Putin Strongly Rejects US/EU Donbas Buffer Plan; Slaviansk Kramatorsk Evacuated Azov Flees; US Iran

Summary

Alexander Mercouris argues that the latest diplomatic effort is unlikely to produce a settlement. Citing a reported leak in The Economist, he describes a US proposal attributed to envoy Steve Witkoff: freeze the conflict near current lines, create a demilitarized buffer zone in the Ukrainian-held parts of Donbas—mainly around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk—and keep Ukraine outside NATO while allowing it to join the EU. The package reportedly also included investment and energy arrangements.

Mercouris says Moscow has rejected similar buffer-zone proposals before and is even less likely to accept them now. He interprets Vladimir Putin’s remarks to journalist Pavel Zarubin as reaffirming that Russia considers Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson to be Russian territory, not subjects for negotiation. According to Mercouris, Moscow would prefer talks to focus on a broader European security arrangement and a final settlement rather than another ceasefire.

He doubts the Abu Dhabi talks planned for mid-November will succeed, and questions whether divided European governments could agree on a negotiator with a meaningful mandate.

Mercouris reads Putin’s interview as a message to Ukrainians that Ukraine is losing and should abandon its NATO ambitions and accept Russia’s territorial demands rather than continue fighting for European leaders’ objectives. He also notes tentative discussion in Kyiv about neutrality and peace, but says he sees little evidence that Ukraine’s political leadership has changed course. He suggests Putin’s comments may also signal growing Russian opposition to Ukrainian EU membership, though he presents this as his interpretation.

Battlefield Developments

Mercouris reports another large Russian drone attack targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Dnipro, while Ukraine reportedly struck Voronezh. He says Russian forces may have advanced toward the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia and regained ground in the region, but cautions that the available evidence is incomplete and some reports may be exaggerated. He also warns that Russia has not yet used the full range of its potential missile and drone campaign.

He highlights the Ukrainian authorities’ evacuation order for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as evidence, in his view, that the front is nearing the cities. He links the deterioration to reported Russian advances around Dobropillia and the withdrawal or redeployment of Azov forces from the Lyman area. He also reports possible Russian pressure toward Velykyi Burluk and Izyum in the Kharkiv region. These battlefield claims are based largely on reports Mercouris cites; he acknowledges that some are not independently confirmed.

Possible US–Iran Escalation

Mercouris warns of a possible escalation between the US and Iran. He points to reports of Iranian missile exercises, US embassy personnel withdrawals, and British Typhoon deployments to Saudi Arabia, alongside a sharp rise in oil prices toward $120 per barrel. He says a strike on Iran could prompt attacks on energy infrastructure across the region and worsen energy pressures ahead of winter.

Presenter

• Alexander Mercouris