Gerd Kommer, lohnen sich Immobilien 2026 endlich wieder?

Finance-Focused Framing (Germany: Real Estate vs Investing)

Core question / framing

The interview discusses when buying vs renting a home is financially worthwhile, especially in light of:

• much higher interest rates over the past few years, and
• uncertainty about near-term property prices.

The host summarizes Finanzip’s position:

If rent and purchase prices are “reasonable,” the financial difference versus an ETF-based approach is often not huge.

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Lifestyle vs Economic Decision

Homeownership is portrayed as partly a lifestyle/emotional choice, but the motives highlighted in survey-like framing are said to be primarily financial, such as:

• retirement provision, and
• protection from rent increases.

The discussion then pivots to the numbers, focusing on:

• homeownership vs investing in ETFs (e.g., rent + a diversified stock portfolio).

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Long-Run Research Claim: Rent + ETFs Can Outperform Buying (with discipline)

A central thesis is that in Germany (and also other countries), the combination of:

• paying rent, and
• investing via a buy-and-hold, broadly diversified stock portfolio / ETF savings plan

can result in tenants achieving higher final net worth than homeowners.

Timeline(s) mentioned

• Results discussed for 25–30 years
• References to longer historical windows: since ~1970 / ~50–55 years

Key condition: discipline

The argument stresses that discipline is required. ETF investing is framed as analogous to servicing a mortgage monthly—i.e., consistently investing over the long term.

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Interest-Rate Regime Shift: “Perfect Storm” (2010–2021) vs Post-2022

The “golden era” for German residential real estate

The period is roughly defined as:

• ~2010 to end of 2021 (about 12 years)

Described drivers:

• falling / historically low interest rates (following a broader trend since the 1980s), and
• a sharp rise in German residential prices.

Turning point in 2022

In 2022, rising interest rates reversed the prior dynamic. Example:

• mortgage rates increasing from ~1% to ~4% (i.e., “jumped from 1% to 4%”).

The implied recommendation is not a blanket “buy now,” but that today’s environment makes buying more challenging.

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Why Real Estate Can Be More Sensitive to Rates Than ETFs

Leverage structure

Real estate is described as debt-heavy:

• With external financing, purchases happen sooner; without leverage, buying would be much later (example given: equity-only purchase could delay until age 65–70).

By contrast, ETF investing can start with much smaller capital (example: as little as €5).

Higher relative damage from rate increases

Because real estate is more leveraged, rising rates cause larger relative harm to the sector than they do to diversified stocks.

“Mortgage paid off, but exposure remains” logic

Even if a borrower has repaid their own loan, the asset can still be impacted:

• future buyers face higher financing costs,
• which reduces demand and suppresses prices.

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Rental Affordability vs International Comparison (Germany “Normalization”)

The discussion argues that German rent levels are less extreme than media narratives suggest.

Historical context

• Germany was often described as “paradise for renters” around 2015–2016.

Rent-to-income metric (the claimed corridor)

A typical rent expenditure ratio is described as falling roughly within:

• ~20–40% (or ~25–35%, depending on country/time)

The claim: German history was within this corridor, and after being “cheap,” rent is now described as more or less back to normal.

“Micro-logic” example

Even when city vs countryside ratios look different, higher city incomes can offset the burden:

• example compares about 30% rent share versus 45/150 (used to illustrate similar effective burden).

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Macro/Income Pressure Behind Rent Sensitivity

The interview links rent complaints to retirement risk:

• The statutory pension is described as inadequate, especially for those younger than 60.

Hypothesized behavioral implication:

• people may need to save more for retirement via stock ETFs,
• increasing pressure to keep living costs (including rent) manageable.

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Housing Supply & Regulation (State Policies)

A major factor behind “too little being built” is attributed to state regulations (framed as hyperregulation), including:

• energy/heating standards,
• insulation,
• accessibility requirements,
• parking requirements, etc.

Policy conclusion (as argued)

• Rent control is presented as a possible band-aid that may not work long-term and could worsen outcomes.
• The proposed solution is more construction supply to reduce rents sustainably.

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Demographics and the “Remanence” Effect (Germany)

Long-term driver

The driver highlighted is demographics, especially the baby boomer bulge.

The claim

As boomers age (roughly 55–75), later waves of housing availability are expected as people die and properties become vacant—described as a remanence effect.

Timeline effect

• expected to “only take effect” in the next 10–15 years
• and matters most in the “early” part of that window (as framed in the discussion)

Pricing assumption

Markets are said to anticipate these effects, with the claim that:

“the price is already included.”

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City vs Countryside: How Interest Rates and Prices Drive Affordability

Main mechanism

• Interest rates are assumed to be the same for everyone
• but property prices vary greatly by location

So buying in expensive cities may become unattractive relative to renting.

Commuting-distance trade-off

The “worth it” zone is suggested to exist beyond the core city, with an example:

• commuting time of about 15–20 minutes more
• home office is mentioned as supportive

A Munich anecdote illustrates:

• rents dropping when moving from about ~5 km closer to the center to ~15 km in a “micro-location,” while transport remains good.

The discussion adds a caution:

• there are large regional differences; even 10 km can materially change affordability.

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Current “Exceptional Situation”: High Prices + High Renovation Costs

The guest describes a difficult buy environment where:

• purchase prices may have fallen, but not enough,
• interest rates remain high,
• income growth is weak, and
• climate/heat-transition renovation requirements raise costs.

The implicit caution is that a “strike now” mentality is not advocated; instead:

• renting and ETF alternatives are presented as viable.

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Positioning / Recommendation (Not a Direct “Buy/Sell” Command)

The practical investment-style takeaway:

• Buying is not universally optimal right now.
• Rent + ETF savings can be an attractive alternative.

The host/guest also warns against oversimplified narratives, such as:

• housing shortages automatically making returns “skyrocket.”

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• Finanzip: states it is “neutral” in principle—comparing rent + purchase against an ETF alternative.
• Guest: adds that outcomes depend on individual circumstances and that regional differences matter significantly.

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Instruments / Assets Mentioned

• ETFs (generic; no ticker provided)
• Global equity ETF (available “on the open market”; no ticker provided)
• German residential real estate / property (no specific properties named)

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Key Numbers Mentioned

• Interest-rate example: ~1% to ~4% (around 2022)
• Research/result horizons:
  • 25–30 years
  • references to since ~1970 / ~50–55 years
• Decision/forecast framing:
  • “next 5 years” (survey framing)
  • “golden era”: ~2010 to end of 2021 (12 years)
  • demographics effect: 10–15 years
• Rent-to-income corridor: ~20–40% (or ~25–35%)
• City example rent burden:
  • about 30% vs 45/150
• ETF investing minimum example: as little as €5
• Pension-related example: just €5,000
• Asset management entry ticket: €1 million (minimum mentioned for access to that consulting/asset management service)

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Methodology / Framework Described

• Compare financial outcomes over relevant time horizons between:
  • Renting + ETF savings (buy-and-hold, diversified portfolio)
  • vs Buying a home for personal use (including mortgage-servicing discipline)
• ETF-side assumption:
  • requires monthly discipline (analogized to paying a mortgage)
• Use rent + stock portfolio to estimate whether tenants achieve higher final net worth over 25–30 years
• Sensitivity logic (implied):
  • evaluate outcomes under different interest-rate regimes (falling vs rising)
• City vs countryside logic:
  • since interest rates are assumed similar, affordability depends strongly on purchase prices
  • and potentially on commuting time (possibly mitigated by home office)

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Gert (Gerd) Kommer (real estate expert and asset manager; spelling varies in subtitles)
• Host / interviewer (Finanzip; name not provided in subtitles)
• Finanzip / Finanzip team (individual names not provided)

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