Bitcoin: The End of July

Tickers / Assets / Instruments Mentioned

• Bitcoin (BTC)

Key Finance Takeaways & Market Context

Seasonality / midterm-year pattern (Bitcoin)

• In midterm years, July has often acted as a relief month following a drop into late June / early July.

2026 context vs prior history

• The speaker overlays 2026 year-to-date performance with past cycles (notably 2018).
• Based on this comparison, they suggest a “window of weakness” may be returning soon.

Macro / rates link

• The speaker connects potential renewed weakness to bond market moves:
  • Specifically, the 10-year yield rising (the “long end” of the curve “heading higher”).

Base-case timing (not guaranteed)

• Next window of weakness: expected to start in roughly 2–3 weeks.
• In midterm years, this weakness has often appeared during August and September.
  • Historical examples cited:
    • 2022: mid-August weakness
    • 2018: early August weakness
    • 2014: timing differs (less similar to later examples)
• A potential correction late Q3 is suggested if the price action resembles prior-cycle patterns such as 2023 / 2022 / 2018 / 2014.

Key Numbers / Performance Metrics Mentioned

July monthly returns in midterm years (examples)

• 2026: +10.5%
• 2022: ~+20%
• 2018: ~+38%

Additional 2022 context (within referenced months)

• July ended around ~-15%
  • The speaker notes it was strong early in the month, then reversed.
• August & September: described as red (down).

Technical / moving-average references (no explicit numeric values given)

• Monitored levels:
  • Bear market resistance band
  • 200-day moving average
• Historical behavior described:
  • 2022: after the June low, the bear market resistance band wasn’t reached again until ~November; the 200-day moving average wasn’t reached again until January of the following year.
  • 2018: the bear market resistance band was reached near late July, and around early August, but the 200-day moving average wasn’t touched until later.
    • The speaker describes remaining below the 200-day moving average from early/mid-April 2018 to April 2019.

Methodology / Framework (Explicitly Described)

Historical seasonality comparison

• Compare monthly returns for Bitcoin in “midterm years.”
• Look for a typical sequence:
  1. Drop into late June / early July
  2. Countertrend rally in July
  3. Weakened period returning in August/September (often)

Technical / momentum “level watching”

• Monitor whether price tags:
  • the bear market resistance band
  • the 200-day moving average
• Timing/likelihood is inferred from prior-cycle behavior, but the speaker explicitly cautions uncertainty.

Macro overlay (rates)

• Track whether 10-year yields continue moving higher.
• If yields rise and the scenario resembles earlier cycles, anticipate a correction in late Q3.

Explicit Recommendations, Cautions, and Risk Management

Uncertainty disclaimer

• The speaker emphasizes that “no one knows” whether BTC will reach:
  • the bear market resistance band, or
  • the 200-day moving average.

DCA recommendation (risk-management framing)

• While stating “not financial advice,” the speaker encourages DCA (dollar-cost averaging).
• Rationale: DCA typically works better than trying to time the exact bottom when day-to-day moves are uncertain.

Expected path (conditional)

• If history repeats, the speaker hopes/targets a cycle bottom by ~November (either already at the bottom or very near it).

Disclosures / Disclaimers

• “Not financial advice” is explicitly stated.
• Repeated emphasis on uncertainty:
  • “no one knows” whether specific levels/dates will be hit.

Presenters / Sources

• Presenter: the channel host speaking throughout (name not provided in the subtitles).
• Source referenced: the speaker’s own historical charts/analysis (e.g., monthly returns, ROI from the low chart) plus macro/rates context (notably bond market/10-year yield and Fed references).