Intel crasht historisch: Darum steht Aktienmarkt vor dem Kippen + spannender Substanzwert / BRIEFING

Market and Macro Overview

Big Tech experienced a sharp sell-off despite generally solid results. The presenter argues that markets are judging companies especially harshly for elevated investment spending and weak free cash flow.

• Microsoft was rewarded for strong results and more moderate capital expenditure (Capex).
• Alphabet fell amid weaker search growth and substantial cash burn. The presenter says about $500 billion in market capitalization was wiped out.
• Amazon also sold off despite very strong AWS growth, with negative free cash flow and softer advertising cited as concerns.

Other earnings reactions included:

• Intel: Fell more than 20%; high memory prices were weighing on PC demand and worsening the outlook.
• Fortinet: Fell 25% after disappointing service revenue.
• ServiceNow: Fell on a slightly weaker outlook despite otherwise strong results.
• Oracle: Rose on a stronger cash-flow outlook; investors reportedly expected double-digit growth again by 2030.
• Celestica: Rose 16% after strong sales and a positive outlook.
• JetBlue: Expected to return to profit in 2027.
• Lumentum: Rose amid reported takeover interest from Marvell.
• Carvana: Benefited from record vehicle sales.
• Norwegian Cruise Line: Rose 13%.

The presenter describes a sector rotation and notes that more than 60% of S&P 500 stocks were in bear-market territory, even though headline indices might obscure the weakness. Nasdaq positioning and speculative-trading indicators were described as closer to normal than to extremes.

Bullish and Bearish Cases

Bearish case: Inflation remains elevated, oil is expensive, geopolitical risks could intensify, AI-related credit risk is rising, and a Fed rate hike is possible. Bears also point to growing investor greed and short-covering risks.

Bullish case: Economic activity remains strong, earnings and company guidance are holding up, AI investment is continuing, and positioning is not especially crowded. A positive surprise on oil, inflation, or geopolitics could fuel a rally, potentially amplified by short covering.

Rates, Inflation, and Economic Data

The Fed and ECB both held rates. The Fed’s decision was 10–2. The Fed described economic activity as growing strongly; the presenter characterizes the next rate move as uncertain rather than inevitable.

US PCE inflation was reported at 3.6% year over year, with core PCE at 3.1% and up 0.3% month over month. Bears view this as a reason for “higher for longer”; bulls say the reading was broadly in line with expectations.

US third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, slightly more than expected.

The US 10-year Treasury yield had peaked around 5.4–5.5% and was then about 4.9%. The presenter says scenarios of 6–7% yields were no longer the immediate concern.

Potential Catalysts and Risks

The presenter points to November 3 midterm elections as a potential catalyst, citing historical strength for equities after midterms. The next major inflation figures were expected November 10, with a Fed decision in December.

Oil and the Iran conflict remain key risks; the presenter cautions against predicting when they will resolve.

Anthropic IPO

Anthropic was reported to be preparing an IPO that could raise around $100 billion, implying a valuation of $1.5–$1.75 trillion. The roadshow was said to be due to start in about two weeks, with November 16 mentioned as a target date.

Reported Financial and Operating Figures

• Quarterly revenue reportedly rose about 31-fold, from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026, reaching $11.6 billion.
• Computing costs fell from 251% of revenue to 48% over that period.
• Q2 profit was reported at $974 million, with an 8.4% margin.
• Anthropic reportedly generated $2.08 of revenue per dollar of computing cost, a 5.2-fold increase since Q1 2025.
• Future purchase and lease commitments were estimated at $587 billion.
• Sales, marketing, and partnership costs were $3.17 billion in the first half of the year, versus $120 million a year earlier.

Risks and Valuation

Risks highlighted include a 335-page prospectus with 90 pages devoted to risk factors; founders’ Class F shares controlling 50.1% of voting rights; and a projected price-to-sales ratio of roughly 22–26.

Insiders could sell up to 10% of their shares in the first few trading days. The transcript also describes further permitted sales, including founder sales of up to 29% after a maximum of 180 days.

The presenter calls the company compelling but the valuation expensive and says he has not reached a final view.

Investment Approaches and Individual Ideas

Core–Satellite Approach

The presenter recommends maintaining a stable, forecast-independent core of ETFs, then adding selected individual-stock or active-strategy “satellites.”

He favors keeping a cool head during volatile markets and stresses that long-term investors should remain focused on their plan rather than react emotionally to fears of an AI crash.

German Small-Cap Strategy

Lars Winter’s strategy is to seek lesser-known niche leaders and special situations, including potential takeovers, squeeze-outs, special dividends, changes in major shareholders, and possible large orders. Areas of interest include space, automation, and energy supply.

The featured Wikifolio’s stated track record was about 6,800% over 13 years, 18.7% over one year, 13.1% one-year volatility, and a 1.1 risk-return ratio. The presenter illustrated this as €10,000 becoming about €686,000. These are historical performance figures, not a guarantee of future returns.

Holdings mentioned included Deutz, SGL Carbon, Jungheinrich, Kion, Deutsche Wohnen, Smartbroker Holding, and Evonik, as well as cash and an Xtrackers Overnight Rate Swaps ETF. Other named past or notable holdings included Norma Group and Klöckner.

GTT

GTT was presented as a potential value opportunity. It licenses technology and insulation systems for LNG tanker tanks, which must keep liquefied gas at around −162°C. Its reported EBITDA margin was about 68% in the first half of the year.

The stock had fallen nearly 12% in one day after sales missed expectations and delivery timing changed, but new orders were recovering: 80 orders in the first nine months, versus 27 a year earlier.

Other Stock and Sector Views

• SK Hynix was highlighted for strong results and a rebound in its share price. The presenter noted a divergence between record South Korean semiconductor exports and a sharp fall in the relevant index or ETF, while still describing the semiconductor sector as attractive.
• The presenter suggested that investors should also consider what not to buy. He cited delivery companies, Lufthansa and airlines generally, and automakers. Accenture, Netflix, PayPal, and DocuSign would not be high on his shopping list.

Assets, Companies, and Instruments Mentioned

Stocks and companies: Amazon, Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, Intel, Fortinet, Oracle, ServiceNow, Celestica, JetBlue, ADT, Lumentum, Marvell, Carvana, Norwegian Cruise Line, XP, Petrobras, Reddit, Roblox, Enphase, Adyen, SK Hynix, GTT, Anthropic, SpaceX, Meta, Deutz, SGL Carbon, Jungheinrich, Kion, Deutsche Wohnen, Smartbroker Holding, Evonik, Norma Group, Klöckner, Accenture, Netflix, PayPal, DocuSign, and Lufthansa.

Sectors and themes: Big Tech, cloud computing, AI, semiconductors, cybersecurity, advertising, PCs, airlines, cruise lines, Brazilian equities, German small caps, LNG shipping, automation, energy, and space.

Markets and instruments: S&P 500, Nasdaq, ETFs, the Xtrackers Overnight Rate Swaps ETF, US Treasuries/10-year bonds, oil, digital currencies, credit-default swaps (CDS), short positions, and IPO shares.

Disclosures and Sources

The presenter states that the comments are not investment advice, are his personal opinion, and that investors should consider the risks. Neither he nor the channel accepts liability for potential losses.

The video also promotes a paid or partner Wikifolio strategy and a Daily Briefing trial, advertised as free until November 30.

Presenters and sources mentioned: Mario Lochner (presenter); Lars Winter (Wikifolio trader behind “Einstein”); Ken Fisher; Mohn and Link; the Federal Reserve; the ECB; and Stern.