Ma stratégie d’investissement pour les 10 prochaines années

Finance-focused summary (markets / investing / portfolio construction)

Core portfolio thesis & framework (“three-burrows” + four-quadrant compass)

The creator outlines a 3-part, long-horizon “Three Terriers” portfolio designed to benefit from a revolutionary economic period—where an old order collapses and is rebuilt differently.

A four-quadrant compass is used to:

• Anticipate value shifts
• Choose high-risk assets to target high returns
• Maintain low or uncorrelated exposure to moderate overall portfolio risk
• Allocate to “antifragile” assets (assets intended to benefit from stress/volatility rather than merely survive it)

Disclaimer / disclosures

Key disclosures and framing include:

• “I have nothing to sell today.”
• Many details are not fully discloseable, including items like private equity purchase terms and some valuations.
• Performance figures are presented as personal/estimated, with uncertainty in valuation inputs.
• Mentions “this isn’t your money, it’s mine” and notes he is recording around Sep 14 (BTC price may change before publication).
• No explicit “not financial advice” subtitle is apparent, but the strategy is framed as personal capital and personal approach.

---

Portfolio construction (step-by-step / methodology)

1) Private equity (“burrow” #1): concentrated, not diversified across many deals

Rationale

• Avoids the “buy 300 companies/year” style approach.
• Claims average PE fund performance is just above ~10% (“pretty meh”).
• Prefers heavy initial bets in companies the founders strongly believe in.

Current holdings

• Antimateur (co-founded unicorn)
  • Amount not restated as a public $ figure; used for portfolio “balancing.”
• Zoy
  • Invested €2,000,000 (~$2.3M).

Disclosure limits

• Monitoring is difficult because financial terms and full results cannot be publicly disclosed.

Estimated/assumed valuation gains

• For tracking gains, he sets:
  • Zoy = 0
  • Antimateur = 0
• Reason: private equity is illiquid, and he cannot disclose terms/results.

---

2) Off-plan high-end real estate (“burrow” #2): concentrated in “pivotal countries,” currently Dubai

Thesis

• Emphasizes off-plan purchases in pivotal regions (a geopolitical “bridge” between major blocs).
• Focuses on situations that may be framed as antifragile, such as improved access during/after geopolitical disruptions.

Stated countries/examples

• Mentions Switzerland, Singapore, Dubai, Miami, with the active example being Dubai.

Developers (Dubai)

• Al Barari
  • Associated with the Zaha family: founder Zahal Mohamed Zahal with Mohamed Zahal
• Zaya
  • Founded by Nadia Zahal

Purchases & prices (end of 2025 / around conflict period)

• At Cape de Al Barari 1:
  • 4-bedroom duplex: $3.7M, with $1.4M paid
  • 3-bedroom apartment: $2.0M
• Additional upgrades/transactions leading to:
  • 2 Solaya houses in Zaya
    • Described as 5-bedroom villas on 800 m²
    • $4.4M each → $8.8M total
    • With ~$1.4M paid

Real-estate payment / valuation notes

• He claims that despite the Iran–Emirates conflict, pricing for these specific developments did not fall.
• Instead, he claims roughly ~+10% on-the-ground versus what broad market indices suggest.
• Cites Sep 13: Iran announced an agreement with the Emirates (conflict subject reportedly ended), but he advises caution due to recency.
• Dubai population/tourism indicators (as stated):
  • Claims Dubai population decreased by 61,000 due to the conflict
  • Projects increase by ~160,000 vs end-of-2025
  • Says high-end restaurants were reportedly full
  • Tourism season starts end of October
  • Mentions it’s still ~37°C at recording time

Golden Visa (Dubai)

• Golden Visa requires roughly $550,000 in real-estate investment.
• Claimed benefits:
  • Easier residency/admin
  • Reduced banking frictions
  • Access to a checkbook
  • More banks
  • Ability to open a local business with less friction
  • A “plan B” if issues arise
• He states he will still pay taxes in Switzerland (no tax implications are emphasized; framed more as administrative flexibility).

---

3) Bitcoin strategy via “Bitcoin by-products” (Strategy by Michael Saylor exposure)

Thesis

• Bitcoin is framed as a potential new “monetary shelling point,” competing with gold.
• Targets a “several million dollars” scenario but stresses risk.
• Instead of direct BTC buying, he buys equity instruments that offer Bitcoin exposure with leverage/structure.

Main company named

• Strategy (Bitcoin Treasury company; associated with Michael Saylor)

Investment instruments (explicit tickers/structures)

• MSTR: 24,000 shares at $130
• Stride preferred shares: 27,450 shares at $68
• Strike shares: 13,800 shares at $72

“Perpetual bonds-like” mechanics (as described)

• Stride
  • No principal repayment
  • Receives $10/year
• Strike
  • No principal refund
  • Receives $8/year
  • Includes an option to convert to MSTR (no conversion deadline mentioned)
• Alternative liquidity
  • Can sell shares in the secondary market

Yield / cost / risk management numbers

• Approximate yields at purchase prices:
  • Stride @ $68 → ~14.7%
  • Strike @ $72 → ~11% plus an indefinite-term option (as described)
• Borrowing cost:
  • Claims borrowing at roughly ~5% (e.g., Lombard credit / margin loan)
• Volatility management:
  • He claims volatility is lower for Stride/Strike than MSTR to help manage the Lombard loan.

Portfolio allocation value for the Bitcoin bucket

• Basket is stated as ~$6M total.

Volatility disclaimer

• Notes BTC price began fluctuating again around the week of Sep 14, so charts referenced may become outdated later.

---

Key numbers & performance metrics mentioned

Portfolio size and evolution (as of recording)

• Initial capital: ~$13.4M
• Current valuation: ~$14.2M
• Implied upside: ~6% (about ~$800k)

Real estate unrealized gains & leverage explanation

Sellability heuristic

• A +5% increase is framed as enough to sell “immediately without hesitation.”

Capital gain math using leverage

• Example “Sole 2” (property name partially unclear due to subtitle noise):
  • Home price: $4.4M
  • Paid so far: $650k
  • Price increases by ~5%: $4.4M → $4.6M
  • Adds ~$220k unrealized gain
  • Unrealized gain on invested capital: $220k / $650k ≈ 34%
• Warning:
  • The percentage gain declines mechanically over time as more principal is paid, even if the asset price continues rising.

Stated real-estate gain range

• Claims Dubai real estate can show capital gain between ~20% and ~34% on invested capital (driven by leverage).
• Mentions valuation variance:
  • He “doesn’t really believe” a +20% increase shown by an index/platform he displays.
  • Cites that estimates did not match reality in areas he knows.

Income / yield assumptions (Bitcoin bucket)

• Stride yield: ~14.7%
• Strike yield: ~11% plus option (as described)
• Borrowing cost: ~5%

---

Explicit investing recommendations / cautions

• Prefer concentrated, high-conviction private investments over broad diversification across hundreds of PE deals.
• Use design principles like uncorrelation and antifragility to reduce reliance on a single regime.
• For Dubai real estate:
  • Emphasizes timing access via network + payment plan conditions
  • Warns narratives can shift quickly during conflict-related periods
  • Warns about differences between marketing valuations and actual deal reality
• For Bitcoin:
  • Don’t necessarily buy BTC spot
  • Consider structured Bitcoin by-products (Strategy preferred/levered vehicles) to balance volatility vs leverage
  • Highlights volatility control to better manage Lombard loans

---

Tickers / assets / instruments mentioned

Public markets / structured exposures

• MSTR (Strategy, by Michael Saylor)
• Strategy (company context)
• Bitcoin (BTC) (conceptual and via Strategy exposure)
• Stride preferred shares (Strategy “Stride”)
• Strike shares (Strategy “Strike”)

Real estate

• Dubai off-plan projects including:
  • Al Barari, Zaya, Cape de Al Barari 1, Lunaya, Solaya
• Example in leverage math: “Sole 2” (exact property name unclear due to subtitle noise)

Private companies

• Zoy
• Antimateur

---

Presenters / sources (end)

• Presenter: Richard (referred to repeatedly); the main speaker’s name is not given in subtitles.
• Named references:
  • Yve Chati (interview reference about “Bitcoin splitting tower”)
  • Michael Saylor (via Strategy)
  • @richardente (X handle referenced; associated with “numerous posts”)