Как ПРАВИЛЬНО инвестировать в 2026 для пассивного дохода ✅ Дмитрий Кокорев

Speaker / context

• Interview with Dmitry Kokarev (12 years investing; started investing in 2014).
• Focus: long-term investing aimed at capital growth + partial income, rather than relying on withdrawals early to “live fully” off passive income.

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Key finance ideas & explicit frameworks

“Capital first, then optional passive income” (philosophy)

• He does not aim to live only on passive income at age 25–35.
• Preference: build assets that grow in price, so capital multiplies.
• Practical “drip” example:
  • ~1,000,000 rub at roughly 15% yield ⇒ ~150,000 rub/year (≈ 12,000 rub/month).
• Overall framing: investing as building liability–capital comfort while still working/learning.

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Portfolio construction framework (barbell + diversification)

Barbell concept (Taleb-style)

• Aggressive side: business / higher-growth assets.
• Conservative side: bonds and safer instruments to insure capital during crises.
• For entrepreneurs, he notes the conservative part is often missing; he recommends bonds as protection.

Example allocation for a moderate beginner (≈15-year horizon)

• Target allocation

  • 60% bonds
  • 40% shares

• Within bonds (later refinement)

  • ~30% ruble bonds
  • ~30% foreign-currency bonds
  • He discusses whether to include USD vs EUR vs “yuan”, expressing less preference for yuan exposure.

• Liquidity sleeve (“pillow”)

  • 15–20% in a liquidity fund
  • Referenced yield around ~13–14% at the time of discussion
  • Purpose: buy during drawdowns.

Crisis management rules he emphasizes

• Don’t predict the future; prepare for different scenarios.
• Use a “pillow”/liquidity to buy during market declines (e.g., during drawdown when the MOEX index drops).
• Avoid concentration:
  • He explicitly rejects 100% in a single asset, even with high conviction.

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Specific instruments & tickers mentioned

Equities / companies

• Sberbank (Sber)
• T-Bank / Tinkoff (Tbank)
• Gazprom
• Surgutneftegas
• Polus (Polyus Gold)
• Novatek
• SIBUR
• Raspadskaya
• T-technology
• Mentions “Sber & Tbank” as examples of quality business and reporting.

ETFs / indices

• MOEX index (used as a reference for market direction and drawdowns)

Bonds / rates / instruments

• OFZs (ruble government bonds)
• Corporate bonds (including later references to VDO / high-yield)
• Foreign-currency bonds
• Long OFZs; he discusses selling/buying around rate expectations.

Crypto

• Bitcoin
• Ether
• Other altcoins / “small coins”, “ICO”

Crypto strategy split:

• “Pension” portfolio: BTC + ETH (aggressive but concentrated in the largest coins)
• A more aggressive “2nd briefcase”: smaller/high-risk coins

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Key numbers, yields, valuation & rate concepts

Macro / FX & “fair value” view

• Ruble/USD as an investing driver:
  • He cites ruble around 70–76 rub per USD (as stated).
  • Using a Fisher’s rule-style approach, he estimates a “fair” level around ~80 rub per USD.
• Interpretation:
  • If USD/ruble is below fair (~80), he treats it as a signal to buy USD/FX assets.
• Historical context:
  • In 2022, USD/RUB swings referenced around 50–60 and even ~45 earlier in 2022.
  • In 2023, ruble moved toward ~100 per USD; FX concerns remain a key theme.

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Stock market valuation remarks (Russia “phenomenally cheap”)

• He argues Russian stock prices can lag fundamentals.
• Examples mentioned (approx./memory-based):
  • T-bank: discussed around ~8,000 rub, then later about ~800 rub (as an example of “extreme cheapness” vs fundamentals).
  • Sber: describes a period of stagnation despite earnings growth.
• Valuation multiple:
  • For Sber, he cites P/E ~0.7 (stated as being below PBL only during 2008 in his narrative).

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Company financial numbers (Sber)

• Cites reported results:
  • “Second quarter report”: about 1 trillion rub earned in the first half.
  • Mentions ~2 trillion rub profit and ~+20% YoY (as described).

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Passive income / yield targets

• Bonds / yields:
  • Mentions ~15–16–17%, sometimes ~20% (general range).
• Stock market yield claim:
  • Russian equities average ~15% per annum over about 20 years (his statement).
• Liquidity fund:
  • Referenced yield around ~13–14%.

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Withdrawal rate / spend vs leave

• He rejects a strict, universal “withdrawal rate” as the main rule.
• Sustainability framing:
  • targets roughly 2–3% in a ruble scenario for capital withdrawals (conceptually while leaving something behind).
• Also referenced:
  • ruble bond yields ~8–9%
  • hopes for ~10% going forward.

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Real estate yields

• Rental profitability comparison:
  • suggests domestic rental yields around ~5–6% (he notes that exclusive deals may be higher).
• He prefers foreign real estate partly to remain FX-linked and outside certain jurisdiction risks.

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Crypto strategy details & risk lessons

Gains then severe loss

• Entered crypto Oct–Nov 2017:
  • starting capital about ~89,000 rub
  • claims it multiplied roughly 3x by December.
• Later ICO exposure:
  • example $2,000 → $8,000 in 4 days (“explosion”).
• Major mistake:
  • sold an apartment and concentrated into crypto.
  • In Nov 2018, he claims a ~60% market fall and “lost almost everything.”

Lesson learned

• Error: concentrated maximum risk exposure (one coin / too risky) and overestimated upside during mania.
• Recovery took ~3 years.
• Later bought back the apartment around 2021.

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Explicit recommendations & cautions

For beginners / ordinary workers (“Nikita”)

• He proposes defining:

  • Goal, timeframe, amount, risk profile

• For a moderate investor with ~15-year horizon:

  • Use a brokerage account + IIA (ИИС) for tax benefits if holding > 5 years.
  • Example allocation: 60% bonds / 40% shares
  • Prefer:
    • high-rated OFZs / corporate bonds
    • For stocks: a stock index fund or “better stock fund” based on MOEX, plus selecting companies with:
      • low net debt
      • low “multiplier”
      • growing business

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Against extreme behavior (“jumping between assets”)

• Frequent switching (“jumping”) leads to confusion, emotional decisions, and can trigger leverage spirals.
• He claims he saw cases like:
  • selling into declines
  • chasing opportunities to recoup
  • even pulling borrowed money and “selling apartment” outcomes.

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Risk management via diversification

• “No 100% shares” principle:
  • avoid situations where a -50% drawdown causes panic and forced selling.
• He suggests structures that maintain liquidity and bonds, so you can buy during volatility.

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FX stance

• He expects long-term ruble depreciation (Fisher’s rule + inflation differential).
• Therefore he gradually increases FX-denominated assets, viewing current USD/FX as cheap vs “fair value.”

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VDO / high-yield bond caution

• Discusses VDO (high-yield) bonds:
  • returns can be ~22–25% in his described portfolio.
  • warns about an “expected wave of defaults” risk, hoping it doesn’t hit his country/selection.
• Diversification rule:
  • keep small position per issuer, citing max ~2% per issuer.

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“Performance metrics” and real-world outcomes mentioned

• Public investing (claimed):
  • Over 2 years, added about ~6.5 million rub
  • Produced about ~50,000 rub/month passive income (as stated).
• Personal experience:
  • Crypto concentration loss: “lost almost everything” after selling an apartment (around the 2018 decline; recovery ~3 years).

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No clear, explicit legal “not financial advice” line is visible in the provided subtitles text.
• He does frame advice as general philosophy and uses phrases implying it is not a direct recommendation in some idea/education contexts, but a formal disclaimer is not clearly included.

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Presenter / sources mentioned (as referenced)

• Dmitry Kokarev (main interviewee/source)

Referenced authors/figures and media outlets

• Nassim Nicholas Taleb (barbell reference)
• Interfax
• RIA Novosti
• MarkTwit (Telegram)
• RBC (specifically Maxim Orlovsky)

Books mentioned (titles as stated/approximated)

• The Reasonable Investor
• The Richest Man in Babylon
• Sly Market / Sneaky Markets and brainwashed (subtitle title paraphrased)
• Mister Market Cycles / Market cycles (subtitle title paraphrased; not perfectly clear)

Other conference reference (partially unclear)

• A Moscow stock market conference with:
  • Finam strategy director Roman Andreev
  • a Moscow Exchange trader speaker (names partially unclear from subtitles)