"이제 이걸 사셔야 합니다" 미국 기준금리 인상, 위험성은 낮고 수익률은 높아진 '이것'

Macro Backdrop: Korea + US Rate Hikes

• The presenter notes that both South Korea and the U.S. have raised interest rates, creating a “high-interest” environment that they expect will persist beyond the COVID-era low-rate conditions.
• South Korea policy rate
  • Raised twice
  • Each time by +0.25%
  • Ending at ~3%
• U.S. (FOMC) rate hike
  • +0.25%, attributed to high inflation
  • Fed Chair reference appears as “Kevin Ursey” in the subtitles (likely referring to Jerome Powell)
• Exchange rate (USD/KRW)
  • USD/KRW is discussed as moving back toward the 1,400 won range
  • A real-time level is mentioned around 1,381 won
  • The presenter claims that since 2021 (post-COVID) USD/KRW has had an overall upward trend, despite fluctuations

Key theme: predicting rates and FX direction is difficult—there was a “strange situation” where both FX and the stock market rose together.

Expected Economic / Policy Environment

• The presenter suggests the next year may usher in an “800 trillion won era,” implying increased liquidity/inflows.
• They believe this could:
  • Support further USD/KRW strength
  • Stimulate market activity
• Main caution: interest rates and FX movements are uncertain.

Portfolio Framing: Performance vs. Risk

Core objective

• Build a portfolio that emphasizes principal preservation (presented as low/no risk of principal loss), rather than chasing higher yields with riskier assets.

Tactical tilt

• Shift toward ultra-short-term U.S. Treasury exposure to earn yield in a higher-rate regime.

Explicit Investing Recommendations (What to Buy)

For direct USD exposure

• Buy ETF: SGOV
  • Described as “marked with the ‘SGOV’ sticker”
  • Framed as yielding ~4% annually (approximately)

For KRW-based exposure (Korea market)

• Buy ETF: TIGER U.S. Ultra-short-term Treasury Bonds
  • Maturity ≤ 3 months
  • Described as “3 months or less”

Instruments / Tickers Mentioned

ETFs / funds

• SGOV (U.S.-listed ultra-short-term U.S. Treasury ETF)
• TIGER U.S. Ultra-short-term Treasury Bonds (Korea-listed; maturity ≤ 3 months)

Macro instruments / underlying

• U.S. Treasuries with 0–3 months to maturity
  • Referred to as the underlying concept behind both options

Markets / indices

• KOSPI (referenced in a question context)

Key Numbers Cited

• South Korea policy rate
  • +0.25% twice → ~3%
• U.S. policy rate
  • +0.25%
• USD/KRW
  • Mentioned around 1,340 won (earlier context)
  • Then discussed around ~1,381 won
  • Expected return toward the 1,400 won range
• SGOV yield framing
  • ~4% annually
  • Presenter also notes an additional ~0.25% “on top of market price” after the hike (as a relative adjustment)

Framework / Methodology (Logic Step-by-Step)

• Construct a “high-interest, low-principal-risk” portfolio using ultra-short-term Treasuries (0–3 months).
• Use an ETF structure that:
  • Generates dividends from the underlying interest
  • Maintains relatively stable price behavior
    • For SGOV, described as behaving “near $100”
    • For the KRW-listed TIGER product, described as stable chart behavior (KRW-linked)
  • Minimizes principal loss risk (per the presenter’s framing)
• Choose the wrapper based on currency exposure:
  • SGOV (USD)
    • Dividends paid in USD
    • Currency conversion is managed at purchase/redemption
  • TIGER (≤3 months, KRW)
    • Held in KRW
    • ETF price/chart behavior reflects FX movements

Risk Management / Cautions

• The presenter repeatedly emphasizes “no risk of principal loss” in the context of these ultra-short-term Treasury ETFs (low drawdown/low credit and market risk framing).
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Mr. Yoon Seok-ju (presenter/commentator)
• Political / public figures mentioned:
  • Lee Jae-myung
  • Shin Hyun-song
  • Trump
• Central bank / Fed references:
  • Jerome Powell (subtitles show “Kevin Ursey,” referenced in that policy context)