Morning Preparation

Finance / Markets Overview (CTA & Macro context)

CTAs / positioning (short-term futures signals)

• Metals
  • Gold/silver/palladium: added to shorts, with silver emphasized as having a large proportion added to short positions.
• Diesel / oil-related
  • Diesel: “decline” noted.
  • Brent: described as contextually bearish / less momentum.
• Crude oil
  • Focus on WTI vs Brent: framed as neutral, sensitive to political headlines.
• USD / FX
  • Dollar index (Dixie): big longs still in play.
• EUR & GBP
  • Big shorts on the euro and British pound “working great.”
• Equity index futures
  • NQ and ES longs: gradually added earlier.
  • European confirmation: DAX cited.

Macro / catalysts mentioned

• PMI and ISM PMI scheduled for ~9:45–10:00.
• Inflation data referenced as potentially driving gold/metal price dynamics.
• Middle East / Yemen / Saudi oil pipeline headlines
  • Saudi attack described as “not so critical”.
  • Later discussion referenced Iran / Strait of Hormuz.
• Europe politics
  • France budget problems and early elections in Spain were noted as affecting the euro and gold.

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Metals: Gold & Silver levels / scenarios

Gold

• Consolidation after China gold buying period:
  • “Bottom around 4,390” (spot/perpetual referenced; Zulu contract mentioned).
• Plan B (conditional)
  • If price breaks down the daily low and holds under support, the speaker wants a clear plan B for larger correction / new lows.
• Plan A
  • After passing 43 on Zulu, attempt to return toward the 45 zone (resistance).
• Related GLD trading range
  • Consolidation around 385–375 (also referenced as 386–376).
  • If 375 is lost, then 370 is “in play” with “more panic below.”
• Momentum context
  • “From 4,000 to 4,700” is referenced as a prior gold move; price is returning near the start of that move.

Silver

• Core question: whether 55 / 50 / 45 are a bottom (explicit levels).
• If silver loses ~57.5
  • “New lows in the game.”
• If it holds above
  • Opportunity for Plan A with little risk on a larger timeframe.
• CTA leaning
  • Speaker: “not helping us” and “leaning more towards short metal positions”
  • Implying higher chance of new lows and potential retest of ~50 ± 5.

Tickers / instruments (mentioned)

• GLD, SLV, gold, silver
  • (“Zulu/spot/perpetual” referenced; no explicit futures ticker symbol beyond those references.)

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Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): neutral base case, war risk, support/resistance map

Base view

• Neutral territory
• Speaker: “currently have no positions in oil.”

Fair value / reference range

• 90–100 described as a fair price range.

Risk trigger (geopolitical/escalation)

• Additional warship (possibly 10,000 soldiers) heading toward the Middle East.
• If escalation worsens:
  • “New highs for oil this year could become a reality.”
  • Path described as a rapid move from ~80 to 100 with limited spectacular correction.

Support / downside cover targets mentioned

• If “good news” occurs and price drops:
  • If below 90–89, attempt to cover around 82.5, 82, 80.
• First major support: 80
• Major consolidation range: 91–100
• “Losing one level means support breakdown.”

If larger breakdown occurs

• Mentions:
  • Level around 140
  • Left-side gap support around 130
  • Then 125–130 as first support

Upside / escalation scenario

• If consolidation persists with geopolitical pressure:
  • Attempt to create new historical highs this year.

Tickers / instruments (mentioned)

• WTI, Brent, “diesel,” and oil futures generally.

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U.S. Indices (ES, NQ, SPX, SPY): CTA-neutral + options “pinning” framework

Neutral-to-corrective index regime (CTAs vs price action)

• SPX/ES
  • Trying to get through neutral territory.
  • If momentum continues downward → expect larger correction.
• NQ
  • Similar logic: if continuation → expect price to follow CTA patterns (correction first).

Key targets and decision points

• ES Plan A (upside)
  • 7,800 at UDT call options support.
• Initiating shorts
  • Wait for breakdown of call options resistance / UDT resistance.
• Initiating longs on Nasdaq (NQ)
  • Wait until SPY and SPX break through their relevant CODT call option resistance levels.

Options-derived “pinning” & breakout gating

• “Pinning effect” defined as:
  • Price stays near call option resistance levels.
  • Breakouts can occur in high volatility.
• Divergence mode
  • ES vs NQ may behave differently at call-resistance levels.

VIX

• VIX ~16.13 cited as not “crazy/unpredictable.”

Tickers / instruments (mentioned)

• ES, NQ, SPX, SPY, VIX (also NASDAQ and S&P mentioned).

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Semiconductors & Mega-cap / “Magnificent six”

SOXX (Semiconductor ETF)

• SOXX in a wide range between:
  • roughly 0.8 call resistance
  • and daily demand
• Approaching a decision zone around ~587.70
• Mentions an open gap since Friday and whether it closes (gap-fill question)
• Fibonacci referenced:
  • 50% zone matched a recent bottom and could be a “decision-making” area

Individual semiconductor names mentioned

• Nvidia (NVDA): struggling with call option resistance / ZODT call resistance.
• AMD: already breaking through call option resistance and ZODT resistance.
• SK Hynix: similar to NVDA—struggling (not yet breaking).
• Micron: mentioned as a comparison route to SK Hynix (no separate valuation level given).
• Broadcom (AVGO): below call options resistance.
• Intel (INTC): earlier downward momentum; now “creating daily demand,” near important levels.

“Magnificent six” names

• Apple (AAPL): “at rest,” in range.
• Microsoft (MSFT): breakout attempt between 519 and 523 to enter a COTEE resistance zone and a 1-day high.
• Google/Alphabet (GOOGL): at rest; COTEE resistance in play.
• Tesla (TSLA): watching delivery-data related traffic; possible topping of Friday’s move.
• Amazon (AMZN): remains in a broader range; “not interesting” per speaker.
• Meta (META): emphasized; repeatedly tested resistance—question whether it holds or drops toward put support / 0 DTE support.

Magnificent Seven ETF

• Discussed with a Fibonacci midpoint and a zone around 72.74
• Question: whether price goes above midpoint or risks closing the gap down (gap mention linked to Friday).

Tickers / instruments (mentioned)

• SOXX, NVDA, AMD, SK Hynix, INTC, AVGO
• AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA, AMZN, META
• “Magnificent Seven ETF” (ticker not explicitly stated)

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ES/NQ intraday backtest stats & “framework” (explicit methodology)

The speaker uses a structured options/levels approach.

Methodology / step-by-step framework (as stated)

1. Identify call option resistance / UDT/CODT/ZODT call resistance levels.
2. Watch for pinning (price holding near call resistance) and conditions for breakout in high volatility.
3. Perform a divergence check (e.g., ES vs NQ; SPY vs SPX) to avoid entering against confirmation signals.
4. Apply conditional trade triggers:
   • Long NQ only after SPY & SPX break their relevant call resistance.
   • Short only after breakdown of call resistance / UDT resistance (timing “if the time and place are right”).
5. Use gamma regime concepts:
   • Positive gamma → less intense movement
   • Negative gamma → wider range / more volatile moves (can be targeted as a “breakout into negative gamma zone”)
6. Run backtesting on continuous futures contracts (explicitly mentioned for NQ continuous).
7. Compute/compare metrics for scenarios such as:
   • breakout probability
   • return rate
   • breakthrough and close outcomes

Quantitative backtest outputs (NQ continuous)

• Probability of pullback today after breaking call option resistance: 45%
• Average movement: 164 points
• Intraday “breakout during the day” return rates listed: 45, 45, 39, 50, 47
• End-of-day close metrics:
  • In 89.4% of cases, they “remain below the daily high”
  • “Break through daily high at end of day” expected closing movement:
    • +137 points above daily high in a typical case
    • worst case mentioned: +707.12 points
  • Additional emphasis on “breakout at close” implications for end-of-day condition

ES specific options probabilities & targets

• Call option resistance at/near 7,800
  • Chance call option resistance holds at market close (clarified): 70.4%
  • Return rate: 36% (closing below resistance again at end of day)
  • Average movement: 34 points
• ES put support mentioned
  • Put support: 7,700 (described as a powerful magnet if downward momentum)
  • If 0 DTE put support breaks:
    • Return rate: 56% closes above it
    • Average downside move: 56–56.85 points
    • target area cited: 7,669.99

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FX: Dollar Index (Dixie), EUR/GBP, USD/JPY ranges & levels

Dixie / USD

• Above ~112 still holding
• Loss sequence noted: 112 → 111 → 1.1
• After breaking 112, expects “faster moves down”
• Also noted: after European inflation data, the 112 level was still holding
• Another USD-related sequence:
  • Target above 103.5 may be in play if inflation supports it
  • Resistance milestones: 103.5, 104.5, 105.5

EUR/GBP

• CTA reiterated: big shorts on the euro and British pound working well.
• British pound levels:
  • “Place support above the main ODTE resistance”
  • Above 134: Plan A

USD/JPY

• Still in consolidation
• If dollar grows and no intervention: quick cross 160
• Key support zone: 156.8–157
  • Losing it: expect drop of ~100 points to 152
  • If then 156–155 fails: attempt to attack recent lows

Tickers / instruments (mentioned)

• Dollar index (Dixie), EUR, GBP, USD/JPY

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DAX / Nasdaq volatility & index ranges

DAX

• “62 62 60” mentioned
• DAX prospect: ~60 points and potentially more volatility
• Possible test around 25 20.5.67 ± (range target referenced, but partially garbled)
• If it passes:
  • “main resistance”
  • potential target 26 to 26.1

NQ

• “~450…500 points on the NQ” prospect
• First correction expected after a large drop

Tickers / instruments (mentioned)

• DAX, NQ

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Disclosures / cautions

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer present in the subtitles provided.
• Speaker explicitly states oil exposure status:
  • “currently have no positions in oil.”

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Presenters / sources mentioned (at end)

• Patrick (referenced as giving the floor)
• Quinn (referenced for help on gamma pinning/options topics)
• Mentor Q (named framework/system)
• Maciej (joint trading session announcement)
• Ryan Daniel (bootcamp recording referenced)