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"진짜 매수 기회는 딱 이때 옵니다" 9월 금리 오르면 '이렇게' 대응하세요 (박세익 대표 1부) I 머니리포트

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Summary (finance-focused)

Ahead of the U.S. September FOMC (Sep 16) and the Japan policy meeting (Sep 17–18), the discussion frames September as a period where rates vs. earnings will dominate—especially for KOSPI heavyweights in semiconductors (memory).

Two implied scenarios:

  • If rate hikes are less severe / already priced in, markets can rebound.
  • If the Fed is more hawkish than expected, any rebound through mid-September may remain weak due to discount-rate pressure.

Market backdrop & key moves (KOSPI / semiconductors)

KOSPI drawdown and circuit breaker episode

  • The KOSPI fell sharply in late July after a “circuit breaker” episode (trading halt when down >10%) for two consecutive days.
  • Index example given:
    • Around 6,200 (early July) → expectation of breaking 10,000
    • Plunge from about 9,300 → 5,300
    • By September, fluctuating around ~6,900

Memory semiconductors cited as the main driver

  • Memory is described as making up up to ~60% of the semiconductor market share (as stated).
  • International examples cited for memory-related drawdowns:
    • Micron Technology (down mentioned)
    • SanDisk down >60% (“SanDisk” context)
    • Kioxia down >60%; ranking dropped to ~4th–5th by market cap

What triggered July’s selloff (supply/demand mechanics)

A core framework is emphasized repeatedly:

Stock price = supply & demand

July supply/demand was worsened by foreign selling and a semiconductor supply “shock.”

Foreign selling magnitude

  • Foreigners sold ~88 trillion KRW during June–July.

FX flow reasoning (not sufficient alone)

  • USD/FX mentioned around 1,550 KRW before the sharp drop.
  • The argument: if the FX move had been “favorable,” foreign investors could have rotated differently—so FX alone doesn’t fully explain the selling.

Trigger event: Changxin Memory listing (China) — July 27

  • Changxin Memory is described as having about ~8% global DRAM market share—small by share, but impactful via expectations.
  • Foreign buying:
    • Foreigners bought ~47 trillion KRW on the GEOCHANG Board (compared to Korean KOSDAQ framing).
  • Valuation skepticism / “PR” framing:
    • The guest characterizes Changxin as “PR” / signaling, not fundamentally cheap value.
    • Criticism noted as “ridiculously expensive,” implying valuation concerns (stated as ~100x price vs peers, per the claim).

Ongoing support via buybacks (Samsung / SK hynix)

Why buybacks matter into September

  • September weakness is partly cushioned by share buybacks, especially for:
    • Samsung Electronics
    • SK hynix

Risk if buybacks fade / foreigners don’t return

  • Concern raised: if buybacks fade and foreign investors don’t come back, there may be less demand support.

Proposed “quick add” mechanism for SK hynix

  • ADR listing in New York is discussed as an earlier valuation driver.
  • Fund flow described:
    • ~40 trillion KRW equivalent raised via ADR issuance (estimate given)
    • Plan: use proceeds to buy back and cancel ~40 trillion KRW of treasury shares in Korea
  • “Exchange-rate stability” rationale:
    • Sudden USD inflows reduced KRW volatility (as stated: “exchange rate dropped sharply because 40 trillion suddenly flowed in”).

Price level mentioned

  • SK hynix cited at about ~1.2 million won before being lifted by support.

Macro timeline & catalysts (September → October)

Planned macro catalysts

  • Sep 16: U.S. FOMC
  • Sep 17–18: Japan non-regular meeting (BOJ-related timing)

Earnings / corporate catalysts

  • Micron Technology earnings mentioned for end of September
    • Quarters referenced: Micron fiscal 6/7/8 (vs calendar quarters)
    • Claim: high-priced volume carryover from the prior quarter supports stronger results
  • Samsung Electronics “standard earnings” and SK hynix “main earnings” continue until end of October
  • Expected market behavior:
    • Mid-September: more wait-and-see due to macro + earnings visibility
    • After the “Bihyo meeting” (unclear transcript), anticipation rises further
    • A more meaningful rebound expected late September or October

Fed / Japan rate-hike probability & impact on stocks

Japan rates

  • Japan policy rate described as currently 1%
  • 100% probability of raising this time
  • Raise by 50 bp (explicitly stated)

Fed communication and “shock” expectations

  • Fed messaging described as more ambiguous.
  • The guest expects a shock even if hikes are “priced,” because expectations can differ.
  • Implied action: “definitely going to buy on September 16” (guest’s personal action plan).
  • Concern about further hikes:
    • If rates reach ~4%, they “won’t raise further” (as stated),
    • but the initial shock still matters for near-term price action.

Carry trade / FX risk framing (N-yield, yen, global funds)

Discussion centers on how higher Japan interest rates could trigger unwinding of carry trades and raise FX risk for global investors.

Key points:

  • The guest argues the scale has shrunk: global carry trades decreased significantly.
  • Yield references:
    • COVID era: international 10-year yield ~0.5%
    • Early 2019: ~1.5–2.5%
    • ~3%+ cited for 2018
  • Judgment:
    • Despite risks, Japan’s macro debt and aging demographics are cited as reasons not to expect a forced rapid “repayment” of carry positions.
  • Net takeaway:
    • Don’t worry too much about carry-trade closure; focus more on Fed rates and inflation data ahead of FOMC.

KOSPI target discussion (confidence tied to Samsung / SK hynix)

  • The “KOSPI 7,000 era” is described as potentially returning.
  • Scenario proposed:
    • Rebound (“right shoulder” idea) begins in October
    • KOSPI could rise toward ~7,500 by the time SK hynix announces earnings in October

AI / semiconductors demand narrative (supportive, linked to semis)

Even though framed as non-core, it supports the semiconductor resilience thesis:

  • AI model launch and infrastructure cycle used to justify ongoing semis demand.
    • Mention: OpenAI Astra (Astra model name)
  • Concern scenario:
    • If OpenAI “collapses,” it could cascade to Nvidia and Oracle
    • But belief is the cycle is more durable
  • Semis demand thesis:
    • AI infrastructure build-out demand won’t stop, so memory semiconductors remain necessary.

Seasonality & explicit September investing framework (cash vs. holdings)

General caution

  • “Try to avoid” major moves during September volatility around:
    • FOMC
    • earnings

Seasonal claim

  • September is described as the only month with negative average returns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq (as stated).

Seasonal drivers cited

  • U.S. fiscal year ends end of September → budgeting spending dynamics described
  • Chuseok liquidity contraction:
    • markets typically weak until about 3 days before Chuseok
    • then improves
  • “Weekend effect”:
    • Friday softness due to weekend uncertainty risk
    • during Chuseok also includes Thursday / Friday / Sunday effects

Action plan (explicit allocation)

  • Use ~70–80% of currently held cash to buy stocks before Chuseok.
  • If no major adverse events occur during the holiday, deploy the remaining ~30% after Chuseok ends.

This is framed as “the strategy we have established” for liquidity drying up in September.

Tickers / instruments / assets mentioned

  • KOSPI (Korean index)
  • Samsung Electronics
  • SK hynix
  • Micron Technology (MU implied)
  • Nvidia (NVDA implied)
  • Oracle
  • SanDisk
  • Kioxia
  • Changxin Memory (listed July 27)
  • OpenAI / AI model: Astra
  • S&P 500
  • Nasdaq
  • Macro rates referenced:
    • FOMC, BOJ, U.S. policy rate, Japan policy rate
    • 10-year yield referenced (no ticker given)

Methodology / framework explicitly shared

Stock valuation / price mechanism framework

  • Most important factor emphasized: supply over everything
  • Stock price is determined by supply and demand
  • Identify triggers by observing who is changing supply/demand (e.g., foreign selling, new listings)

Event-driven trading plan

  • Map macro events (Fed/Japan meetings) to expected volatility:
    • rebound possible until mid-September
    • then weaker if rate fears dominate
  • Map earnings dates to a second wave of price movement:
    • increased wait-and-see mid-September
    • rebound/anticipation late Sep/Oct around semis earnings

Seasonality allocation rule

  • Before Chuseok: buy 70–80% of cash
  • After Chuseok (if no shock): deploy remaining 30%

Key numbers / timelines / recommendations & cautions

  • Circuit breaker episode:
    • Drop from ~9,300 → ~5,300 over two halt days (late July)
  • KOSPI reference points:
    • Early July: ~6,200
    • September: ~6,900
  • Foreign selling:
    • ~88 trillion KRW (June–July)
    • “Foreigners sold nearly 200 trillion KRW this year” (as stated)
  • Changxin Memory:
    • IPO/listing date: July 27
    • DRAM share cited: ~8%
    • Foreign buys on GEOCHANG Board: ~47 trillion KRW
  • FX:
    • Rate mentioned around 1,550 KRW pre-drop; later ~1,350 KRW referenced
  • Macro dates:
    • Sep 16: U.S. FOMC
    • Sep 17–18: Japan meeting
  • Rate assumptions:
    • Japan: 1%, 100% chance to raise by 50 bp
    • Fed: potential “shock” on first decision day; later comment that around ~4% may cap further hikes
  • Earnings timing:
    • Micron: end of September
    • Samsung / SK hynix: through end of October
  • Market target:
    • KOSPI could rise toward ~7,500 by October
  • Investment allocation rule:
    • Deploy 70–80% cash before Chuseok
    • Deploy remaining 30% after Chuseok if no adverse events

Disclosures / disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.

Presenters / sources

  • Kim (host of “Investment Insight Money Report” / “머니리포트” segment)
  • Mr. Park Se-ik (박세익), CEO of Chesley Investment Advisory (spelled/transcribed as Chesley/Chesley variations)
  • Video title indicates: “I 머니리포트” segment; no additional named sources/sponsors are provided in the subtitles.

Original video