Summary of "‫💰 پیش‌بینی قیمت جفت ارز (EURUSD) 14بهمن 1404_کاهش EURUSD به‌دلیل تقویت شاخص دلار"

Core call

EUR/USD is viewed as bearish overall after a structure break. Short-term corrective rallies are expected into a nearby fair value gap (FVG), then continuation lower toward an order block / demand limit. Look for sell entries within the FVG or on weakness of the corrective bounce.

Date of analysis

March 3 (video title references 14 Bahman 1404)

Assets / tickers mentioned

EUR/USD (EURUSD)
DXY (US Dollar Index)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (economic data)

Key technical levels, prices and targets

Weekly closing level optimized for daily/4H: 1.1700
Short-term FVG / correction entry zone: ~1.1833–1.1840
Liquidity / FVG level mentioned (buy-side liquidity that price may collect): 1.1850
Order-block / downside target limit: 1.1753
Bi-OS break level (bearish confirmation): 1.1760 — a close below implies continuation down
1H structure / change-of-character area referenced: ~1.1835
DXY target after expected correction: ~98.148

Macroeconomic context / catalysts

ISM Manufacturing PMI printed materially better than prior and forecasts, strengthening the DXY and contributing to EURUSD weakness.
Expectation: DXY may have a corrective pullback, then resume upward toward ~98.148, which supports further EURUSD downside.

Technical / session-based trading methodology

Multi-timeframe structure analysis (daily, 4H, 1H, 15-min).
Identify change-of-character / break-of-structure to switch bias from bullish to bearish.
Use fair value gaps (FVG) and order blocks to locate high-probability sell entries.
Anticipate liquidity hunts — expect buy-side liquidity around 1.185 to fuel a sell move.
Use Bi-OS (break in structure / order flow) confirmation — e.g., close below 1.176 to confirm continuation.
Momentum confirmation: check RSI for weakness on corrections (if corrective bounce lacks RSI strength, favor sells).
Session sequencing: watch Asian range, expect London manipulation to collect liquidity, then look for distribution in New York (uses “power of three” accumulation/distribution concept).
Adapt if market momentum or FVG fills occur differently — still prioritize sell setups after liquidity grabs.

Risk management / actionable triggers

Primary tactical plan: wait for corrective move into the FVG (1.1833–1.185 area) to search for sell entries.
If the corrective setup fails (weak correction inside the FVG), that scenario is still considered an opportunity to enter short per the commentary.
A daily/1H close below 1.1760 (Bi-OS level) is bearish confirmation; use structure breaks to validate continuation.
Monitor DXY moves and PMI-driven volatility — data releases can accelerate moves and change short-term momentum.

Performance metrics / indicators referenced

RSI used to evaluate momentum strength on corrective moves (current corrective RSI noted as lacking decisive momentum).
Primary trade signals: structure breaks, fair value gaps, order blocks and liquidity levels (no explicit P/L metrics provided).

Explicit recommendations and cautions

Recommendation: Look for short/sell setups in the FVG around 1.1833–1.185 (or after liquidity collection at ~1.185).
Caution: Monitor momentum and DXY behavior; a strong momentum change could alter the plan. A close below 1.176 confirms bearish continuation.

Disclosures

No explicit “not financial advice” or other disclaimers appear in the provided subtitles.

Presenter / source

Unnamed daily analyst on the referenced YouTube video (video title: “‫💰 پیش‌بینی قیمت جفت ارز (EURUSD) 14بهمن 1404_کاهش EURUSD به‌دلیل تقویت شاخص دلار”). Subtitles indicate analysis dated March 3.