goal: higher upside from specific companies.
  • Trade-off: higher risk due to volatility and idiosyncratic blow-up risk (e.g., scandals, demand misses, etc.).

Concentration + volatility control using correlation

• He conceptually uses a correlation matrix to reduce portfolio volatility:
  • Example: correlation ~0.68 between Google and Amazon, implying both often move in the same direction.
• He aims for lower correlation where possible, but tries not to sacrifice “quality” too much.

Positioning plan (allocation target)

• Target allocation:
  • ~30% of the stock portfolio in ETFs
  • Remaining ~70% across ~10-ish concentrated individual holdings

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Macro / market context referenced

• AI as a valuation and risk driver
  • Concern about an AI “bubble” scenario
  • Also mentions broader recession risk
• Mentions tech concentration themes (e.g., “Magnificent 7”)

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Assets & tickers explicitly mentioned

Indices / index ETFs

• S&P 500 (referenced via SP500 / S&P 500 ETF discussions)
• NASDAQ (100 largest tech companies)
• MSCI World (international diversification concept)
• Fidelity US Quality Income ETF (held)
  • “Fidelity US Quality Income”

Individual stocks / companies

• GOOGL / Google
• MSFT / Microsoft (also references Azure)
• VOW3 / Volkswagen
• SPGI / S&P Global
• ASML / ASML
• NFLX / Netflix
• MA / Mastercard (compared vs Visa; also mentions stablecoins threat)
• META / Meta (Facebook)
• AMZN / Amazon
• “Warner share” / “Warner” appears to be promotional wording (unclear issuer due to subtitle issues); later clarified as related to opening an account.

Competition / market context companies/services (not necessarily portfolio holdings)

• Streaming: Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max, Apple TV (churn comparisons)
• AI/cloud infrastructure: “AI models,” “data centers,” TPUs (Google chips)
• Stablecoins (concept only; no specific ticker)

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Key numbers, performance metrics, and valuations

Historical market return (ETF context)

• S&P 500 historical return: 8.9% per year (excluding dividends), 1977–2023

His portfolio performance (explicit year metrics)

• 2024: +26% vs S&P 500 ~+25%
• 2025: +36% vs S&P 500 ~+17%
• 2026 (first half / weighted return): +15.3% vs S&P 500 ~+9.5%
• Last three years (active investing portion):
  • ~+100% (roughly doubled capital)
  • If only in S&P 500: ~+60%
  • He claims overperformance of ~half, acknowledging luck

Position sizing / portfolio structure

• Total holdings: 9 positions (“nine lines”)
• ETF portion: 16% in Fidelity US Quality Income (held)
• Example position weights mentioned:
  • Microsoft: ~4% (smallest)
  • ASML: ~4%
  • Netflix: ~4.2%
  • Mastercard: ~10.7%
  • Meta: ~10.7%
  • Amazon: ~17.6%
  • Google: largest; target to keep ideally ≤25%, but currently larger
• Future plan: increase ETFs toward ~30%
• Future structure aim: keep portfolio under 12 lines for simplicity

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Specific stock performance and valuation numbers

Microsoft (MSFT)

• Performance: -5%
• Revenue growth: +17% over the last year
• Action intent: expects to sell soon (position ~4%)

S&P Global (SPGI)

• Biggest loss: -10%
• AI-related concern: impact on its “moat,” though he believes it’s limited

ASML

• Performance: +140% (best performer)
• Valuation: ~54x earnings
• Action intent: sell ~1/4 soon due to “projection exceeded reality” / valuation

Netflix (NFLX)

• Performance: -0.5% (small loss)
• Streaming churn/retention figures discussed:
  • Prime Video: ~3.5–4%
  • HBO Max: ~6%
  • Disney+: ~5%
  • “Ul/Paramount”: ~5%
  • Apple TV: “~6% market share” (as cited)
  • Netflix: ~2% (lower churn / better retention)
• Valuation:
  • Historically around 77 (circa 2021; described as “short profit ratio”)
  • Now ~20–22
• Growth expectations:
  • EPS growth expectation: ~25% per year
  • Advertising expectation: by 2026 ~ $2B advertising revenue (~+40% YoY as claimed)
• Subscribers:
  • ~300M subscribers worldwide
  • Potential: ~600M long-term

Mastercard (MA)

• Performance: +5.7%
• Revenue growth (last 5 years): ~13% annual
• EPS growth: ~15%
• Valuation: P/E ~31 (stated as price-to-earnings ~31)

Meta (META)

• Growth metrics cited:
  • Revenue growth: ~18% per year over last three years (and mentions “~13%” elsewhere)
  • EPS: +12% this year (plus “earnings per share up …”)
• Valuation: ~22x profits (P/E-like claim)
• Risks noted:
  • Large AI investment spend
  • “Off-balance-sheet debt” via internal structures affecting EPS for years

Amazon (AMZN)

• Performance: ~+15%
• Revenue growth: ~+8% last year
• EPS growth: ~+70% over 1 year
• Valuation: P/E ~20 (vs 10-year median ~44)
• Business/revenue breakdown numbers discussed:
  • $269B: “Amazon sales business”
  • $172B: “third-party sales side”
  • Advertising business: ~$68B
  • Subscription revenues: ~$6B
• Net profit cited: ~$78B

Google (GOOGL)

• Price points mentioned:
  • Dropped to ~$147 (April; described as about half of today)
  • Briefly cited around ~$400, then back to ~$329
• Revenue composition:
  • 55% of revenue from Google Search
  • Search revenue: ~$224B annually
• Growth cited:
  • Company size growth: ~+24% YoY
  • Search growth: ~+17%
  • Cloud growth: ~+82%
• Valuation:
  • P/E ~16
  • Forward P/E ~24
  • He says he won’t sell unless > $400 (then he’d “lighten” the position)
• Capex / cash flow concern:
  • AI/data center capex cited as over ~$100B
  • Mentions negative free cash flow (first time), arguing depreciation accounting vs actual cash cost

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Risk management and cautions (explicit)

• Multiple disclaimers:
  • “I am not an investment advisor.”
  • Don’t blindly follow his strategy
  • Investing involves risks; not everything will be profitable
• Concentration risk:
  • In a concentrated portfolio, if one line goes wrong, it can hurt very badly
  • He emphasizes rebalancing because some positions are “gigantic” relative to portfolio size
• AI-related risk warning:
  • Many holdings are AI-exposed
  • A major AI crisis could pressure valuations, though he believes large companies may survive

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Trading / action intents explicitly stated

• Microsoft: sell soon (position ~4%, currently ~-5%)
• ASML: sell ~1/4 within the next few weeks (valuation ~54x earnings)
• Google: potentially lighten if price goes above $400
• ETFs: increase ETF allocation toward ~30% (especially by shifting new purchases)
  • Consider MSCI World to reduce reliance on U.S.-only equities
• Future structure: keep under 12 lines

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Broker / sponsorship disclosures (finance-adjacent)

• Sponsored by XTB (broker)
  • Claims: 0% commission on stocks and ETFs up to €100,000/month
  • Claims: 2.9 million customers
  • Regulated in France by AMF
• Promotional offer mentioned:
  • “Free Warner share” between Sept 1–25
  • Deposit €50
  • First investment within 15 days of opening a securities account
  • Note: subtitles suggest a mismatch with “PEA” (noted as likely subtitle error)
• Presenter reminder:
  • He states he is not an investment advisor; content is not advice

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Presenters / sources

• Presenter/narrator: “Fuse” (also states: “Hey everyone, this is Fuse.”)
• Sponsored company/source: XTB
• Referenced YouTuber/source: Thomas Frank (monthly contributions to S&P 500; mentioned as inspiration)
• Tool mentioned: Bagueer (research app), plus referenced creator Hugo
• Rating agency mentioned: S&P Global (as a company)
• Regulator mentioned: AMF (France’s financial markets authority)