Iran War Risks Escalation After Elections

Summary

Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro described the Iran conflict as stuck in a “cul de sac.” He said President Trump had concluded in April that further U.S. military action would carry high costs without achieving much more. That assessment prompted a ceasefire and negotiations over a memorandum of understanding, which soon collapsed. Since then, the U.S. has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports and used its Navy to help escort some shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the original issues behind the war remain unresolved.

Shapiro said the administration appeared to be weighing three options: renewed negotiations, declaring victory and withdrawing, or resuming major military operations. He warned that renewed strikes might not produce a substantially different result from earlier rounds. Although sanctions, the blockade, and military strikes have weakened Iran, the country still has ways to disrupt energy markets, undersea cables, and Saudi oil infrastructure, potentially worsening global economic pressures.

Risk of renewed fighting

The discussion also addressed the risk of renewed fighting after elections in Israel and the U.S. Shapiro said Israeli leaders had not resumed strikes before Israel’s election, partly because they lacked support from the military and security establishment. Trump had said U.S. operations would not resume before the November 3 midterms.

Shapiro noted speculation that Iran might act preemptively, though he was unsure how likely that was. Iran could not match U.S. and Israeli military power, he said, but could use asymmetric attacks to cause significant regional and global economic disruption.

U.S.–Israel relations

Shapiro argued that Benjamin Netanyahu’s long tenure had become closely associated in the U.S. with major sources of tension:

• The dispute over the 2015 Iran nuclear deal
• The Gaza war and Palestinian civilian casualties
• The role of far-right ministers in Netanyahu’s government
• Violence against Palestinians in the West Bank
• The Iran war’s contribution to higher fuel and consumer prices

Shapiro also criticized Netanyahu for handling the relationship in a partisan way. He said Israel’s standing among Americans had declined across parties and demographic groups, especially among younger people.

A change in Israeli leadership could create an opportunity to improve the relationship through different policies, communication, and cooperation across the U.S. political spectrum, Shapiro said. However, he cautioned that a new government would not necessarily support Palestinian statehood or avoid confronting security threats. Without a change in leadership, he warned, the relationship could face a serious rupture.

Presenters and contributor

• David Gura — Presenter
• Christina Ruffini — Presenter
• Daniel Shapiro — Guest contributor, former U.S. ambassador to Israel