Russia Says Ukraine Deal Depends On Europe Security Treaty; US Shocked; Kushner Rushes To Putin; EU

Summary

Abu Dhabi talks and security negotiations

Alexander Mercouris argues that the Abu Dhabi talks revealed a fundamental mismatch between Washington’s aims and Moscow’s. The US and Ukraine are pressing for a near-term ceasefire, while Russia is making a settlement conditional on negotiating a much broader European—and, in Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s framing, Eurasian—security architecture. Mercouris says those negotiations could take years and that the Americans were surprised by the scope of Russia’s agenda.

According to Mercouris, the only concrete outcome from Abu Dhabi was an agreement in principle to arrange a prisoner exchange, with details still pending. Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky reportedly described the discussions as an early stage, with limited progress on some security arrangements.

Mercouris interprets Russia’s emphasis on security guarantees and the future regional order as a deliberate effort to set the terms for ceasefire discussions. Lavrov rejected a ceasefire before those issues are addressed, arguing that it could allow Ukraine to rebuild its forces. He also criticized European governments for demanding an immediate ceasefire while, in Russia’s view, preparing to deploy troops in Ukraine afterward.

US, Russian, Ukrainian, and European positions

Mercouris speculates that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s expected trip to Moscow is an effort to revive momentum and persuade President Vladimir Putin to return to a narrower ceasefire-and-territory framework. He doubts Russia will agree to bring Europeans into the negotiations without a designated European lead negotiator and concrete proposals. He says European governments lack both a unified position and a constructive plan.

Citing The Economist, Mercouris characterizes the negotiating imbalance as Trump being in a hurry while Putin is not. He argues that US urgency may strengthen Russia’s leverage.

Mercouris describes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as unwilling to compromise on territory, NATO membership, or a withdrawal from Donbas. Zelensky has said security guarantees without NATO membership would be inadequate and continues to call for a meeting with Putin, but not in Moscow. Mercouris adds that disagreements over which locations are controlled by which side could complicate any ceasefire along existing lines.

European governments, he says, largely back Kyiv’s position, though disputes remain over funding. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reportedly threatened to block the EU budget unless member states agreed to financial guarantees connected to further support for Ukraine. Mercouris reports resistance from leaders including Slovakia’s Robert Fico, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, Hungary’s Péter Magyar, and Bulgaria’s Rumen Radev. They objected to linking the EU budget to Ukraine aid or said their own countries’ finances should take priority. Mercouris predicts the budget threat will be difficult to carry out and could damage Merz politically.

War and battlefield developments

Mercouris says Ukrainian strikes have targeted Russian refineries, prompting Rosneft to limit gasoline purchases at its stations, though he describes the measure as precautionary. He contrasts this with reported power outages in Ukrainian cities after Russian drone strikes on electricity infrastructure. He also discusses warnings from Ukraine that Russian forces may target Dnieper bridges, while stressing that he cannot verify the reported order.

For battlefield developments, Mercouris reports Russian claims of advances in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions and describes the Zaporizhzhia front as the most consequential area of movement. Russian forces have reportedly taken several villages north of Orikhiv, potentially creating a small pocket and putting pressure on Ukrainian positions.

He also reports Russian claims of capturing Shilivka near Dobropillia. Mercouris says he believes Russia’s main Donbas priority remains Sloviansk and Kramatorsk rather than a westward push along the E50 highway. These battlefield assessments are presented as claims and analysis, not independently verified findings.

Iran and US domestic politics

Mercouris says he continues to expect a US attack on Iran, arguing that a delay may be related to the movement of a third US naval vessel to the Arabian Sea.

He also notes that Representative Tom Massie’s effort to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth failed, with nearly all House Republicans opposing it. Mercouris interprets the vote as evidence of party support for the administration and potentially for action against Iran.

Presenters and contributors

• Alexander Mercouris — Presenter and principal commentator
• Alex Christoforou — Cited as a colleague whose analysis Mercouris references
• Ben Aris — Cited as an analyst and contributor to BNE Intelligence