Anthropic IPO: The Scam Of The Century

Summary

The presenter argues that investors should not assume recent gains in technology stocks and semiconductors mark a durable recovery. The key question, in his view, is where the buying would come from. He sees possible short-covering and some sector rotation, but says there is not yet clear evidence of sustained inflows into technology.

The video’s main focus is a possible Anthropic IPO. The presenter strongly criticizes the company’s reported valuation and financing structure, calling it a potential “scam” and warning that investors could lose heavily. These are the presenter’s opinions and interpretations of figures discussed in the video, not independently verified conclusions.

Market Framework: What Could Fund a Tech Rebound?

The presenter identifies four possible sources of money flowing back into technology and chips:

• Short-covering: Could support a temporary bounce after oversold conditions, but the presenter says it is insufficient to establish a bottom. He cites hedge funds making about $6 billion betting against AI and data-center stocks in October.
• Rotation from other sectors: Money could move out of sectors that did well in October—such as healthcare, utilities, real estate, and some cyclicals—and into technology and semiconductors. The presenter sees some signs of this, but says confirmation is lacking: RSP was up about 4% in October, while SMH was down more than 8%.
• Rotation from bonds into stocks: Investors would need to sell bonds and redirect money to equities. The presenter says that has not yet occurred; a few days of rising yields do not confirm a reversal.
• New investment flows: The presenter says retail trading volume is unusually low and retail investors are not yet buying dips. He speculates that some may be keeping cash available for Anthropic or a potential OpenAI IPO.

Anthropic IPO: Risks Raised by the Presenter

The presenter says Anthropic could seek a valuation above $2 trillion, after an indicated valuation of about $965 billion earlier in the year. He argues that the company’s large starting valuation leaves less room for IPO buyers to benefit from further multiple expansion.

Key Risks

1. Large-company growth hurdle: The presenter argues that a 100% gain from a $2 trillion valuation would require a $4 trillion valuation, which he considers extremely difficult.

2. Uncertain growth trajectory: The video cites $41 million in revenue in 2023 and $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, along with claimed revenue growth of 1,300%. It says the filing does not include third-quarter revenue; the presenter refers to leaked indications of about 50% growth in that quarter. Anthropic is quoted as warning that its revenue may not continue growing at the same rate, or at all.

3. Customer concentration: The video says 25% of revenue comes from five customers and suggests some customers may also be investors or major technology companies. It also quotes the filing as warning that revenue and receivables depend on a limited number of customers and sales channels, including startups and technology businesses that may cut spending in a downturn.

4. Debt and credit exposure: The presenter cites $6.2 billion in convertible notes as of June 30 and a $15 billion, five-year revolving credit facility led by Morgan Stanley. He says the company depends on external funding because it is not profitable.

5. Large purchasing commitments and circular financing: The video lists purported commitments including $161.2 billion for Broadcom chips, $114.5 billion for Google services, $110 billion for Amazon, $121.5 billion for SpaceX, $45 billion for Microsoft, more than $44 billion for NScale, $41 billion for Lambda, and $20 billion for AMD. The presenter characterizes the interconnected investments, lending, and purchases as circular financing and questions how the commitments could be met without profitable, organic demand.

6. Limited business diversification and customer churn: The presenter contrasts Anthropic’s reliance on AI services with competitors that have established businesses and multiple revenue streams. The video quotes Anthropic’s filing as warning that customers may reduce usage or terminate contracts with little notice, switch to competitors, or cut AI spending during a recession.

The presenter warns that a slowdown in customer spending could reduce Anthropic’s purchases from chip and cloud providers, potentially affecting multiple interconnected companies. He compares this risk with the more limited effects he attributes to the dot-com crash.

The video also cites prediction-market odds of:

• 70% for Anthropic reaching a $2 trillion valuation by year-end
• 18% for reaching $3 trillion by year-end
• 21% for bankruptcy by 2029
• 17% for bankruptcy by 2028
• 10% for bankruptcy by the end of 2027

The presenter uses these figures to emphasize the range of possible outcomes.

Macro, Markets, and Technical Levels

Oil and Geopolitics

Following Israel’s inconclusive election, the presenter says Netanyahu remains in power and suggests renewed conflict with Iran could increase energy risk. He cites crude-oil option activity at prices of $99, $103, $110, and $112 through November, and says crude has rebounded above $100. He notes a possible falling-wedge pattern that could be bullish. He warns that attacks on energy infrastructure could provoke wider regional strikes and raise oil prices.

Federal Reserve and Bonds

The next day’s FOMC decision is expected to leave rates unchanged; the presenter says a hike would be a surprise. He focuses on the Fed’s tone, its assessment of inflation, recession risk, and labor-market weakness, and whether it sounds hawkish or dovish. He says a dovish tone could weaken the dollar.

The presenter recalls the 10-year Treasury yield reaching about 5.3%, which he says encouraged some investors to move from equities into bonds. He says a genuine move back into technology would require bond selling and money returning to stocks.

Market Charts

• NASDAQ futures: Need to close and hold above 30,000 to confirm a technical rebound.
• NASDAQ moving averages: The presenter sees a possible 50-day/200-day moving-average death cross.
• S&P 500 E-mini: May still have a head-and-shoulders pattern. The presenter says a close above roughly 7,800 would be needed to confirm a reversal.
• IWM: Appears stronger to the presenter, with a possible inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. It is trading above its 200-day average and could reach its 50-day average if the Fed is dovish.
• RSP: The “rest of the market” remains firm, but the presenter says this does not yet confirm a technology rotation.

Gold

Gold is trying to hold $4,000. A stronger dollar after a hawkish Fed could, in the presenter’s chart scenario, break that level and lead toward about $3,500. He recommends that traders and investors holding gold longs consider hedging with put options until the Fed outcome is clearer.

China AI Stocks

The video cites China’s STAR 50 AI-related index falling about 40% in four months, erasing roughly $480 billion in shareholder value, versus about a 6% NASDAQ decline. It says some AI and data-center-related stocks fell 50–70%. The presenter compares this with U.S. IPO risks and notes that demand for robotics company Unitree’s IPO shares reportedly exceeded supply by 8,000 times.

Options Activity Discussed

• EWY (South Korea ETF): At about $156, traders reportedly bought calls at $180 and sold calls at $200, expiring December 18, 2026, spending just over $14 million. The presenter says the trade depends on a recovery in memory stocks and lower oil prices, given South Korea’s reliance on imported oil.
• SDX: With the underlying around 675, a trader reportedly bought calls at 720 and 760, expiring October 30, for about $1 million. The presenter calls it a high-risk, short-dated bet requiring a rise of more than 15%.
• Apple (AAPL): With the stock around 347, a trader reportedly sold calls at 355 expiring November 4, ahead of Apple’s earnings the following week. The presenter expects a possible correction, citing a high forward P/E, a rising-wedge chart pattern, and reports of iPhone Duo screen durability problems (“Crackgate”).
• Tesla (TSLA): With the stock around 405, a trader reportedly sold 410 calls expiring November 26, receiving roughly $250,000. The presenter interprets the trade as a bet that $410 will act as a ceiling.

Assets, Sectors, and Companies Mentioned

• Indices and ETFs: NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, RSP, SMH, QQQ, IWM, EWY, STAR 50.
• Stocks and companies: Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Broadcom (AVGO), Alphabet/Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), SanDisk, Western Digital (WDC), SK Hynix, Samsung, SpaceX, NScale, Lambda, CoreWeave, Nebius, Oracle (ORCL), SoftBank, Morgan Stanley (MS), JPMorgan (JPM), BlackRock (BLK), Apollo, Meta, Facebook, Unitree, and Caterpillar.
• Assets and sectors: Crude oil, gold, the U.S. dollar, Treasury bonds; technology, AI, semiconductors, memory chips, software, data centers, healthcare, utilities, real estate, insurance, energy, commodities, and cyclical industries.

Calendar and Disclosure

The presenter says the next day’s calendar includes the FOMC decision and press commentary, plus earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft. He also refers to upcoming reports from major technology companies and Apple’s report the following week.

No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The options trades, IPO figures, and company-financing claims are presented as commentary; the subtitles may contain transcription errors.

Presenter and sources: The presenter is the host of The Maverick of Wall Street. Sources mentioned or referenced include Anthropic’s IPO filing/S-1, Bloomberg, CNBC, market and options activity data, and a report on China’s AI market.