Alastair Crooke: Insurrection & Regime Change Coming to Saudi Arabia – A New Middle East Emerging

Summary

Alastair Crooke argues that Saudi Arabia is politically vulnerable, and that its greatest danger comes not from the Houthis (Ansar Allah) alone but from internal resentment. He says Mohammed bin Salman has weakened the monarchy’s traditional sources of legitimacy: its relationship with the religious establishment and its accommodation with tribal and royal elites. In Crooke’s account, centralizing power, sidelining clerics, unevenly distributing oil wealth, taking tribal land for projects such as NEOM, and humiliating princes in the Ritz-Carlton affair have all deepened opposition.

He also describes two immediate pressures on Saudi Arabia. First, Houthi attacks on oil infrastructure could damage the country’s ability to produce and export oil for an extended period. Second, he argues that Saudi imports depend heavily on oil revenues, so a prolonged export disruption could force either a sharp currency devaluation or major sales of foreign-exchange reserves, with wider financial-market consequences. These are Crooke’s assessments; the interview does not independently verify the figures or forecasts.

Crooke sees outside military assistance as unlikely to resolve the crisis. He doubts that the United States, Egypt, Pakistan, or Turkey would—or could—provide decisive support, and says Saudi forces are primarily structured to protect the royal family rather than fight a protracted war in Yemen. He speculates that tribal and other regional actors may be discussing a political settlement that would redistribute oil wealth and political influence, while stressing that he cannot confirm what is happening.

The discussion broadens to a possible crisis of legitimacy across the region. Crooke portrays several Gulf monarchies and Jordan as politically fragile, and links that fragility to concentrated wealth, historical boundaries, and external backing. He frames the upheaval as part of a longer erosion of the region’s post-colonial political order, while noting the economic hardship facing populations in countries such as Egypt.

Crooke expects Iran to play a role in any regional reordering, but says the change should not be understood simply as Shiite dominance. He describes the Houthis as having their own history and political traditions, rather than being merely Iranian proxies. More broadly, he suggests that a new settlement could involve a different distribution of political power and economic wealth, though he offers no firm prediction about its outcome.

On Israel, Crooke argues that a strategy centered on defeating Iran and securing regional hegemony is increasingly untenable. He cites concerns about military manpower, morale, and logistics, and says Israel’s domestic politics are moving further to the right. He considers accommodation with regional rivals possible in principle, but thinks Israel is more likely in the near term to retreat into greater isolation. He also warns that a major economic or technology-market downturn in the United States could affect Israel.

Presenters and Contributors

• Glenn Diesen — presenter
• Alastair Crooke — guest and analyst