Jak łączyć ETFy i zbudować zyskowny portfel? w 2026 NIE inwestuję w USA. Do końca hossy w PL daleko.

Summary

The presenter explains how to combine geographically diversified ETFs and why he is leaning toward emerging markets, including Poland, rather than the US over the next few years. This is a personal, active-market view—not a recommendation for passive investors to change their plans. He still expects the US to be attractive over the longer term.

Main investment ideas

• Index ETFs offer a simple long-term approach. Cap-weighted indexes increase the weight of companies that grow and reduce or remove laggards through periodic rebalancing. This can counter investors’ tendency to sell winners too early and seek bargains among falling stocks.
• Stay invested. The presenter argues that simply owning equities and investing regularly matters more than trying to predict every market move. Passive investors can continue holding broad-market ETFs without acting on his regional outlook.
• Emerging-market outlook. Emerging markets have consolidated for about 17 years while losing ground relative to the S&P 500; they performed better in 2000–2008. The presenter says EM has outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over roughly the past year, and forecasts point to faster EM profit growth in 2026.
• Why US leadership could pause. The US benefited from technology and digital-services dominance, investor confidence, a strong dollar, and the 2007–2014 shale revolution, which strengthened its energy position. Possible countervailing factors include the valuation gap between the US and emerging markets, faster expected EM earnings growth, AI-related demand reaching Asian suppliers and raw materials, and a weaker US dollar.
• Dollar caution. A weaker dollar may support emerging markets, but the presenter rejects claims of imminent de-dollarization. He expects the dollar to strengthen again at some point, possibly by the next US presidential election. He also notes that a weaker dollar can boost US multinationals’ overseas earnings when translated back into dollars.
• Poland. He views the first roughly 2.5 years of the Polish bull market as a recovery from undervaluation, followed by about a year of broader-based strength. He predicts that the bull market in Polish small- and mid-cap stocks may have further to run, barring “black swan” events.
• Long-term view. Despite his near-term preference for emerging markets, he expects the US to remain attractive over a longer horizon—particularly if US companies continue growing earnings and the dollar strengthens.

Portfolio construction discussed

The illustrative weights below are the presenter’s estimates from the video; they are not performance forecasts.

• Broad global ETF: The MSCI ACWI-type index discussed has about 64% US exposure. Japan, the UK, and Canada together account for about 11%, while China represents about 3% and India about 1.5%. The presenter describes this as a passive option that adjusts as market capitalizations change.
• S&P 500 plus a global ETF: A 50/50 split may produce roughly 82% US exposure, so combining these two can increase rather than reduce US concentration.
• Global ETF plus emerging-markets ETF: A 50/50 allocation to an ACWI-type fund and an EM fund is estimated to yield about 32% US, 15% China, 11% Taiwan, 9% India, and 7.5% South Korea.
• Developed-markets ETF plus EM ETF: In the developed-markets index described, the US is about 72%, Japan 5.5%, and the UK and Canada about 3.5% each. A 50/50 developed/EM mix is estimated to yield 36% US, 13.5% China, 10% Taiwan, 7.7% India, and 6.6% South Korea.
• More concentrated growth approach: Pairing an S&P 500 ETF with an EM ETF—or substituting Nasdaq exposure for the S&P 500—can emphasize the US and Asian technology regions. The presenter cautions against making a long-term portfolio dependent only on the semiconductor supply chain.
• Risk: The more concentrated growth combinations could experience drawdowns of 30–40%, which the presenter describes as recurring rather than exceptional for such a portfolio.

Strategy and practical approach

The presenter describes a Global Equity Momentum (GEM) approach that switches between a Nasdaq-focused ETF and an emerging-markets ETF, buying whichever performed better over the previous 12 months. He says a signal on 1 January 2026 favored emerging markets over the Nasdaq ETF. He presents this as an active strategy he uses or is considering, not a requirement for passive investors.

He says he may eventually take profits on Polish shares and shift some capital back toward US equities if Polish valuations become extreme or US momentum returns. He is also interested in Polish small- and mid-cap exposure through sWIG80 and mWIG40.

Assets, indexes, and instruments mentioned

• Indexes and markets: MSCI ACWI (rendered ambiguously in the subtitles as “MSCI ADV/Advi”), MSCI World/developed markets, MSCI Emerging Markets, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Polish WSE, sWIG80, and mWIG40.
• ETF tickers as rendered or likely intended: IUSQ/“USQ,” ISAC, EIMI, IS3N, and a Nasdaq-focused ticker rendered as “NZDQ” in the subtitles. Some ticker spellings are unclear because of subtitle errors.
• Companies: Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft.
• Regions and countries: US, China, India, Taiwan, Brazil, Poland, South Korea, Japan, UK, Canada, Germany, and France.
• Other exposures: US dollar, Polish złoty, oil, gas, and energy resources.

Disclosures and cautions

• The presenter identifies XTB as a channel partner, says he uses it, and states that it charges no commissions up to €100,000 monthly turnover. He also describes using currency exchange and foreign-currency subaccounts to fund investments. This is a broker promotion, not an independent comparison.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The presenter does say viewers should not necessarily copy his active approach, that his outlook is uncertain, and that passive investors can stay with their existing strategy.
• He gives no guarantee that emerging markets will outperform over the next one to three years and acknowledges the possibility of unforeseen shocks.

Presenter and sources

Presenter: Unnamed host of the Zawód Inwestor channel.

Named market references: MSCI indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and companies including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft. No external analyst or research source is identified in the subtitles.