Why we can’t stop thinking about aliens | The Gray Area

Overview

Adam Kersh, senior editor at The Atlantic, argues that belief in aliens/UFOs persists largely due to shifting mainstream attention, distrust of authority, and the human attraction to extraordinary possibilities—despite a lack of hard evidence that aliens have visited Earth.

Key Points

Trump and “release” tactics; populist skepticism toward evidence

Kersh says Trump’s recent claims about UFO videos being “released” follow a familiar pattern: the released materials resemble earlier footage, yet they still contain no definitive alien evidence.

He also draws an analogy between Trump’s UFO approach and his approach to vaccines: positioning himself as an ally of “ordinary people” against elites while contradicting expertise or withholding proof when expectations aren’t met.

Why 2017 marked a media/cultural shift

Kersh points to around 2017 as a turning point in mainstream tone and coverage, especially related to:

• ATIP (Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program), a Pentagon program reportedly tied to tracking UFO reports
• Official acknowledgment of earlier “Pentagon UFO videos” (notably grainy infrared clips)

This shift helped create the impression that the government might “know more,” fueling broader speculation.

“Flaps”: belief cycles driven by attention waves, not proof

Kersh describes UFO interest as occurring in waves (“flaps”)—periods when many people report sightings.

He suggests the current moment may be near the end of a cycle that began around 2017, noting that these cycles often fade without concrete discoveries.

He also connects these waves to how modern attention to the sky—shaped by aviation since WWII and later radar/satellite capabilities—makes ambiguous phenomena more likely to be interpreted as “UAP.”

Two broad camps: believers, skeptics—and most people in between

Kersh frames the landscape as including:

• Believers, who often interpret official denial as proof of cover-ups, forming conspiracy frameworks
• Skeptics, who insist on extraordinary evidence and emphasize that no such proof exists

He also emphasizes a large middle group: not fully convinced, but open to possibilities—reinforced by public polling showing many Americans believe in aliens/UAPs.

Testimony vs. evidence (and why credibility doesn’t equal truth)

A central theme is that UFO claims commonly rely on testimony (“this happened to me”), which can feel compelling on a personal level.

Kersh argues testimony can still be unreliable: eyewitnesses—even trained professionals—can misinterpret what they saw. Even credible witnesses (such as pilots) may provide claims that other data cannot confirm.

He references 2023 House hearings and examples such as “tic tac”-style videos, arguing that:

• Mundane explanations (optics, radar behavior, perception effects, sensor/software issues) are more likely than aliens
• Invoking aliens would require bending or contradicting established physics (for instance, improbable deceleration), while everyday explanations fit more naturally

UFO belief intersects with spirituality and faith

Kersh describes UFO belief as sitting in a borderline space between religion and material claims:

• Religion often involves faith (“evidence of things not seen”)
• UFOs—if real—would be physical phenomena requiring physical proof, not faith-based belief

Still, he argues that UFO stories can activate the same psychological longing for something transcendent.

Conspiracy isn’t always wrong—just often wrong about the type of secret

Kersh points out historical irony: some government secrecy is real, but not necessarily in the way UFO theorists assume.

Examples include:

• Roswell: later admissions suggest the recovered object was tied to Cold War testing, not an alien craft—meaning deception may have occurred, but for conventional military reasons
• Area 51: secrecy was real (advanced aircraft testing), even though the public narrative centered on aliens

He cautions against jumping from “government lies” to “the government definitely hides aliens,” which still lacks demonstrable proof.

Why “disclosure” narratives endure

Kersh argues that many believers treat “disclosure” as a kind of messianic event—often reinforced by cultural products such as Spielberg’s Disclosure film.

However, he contends that official statements and available releases do not provide the high-quality evidence needed to resolve the claims decisively.

If aliens exist, it would reshape science—but the lack of contact is also scientifically troubling

Kersh notes that science once assumed life elsewhere might be common, especially before the space age.

Yet with modern exoplanet searches and solar system findings, direct evidence for life remains limited. He describes how the “possibility space” may be shrinking: if intelligent interstellar communication were common, we might expect detectable signs (like radio signals)—but we do not.

He argues that absence of evidence at our level may imply life is rare, self-limiting, or unlikely to spread—perhaps because of biological limits or civilization-destroying pathways (such as nuclear or climate risks).

Aliens as a mirror for human desire and anxiety

Kersh suggests UFO belief reflects discomfort with the idea that humanity is alone.

He closes by comparing the alien narrative to culture’s relationship with emerging technologies (such as AI): excitement and promises feel “just around the corner,” but the transformative payoff often doesn’t match the hype—creating similar cycles of anticipation.

Presenters / Contributors

• John Glenn Hill — host (sitting in for Shawn Illing)
• Adam Kersh — senior editor at The Atlantic; author of We Want to Believe: How Aliens Went Mainstream and Why It Matters