Что делать с деньгами ближайшие два года – Петр Краев и Кирилл Кузнецов

Summary

The speakers see Russia’s economy as at risk of recession: high interest rates, weak demand, and an overvalued ruble are weighing on companies. They expect the Central Bank may eventually cut rates and the ruble may weaken, but stress that the timing is uncertain. Their broader approach is to build portfolios around multiple scenarios rather than bet on one near-term outcome.

Macro and rates

• One speaker estimated Russia’s real interest rate at about 8%, calculated as a 14% policy rate minus 6% inflation.
• Russian GDP growth was described as close to 0%; more than 50% of companies reportedly had lower profits in the first half of the year.
• Speakers cited rising unemployment or underemployment, weak consumer demand, and businesses’ difficulty passing cost increases on to customers as signs of an overcooled rather than overheated economy.
• They expect pressure for lower rates, potentially next year, but disagree about inflation risks. One sees little near-term basis for a sharp inflation surge; another warns that policy priorities could change if the Central Bank leadership changes.
• The ruble was characterized as overvalued. Future depreciation could benefit exporters and foreign-currency assets. One speaker noted that the Finance Ministry was increasing foreign-currency purchases.
• Global inflation and geopolitical uncertainty were also presented as reasons to avoid concentrating entirely in fixed-rate ruble assets.

Portfolio views and strategies

• Diversify by currency and country. One speaker said their capital was split roughly 50/50 between rubles and foreign currency. Their foreign-currency exposure included gold and other currency-linked holdings; the transcript’s reference to yuan instruments is unclear.
• Conservative investors: Consider foreign-currency bonds, with cited yields of about 10% and some instruments reportedly offering 12–15% after market sell-offs. Holding eligible investments in an IIS (an individual investment account) was suggested as a way to reduce taxes legally. Five-year OFZs were described as potentially interesting at current yields, while ten-year bonds were viewed as harder to assess.
• Equities: The speakers debated growth versus value. One favors strong, low-debt value companies with dividends; the other sees potential upside in growing companies if conditions normalize. Russian equities were described as a long-term bet on eventual peace and policy normalization, not a trade whose precise catalyst can be timed.
• Power-grid companies were highlighted for regulated tariff increases, potentially strong cash flows, and dividends. One speaker said tariffs were set to rise by 15% for two consecutive years and described some companies as trading at roughly one year’s earnings. They said investment plans and tariff decisions can help investors estimate future dividends.
• Gold and silver: One speaker has accumulated gold since 2023, while describing silver as more speculative. The speakers argued that gold can diversify portfolios amid geopolitical tension and deglobalization, but cautioned that sharply rising interest rates could hurt gold and other financial and commodity assets.
• Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum were discussed as possible inflation-hedge-like assets, but with high volatility. One speaker suggested limiting exposure to around 5% of capital and noted uncertainty about potential threats to cryptography from emerging technology.
• Russian index funds: One speaker was skeptical of passive buy-and-hold investing in Russia, arguing that dividends, governance, and company-specific risks matter greatly. They considered broad US index investing more suitable for investors without expertise in individual foreign companies. For Russia, they preferred selecting individual dividend-paying companies.
• Retirement income: Dividend income was described as unpredictable because companies can cut or suspend payouts. One speaker favored commercial property for retirees, citing around 10% yields, versus 4–5% for residential rental property and a commonly cited 4% annual safe-withdrawal rate. The other argued that Russian property may be overvalued and that equities currently look relatively cheap.
• Risk management: Avoid excessive leverage, spend less time watching short-term price moves, and invest only with a defined thesis and exit criteria. One speaker described a trend-following strategy that suffered a prolonged drawdown in a sideways market, then recovered the losses after a downward trend developed in June and reached a reported historical high. The subtitle’s stated maximum-drawdown figure is garbled and should not be relied on.

Assets, companies, and instruments mentioned

• Bonds and cash: OFZ government bonds, deposits, foreign-currency bonds, and Seligdar gold-linked bonds.
• Equities: Ozon, Sovcombank, MTS, Lukoil, Transneft, Sberbank, Tatneft, Dom.RF, X5, Magnit, AFK Sistema, Norilsk Nickel, PhosAgro, Gazprom, and power-grid companies including Rosseti and Lenenergo preferred shares.
• Commodities and alternatives: Gold, silver, gold coins, oil and oil-refining companies, and commercial and residential real estate.
• Other instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Russian and foreign index funds/ETFs, options, futures, and frozen foreign assets.
• The speakers cited some Russian growth companies as trading at roughly one-third of prior valuations; the transcript’s references to MTS Bank and Sovcombank multiples are unclear. They also cited MTS’s prospective dividend yield at about 15%, plus a buyback equivalent to roughly 6%, and Lukoil’s potential autumn half-year dividend at nearly 10%. These were presented as estimates, not guaranteed returns.
• A US oil-refining position was said to have risen nearly 80% in three to four months. A Kazakh gold producer was described as trading at about three times earnings, with production up 50% and shares up 150%, excluding dividends; these were personal examples from the speakers.

Explicit cautions and disclosures

• Dividend payments are uncertain; speakers cited inconsistent or opaque dividend practices and related-party transactions as risks in the Russian market.
• Ozon was discussed as a growing business but also as exposed to infrastructure risks. Grid companies were considered less directly exposed to attacks on generation assets, though the speakers acknowledged security risks.
• Gold-mining shares are not equivalent to owning gold. One speaker cited mining-company cost inflation of 50–70% as a reason profits can be squeezed. The speakers disagreed about Seligdar’s gold-linked bonds: one considered them reasonable given the company’s capital cushion; the other preferred direct gold exposure for the small additional yield, citing issuer risk.
• Frozen foreign assets may be difficult or impossible to unlock. One speaker mentioned possible applications through broker-led programs and, for some Euroclear cases, legal processes; selling certain frozen instruments outside the exchange could involve discounts of around 60%.
• The speakers said it is not possible to reliably predict the end of the conflict or time a market entry around it. One said they were not selling their Russian equity allocation because it represented a long-term bet on eventual peace, while acknowledging the outcome could take until 2027 or 2028.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was stated. One speaker said both presenters are investment advisers registered with the Central Bank and members of the same self-regulatory organization.

Presenters and sources

Presenters: Petr Kraev and Kirill Kuznetsov.

Other sources or figures referenced: Elvira Nabiullina, German Gref, Oleg Perov, Ray Dalio, and Maxim Orlovsky.