La Inversión en Valor sigue siendo la Apuesta Ganadora

Summary

Carlos Valcárcel, manager of MyInvestor Value, discussed the fund’s recent correction and explained how its value-investing process uses valuation and portfolio rotation. He said he remains calm and had increased his own investment in the fund during the downturn. His central argument was that market declines can create opportunities, but a falling share price alone is not a reason to buy.

Fund performance and portfolio figures

The figures below are the manager’s figures as presented in the video. The subtitles contain some unclear or inconsistent dates and comparisons.

• MyInvestor Value was approaching its fifth anniversary, with more than €135 million across the fund and pension plan and over 20,500 investors.
• Since the fund began in November 2021, he said it had returned almost 50%, compared with about 15% for the small-company index.
• For a longer, roughly seven-year record that includes his previous fund-management period, he cited an annualized return of 14.3%. He also gave figures of 6.6% annualized for small companies and said the small-company index had barely advanced; the exact comparison is unclear in the transcript.
• The fund had fallen about 8.5% since August, or roughly 10% from its peak, and was about 11 percentage points behind the global index over the stated comparison period.
• He cited these historical drawdown and recovery comparisons:
  • During the COVID decline and rebound, the fund gained 62%, versus 27% for its index, which he attributed partly to portfolio changes.
  • In 2022, the fund fell 16%, versus 30% for the index, as the portfolio was more defensive.
  • In another correction, he said the fund and index fell by about 14%, followed by gains of 33% versus 16%. The dates and exact comparison are not fully clear.
• Current portfolio metrics he cited included:
  • 0.8× book value, down from 0.9×.
  • Below 9× estimated 2027 earnings.
  • Portfolio-company share prices averaging about 60% of previous highs.
  • 44 companies after adding microcaps; elsewhere, the transcript also mentions 41, so the exact current holding count is unclear.
  • The top 10 holdings represented more than 40% of the fund.
  • An average dividend yield of about 4%, with companies distributing roughly one-third of profits and reinvesting the rest.
  • Estimated portfolio volatility of 21.9, versus 37 for individual holdings; the units or calculation are not specified.
  • Fund liquidity described as 97.5%, with trading capacity equivalent to 20% of average daily volume; the precise meaning of the first figure is unclear.
• He said the portfolio’s exposure to energy-related names had been reduced and that it had become more diversified through microcap holdings. He also cited a 0.4× leverage or debt measure after excluding two property companies, though the precise metric is unclear.

Investment framework and approach

Valcárcel described the following process:

• Generate and screen ideas using financial-quality filters, then analyze the businesses and their valuations.
• Use valuation discipline: sell when a holding approaches its assessed value and consider buying when its price falls below that value.
• Treat corrections differently: distinguish market-wide or external shocks from declines caused by deteriorating business fundamentals or excessive prior valuations.
• Use downturns to improve the portfolio, for example by exchanging indebted businesses for similar, financially stronger companies.
• Build positions gradually: initial positions are often around 2–3%, with additions if prices continue falling and the investment case remains intact.
• Rotate rather than hold automatically: sell holdings whose potential has narrowed and redeploy into more attractive ideas. He called the value added through this active rotation “Betan” and said its historical average had been around 20%; his explanation of the calculation was not entirely clear.
• Diversify while maintaining meaningful positions in the strongest ideas. He also said he tries to avoid excessive overlap with other value funds investors may own.
• Invest periodically and maintain a long-term horizon, rather than trying to identify the exact market bottom.

He emphasized that valuation can provide a basis for tolerating volatility but does not eliminate the possibility of further losses. He cited the value-investing idea that buying well often feels uncomfortable.

Macro and market views

• Artificial intelligence: Presented as a potential productivity and margin tailwind for smaller companies, particularly sector leaders. He also cautioned about concentration and valuation risk in technology-heavy indices such as the Nasdaq and MSCI World.
• Energy, interest rates and oil: He viewed these as important near-term pressures on smaller companies, homebuilders, industrials and automakers. He expected oil to be lower over the medium term but acknowledged uncertainty.
• Housing: He argued that developed economies face a structural housing shortage. In the UK, he saw housing demand as supportive of homebuilders. In Germany, he viewed rental demand and low property valuations as potential opportunities while recognizing interest-rate and expropriation risks.
• Infrastructure: He said the sector could benefit from aging infrastructure, urbanization and future reconstruction needs, including in Ukraine and the Middle East.
• Market concentration: He cautioned that indices can become concentrated in recent winners, while active managers can sell holdings whose valuations have risen and reinvest in cheaper alternatives.

Companies, assets and sectors mentioned

No ticker symbols were explicitly provided in the subtitles.

• Funds, indices and instruments: MyInvestor Value; its pension plan; MSCI World; Nasdaq; government bonds; and short-term repo or cash management.
• Small-cap, energy and materials-related holdings or examples: Verbio, Vallourec, Clariant, DCC and Bilfinger.
• Housing, property and real estate: Barratt, Persimmon, Bellway, Savills, LEG Immobilien and Aroundtown.
  • Barratt was cited at 0.5× book value, with roughly 6,000 homes sold and expectations mentioned of 6,100 and 6,400.
  • Aroundtown was cited at 0.19× book value, with a share price around €1.40 and a stated dividend yield near 10%. The manager discussed German property valuations, leverage and political risk.
• Infrastructure and construction: Webuild and OHL. He said OHL was around 0.7× book value, had been severely troubled and merited further analysis; he did not present it as a completed investment recommendation.
• Automotive, industrials and logistics: Renault, CIE Automotive, Dometic, Kion, Dormakaba, Arbonia, Vitesco, Electrolux and Interpump. Kion was linked to warehouse automation and possible AI-driven productivity investment.
• Airlines and travel: EasyJet, Jet2, Wizz Air and Ryanair. He said he preferred businesses he felt able to value and described Wizz Air as a high-growth case whose operating losses made it difficult for him to assess.
• Consumer, luxury and sportswear: Nike, Hermès, LVMH/Louis Vuitton, McDonald’s, Under Armour, Lululemon, Zara and Primark.
  • Nike was used to illustrate that an 80% share-price decline does not necessarily make a company cheap. He cited roughly 27× earnings, 23× EBIT, 3.7× book value, and ROE of about 12%–15%.
• Technology and financials: ASML, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Samsung, SAP, Santander, MyInvestor and Trade Republic.
  • He contrasted expensive growth shares—citing ASML at roughly 30–35× profits and Tesla at 220× earnings / 190× operating profit—with lower-valued companies.
  • He also noted that Santander had moved from about 0.5× book value historically to 1.6×, and discussed risks to banks’ long-term returns.
• Other examples: De’Longhi, Barco, Ebro Foods and Nonwovens.

Explicit cautions and disclosures

• Do not buy solely because a share has fallen sharply. The manager and host stressed that some companies never recover, and that valuation and business analysis are essential. Nike was used as an example of a share that could still be expensive after a large decline.
• Do not assume a company is safe simply because it is considered high quality; excessive valuation, competition, debt or business deterioration can still lead to substantial losses.
• Valuation is not a market-timing tool: a share can fall further after it first appears cheap.
• The manager acknowledged that his views could be wrong and that permanent capital loss is possible. No formal “not financial advice” statement appears in the subtitles.

Presenters and sources

• Andrés, host of La Pizarra de Andrés.
• Carlos Valcárcel, manager of MyInvestor Value.
• Investing figures and ideas referenced in the discussion included Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Álvaro Guzmán and Jeremy Grantham. Bloomberg was mentioned as a data terminal, and Morningstar in connection with fund rankings.