Video summary

‫💰 پیش‌بینی قیمت جفت ارز (EURUSD) 14بهمن 1404_کاهش EURUSD به‌دلیل تقویت شاخص دلار

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Core call

EUR/USD is viewed as bearish overall after a structure break. Short-term corrective rallies are expected into a nearby fair value gap (FVG), then continuation lower toward an order block / demand limit. Look for sell entries within the FVG or on weakness of the corrective bounce.

Date of analysis

  • March 3 (video title references 14 Bahman 1404)

Assets / tickers mentioned

  • EUR/USD (EURUSD)
  • DXY (US Dollar Index)
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (economic data)

Key technical levels, prices and targets

  • Weekly closing level optimized for daily/4H: 1.1700
  • Short-term FVG / correction entry zone: ~1.1833–1.1840
  • Liquidity / FVG level mentioned (buy-side liquidity that price may collect): 1.1850
  • Order-block / downside target limit: 1.1753
  • Bi-OS break level (bearish confirmation): 1.1760 — a close below implies continuation down
  • 1H structure / change-of-character area referenced: ~1.1835
  • DXY target after expected correction: ~98.148

Macroeconomic context / catalysts

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI printed materially better than prior and forecasts, strengthening the DXY and contributing to EURUSD weakness.
  • Expectation: DXY may have a corrective pullback, then resume upward toward ~98.148, which supports further EURUSD downside.

Technical / session-based trading methodology

  1. Multi-timeframe structure analysis (daily, 4H, 1H, 15-min).
  2. Identify change-of-character / break-of-structure to switch bias from bullish to bearish.
  3. Use fair value gaps (FVG) and order blocks to locate high-probability sell entries.
  4. Anticipate liquidity hunts — expect buy-side liquidity around 1.185 to fuel a sell move.
  5. Use Bi-OS (break in structure / order flow) confirmation — e.g., close below 1.176 to confirm continuation.
  6. Momentum confirmation: check RSI for weakness on corrections (if corrective bounce lacks RSI strength, favor sells).
  7. Session sequencing: watch Asian range, expect London manipulation to collect liquidity, then look for distribution in New York (uses “power of three” accumulation/distribution concept).
  8. Adapt if market momentum or FVG fills occur differently — still prioritize sell setups after liquidity grabs.

Risk management / actionable triggers

  • Primary tactical plan: wait for corrective move into the FVG (1.1833–1.185 area) to search for sell entries.
  • If the corrective setup fails (weak correction inside the FVG), that scenario is still considered an opportunity to enter short per the commentary.
  • A daily/1H close below 1.1760 (Bi-OS level) is bearish confirmation; use structure breaks to validate continuation.
  • Monitor DXY moves and PMI-driven volatility — data releases can accelerate moves and change short-term momentum.

Performance metrics / indicators referenced

  • RSI used to evaluate momentum strength on corrective moves (current corrective RSI noted as lacking decisive momentum).
  • Primary trade signals: structure breaks, fair value gaps, order blocks and liquidity levels (no explicit P/L metrics provided).

Explicit recommendations and cautions

  • Recommendation: Look for short/sell setups in the FVG around 1.1833–1.185 (or after liquidity collection at ~1.185).
  • Caution: Monitor momentum and DXY behavior; a strong momentum change could alter the plan. A close below 1.176 confirms bearish continuation.

Disclosures

  • No explicit “not financial advice” or other disclaimers appear in the provided subtitles.

Presenter / source

  • Unnamed daily analyst on the referenced YouTube video (video title: “‫💰 پیش‌بینی قیمت جفت ارز (EURUSD) 14بهمن 1404_کاهش EURUSD به‌دلیل تقویت شاخص دلار”). Subtitles indicate analysis dated March 3.

Original video