Trump's Three-War Trap | Episode 13

Summary

John Mearsheimer argues that Donald Trump has become responsible for three wars: the war in Ukraine, the US-Israeli war against Iran, and the renewed war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. In Mearsheimer’s view, Trump initially tried to contain conflicts during his first year back in office, but in his second year drew the United States into a series of strategically damaging confrontations.

Mearsheimer assesses each war by considering four questions: the risk of escalation, the effects on the global economy, whether the United States can achieve a favorable outcome, and what might follow when the fighting stops. He concludes that the US has no viable strategy to win any of the three conflicts. He expects them to end in unstable frozen conflicts rather than lasting peace.

Iran

Mearsheimer describes the conflict as moving from a major US-Israeli bombing campaign to ceasefires, blockades, and limited exchanges of attacks, followed by renewed reliance on economic pressure. He says these measures have not compelled Iran to concede.

He warns that the US could resume military action or Iran could retaliate against Gulf states, with serious consequences for energy supplies and shipping. He also argues that the war may strengthen Iran’s incentives to pursue nuclear weapons, while leaving relations among Iran, the US, and Israel hostile. Support for Iran from Russia and China adds to the risk, he says.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis

Mearsheimer says Saudi Arabia restarted the conflict after receiving Trump’s approval, and that the Houthis subsequently escalated. He points to the involvement or support of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and the US on the Saudi side as evidence of horizontal escalation.

He warns that Houthi attacks on Saudi oil and gas infrastructure could compound disruptions caused by the Iran war. In his assessment, the Houthis have the advantage and Saudi Arabia lacks a path to victory. A frozen conflict could leave the Saudis facing hostile neighbors and doubts about US protection, potentially increasing Saudi interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.

Ukraine

Mearsheimer argues that although Trump inherited the war from Joe Biden, it became Trump’s responsibility after his first year in office. He describes the ground war as continuing while air attacks have intensified, and warns that the conflict could widen if Russia strikes NATO targets or Western governments deepen their direct involvement.

He predicts a Russian victory, though not a complete conquest of Ukraine. He expects the result to be a weakened Ukrainian state and a frozen conflict marked by hostile relations. He identifies the Baltic region, Belarus, Moldova, the Black Sea, the Arctic, and Kaliningrad as possible flashpoints.

Mearsheimer also notes the war’s effects on energy markets. He says Trump’s efforts to return Russian oil and gas to global markets reflect those concerns.

Great-power rivalry and US interests

Mearsheimer places the conflicts within a wider great-power rivalry among the US, Russia, and China. He argues that Russia and China support Iran, China supports Russia, and North Korea also assists Moscow. He warns that this alignment could lead to future confrontation between the major powers, particularly around Ukraine and Iran.

He concludes that the three wars could damage both US strategic interests and Trump’s presidency. He compares their potential political consequences to those of the Vietnam War for Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon.

Gaza

Mearsheimer treats Gaza separately. He calls Israel’s actions there genocide rather than a war between armies, and says the US shares moral responsibility through its support. He characterizes this as a lasting moral stain on the United States, though not the same kind of strategic disaster as the three conflicts discussed.

Presenter/contributor

John Mearsheimer