This Isn't a Blue Wave. It's Something Bigger | Strategy Session with Rick Wilson and Joe Trippi

Overview

The speakers argue that the 2024 election environment isn’t shaping up as a simple “blue wave.” Instead, it’s more of a “change wave,” driven by voter fatigue with established politics and a strong desire to reject the current political direction—particularly as Republican support for Donald Trump appears unstable, polarizing, and damaging.

Key Points Raised

1) Turnout and momentum favor Democrats (and nontraditional voters)

They cite Alabama’s Democratic primary as evidence of a shift, pointing to:

• A claimed 116% increase in Democratic turnout (described as roughly doubling vs. 2022)
• A claimed 25% decrease in Republican turnout

They generalize this theme to other states and primaries this year, arguing that Republican turnout is “in free fall.”

2) Voters want “new people” more than specific Democratic candidates

The change is framed less as enthusiasm for Democrats and more as anger at “tired” politicians—a desire to throw out the old political establishment rather than rally around particular candidates.

3) Independent voters are broadly hostile to Trump

They emphasize that independent/non-party voters are the deciding bloc and claim independents are:

• About 2.5 to 3 to 1 against Trump across issues such as the economy, health care, Iran, and tariffs

In Florida, they further claim independents are:

• The fastest-growing political group
• Strongly disapproving of Trump (example given: 25% approve / 75% disapprove)

4) The “Trump problem” is internal to the GOP base

One discussion argues the issue isn’t just general public dislike, but division within the GOP base—illustrated through attitudes toward harshness on ICE, where roughly thirds express:

• ICE has gone too far
• ICE is Goldilocks/right
• ICE hasn’t been brutal enough

The argument: as Trump’s approval drops (they mention it creeping below 35), the GOP coalition fractures:

• Some want Trump to be harder
• Others believe he is already too extreme This limits his ability to deliver down-ballot benefits.

5) Economic and polling conditions are worsening for Republicans

They argue that:

• Direction-wrong-track polling is extremely unfavorable (compared to periods like Carter and/or 2008)
• Approval numbers are sliding toward the 20s

They also predict conditions will worsen between now and November, including speculation that:

• Gas prices won’t fall
• Inflation pressure could rise (they speculate 4–5% inflation by election day)

6) Trump is distracting Republicans and weakening their campaign effectiveness

They claim Trump continues to focus on grievances and culture-war controversies rather than helping Republican candidates.

They also argue many Republicans face a dilemma: they can’t effectively “hug Trump” to energize the base without risking damage among independents and moderates.

7) “Not a blue wave,” but broad rejection could flip unlikely places

Using an analogy to 1980 (Carter-era misery and economic pain), they suggest major seat losses could occur even in areas previously thought safe for Republicans.

They specifically mention potential Democratic breakthroughs in states such as:

• Kansas
• Mississippi

They describe this election as more of a referendum on Trump/MAGA than on Democratic branding.

8) Debate: are Democrats uniquely toxic? (Conclusion: MAGA/Trump is more toxic)

They conclude that while Democrats may be seen as toxic by some voters, MAGA/Trump is even more toxic, reinforcing the “change wave” dynamic.

Presenters / Contributors

• Rick Wilson
• Joe Trippi