Brandmauer vor dem Zusammenbruch: Was jetzt kommt – Christian Stecker im Gespräch

Interview Overview

The interview examines the election of AfD politician Tobias Rausch as president of the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament and what it may signal for German politics.

Political scientist Christian Stecker says the vote has prompted sharply divided interpretations. Some view it as a normal parliamentary outcome for the largest party; others consider it alarming and invoke Germany’s Nazi past. Stecker sees this contrast as a sign of intense polarization that is making political cooperation increasingly difficult.

The CDU and the AfD

Stecker describes the election as a possible “dress rehearsal” for future parliamentary majorities, potentially including support from CDU lawmakers. He stresses that it does not prove how a minister-president election will turn out.

In his view, the firewall against cooperation with the AfD has weakened the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt, divided its parliamentary group, and put the party’s strategy under strain. The CDU’s earlier promise to lead the government may also be losing credibility as the AfD gains strength.

Stecker argues that the firewall may have benefited the AfD by shielding it from the compromises and practical tests of governing. Exclusion allows the party to promote competing or inconsistent positions without having to reconcile them, while voter frustration continues to grow. He describes the AfD partly as a response to a representation gap around issues such as immigration and the energy transition. He cautions that this does not make the party harmless, but argues that treating it only as a threat to democracy can displace policy debate and deepen the alienation of its voters.

Coalition Politics and Flexible Majorities

Stecker criticizes coalition-based politics because coalition agreements bundle unrelated issues into a single package. Parties may have to accept policies they oppose in one area to secure priorities in another. Coalition discipline can also prevent majorities from forming on specific issues and give smaller coalition partners an effective veto.

As an alternative, he advocates flexible majorities. Parties would maintain internal discipline while seeking different parliamentary partners depending on the issue. For example, the CDU might cooperate with the SPD on foreign policy and with the AfD on migration policy.

Stecker argues that this approach could make parliament more influential, help parties maintain clearer positions, and give voters more opportunities to see their preferred policies supported. He points to New Zealand and Scandinavian parliamentary practices as examples of more flexible arrangements.

He emphasizes that parties would still need to offer voters recognizable programs and act as coherent teams. The proposal is not for legislators to vote as isolated individuals.

Voters and Party Loyalties

The discussion also addresses tactical voting and the weakening of traditional party loyalties. Stecker says voters may choose a party strategically to block another, and that the CDU’s position as the natural leader of the anti-AfD camp has become less convincing.

He links the CDU’s difficulties to long-term shifts under Angela Merkel. In his view, the party’s move toward the political centre left some conservative voters feeling insufficiently represented. These effects emerged gradually and may now be difficult to reverse.

Stecker contrasts the AfD’s treatment with the earlier integration of the Greens. He argues that the SPD was more willing to distinguish between factions within the Greens and cooperate with moderates. He says the current CDU has shown little comparable willingness to explore possible agreements or parliamentary majorities with the AfD. Flexible majorities may therefore be harder to introduce now, given the CDU’s changed public standing and the current balance of political power.

Presenters and Contributors

• Max Mannhart — Presenter and interviewer
• Christian Stecker — Political scientist, TU Darmstadt