Douglas Macgregor: Ukraine War Ending? Europe on the Brink

Summary

Host Glenn Diesen and retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor discuss the war in Ukraine, European diplomacy, and the future of NATO and the EU. Macgregor presents a sharply critical and often speculative view of Western policy; his claims and forecasts are his own.

• European outreach to Moscow: Diesen asks about Finnish and Norwegian leaders renewing direct contact with Vladimir Putin after years of diplomatic boycotts. Macgregor sees this as evidence that European governments are beginning to recognize the need for negotiations and that the Western alliance is divided. He argues that U.S. President Donald Trump is focused elsewhere and has little interest in leading Europe.

• Ukraine and the prospects for a settlement: Macgregor portrays Ukraine as severely weakened and says its population wants the war to end. He argues that Kyiv’s government is being sustained by Western support and foreign personnel, and that Ukrainian forces are deteriorating. He dismisses the prospect of a negotiated settlement under President Volodymyr Zelensky, while predicting that Russia will continue military pressure until Ukraine’s forces surrender. He also suggests Russia may seek control of Odesa and surrounding territory—an assertion and prediction, not an established outcome—and says Moscow would prefer a Ukrainian government friendly to Russia rather than responsibility for governing the whole country.

• NATO, the EU, and European leadership: Macgregor describes NATO as ineffective and predicts that it will gradually disappear, with the EU also at risk of fragmentation. He argues that European leaders lack the military capacity and public backing for a confrontation with Russia, and that European states will eventually pursue their own dealings with Moscow. He identifies Germany as pivotal, predicting that it could break with NATO and the EU and restore commercial ties with Russia, including energy trade.

• European domestic crises: Macgregor argues that several European governments face a crisis of political legitimacy, economic strain, and public discontent. He predicts major political upheaval, potentially involving the military, and calls for European armies to become more nationally oriented. He frames these developments as a possible restoration of state authority, while offering little detail on how such a transition might occur. He also makes sweeping claims about immigration and national identity, particularly in France.

• U.S. diplomacy and negotiations: Macgregor characterizes Trump’s approach to negotiations as short-term and focused on securing a politically marketable result. He doubts that proposed talks involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine will resolve the conflict, arguing that Russia—not Washington or Kyiv—will determine the outcome. He says Moscow’s central concern is the wider European security order, not simply territorial questions in Donbas.

• Warnings about escalation: Macgregor says the prospect of a broad European war has receded, but warns that direct British involvement in attacks on Russia could provoke a severe response. He argues that the UK and other European countries lack the resources and public support for such a confrontation.

• Germany and Russia: Macgregor forecasts renewed German-Russian cooperation, describing it as a mutually beneficial commercial relationship based on German demand for energy and Russian interest in German technology and industry. He says Western efforts to prevent such ties, including the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline, were major strategic mistakes.

• Middle East: Near the end, Diesen raises the possibility of a U.S.-Iran war. Macgregor says he has not followed developments closely, but considers conflict avoidable while also suggesting that U.S. policy may be pushing toward it.

Presenters and Contributors

• Glenn Diesen — host
• Douglas Macgregor — guest and commentator