Bitcoin: Where in the Cycle Are We?

Finance-focused Summary (Bitcoin cycle & timing framework)

Core thesis

• Bitcoin tends to top and bottom on an ~4-year cadence, and this does not mean Bitcoin is “useless” during bear markets.
• The speaker argues we are near the end of the bear market, based on how prior cycles have matched:
  • Timing, and
  • Drawdown relative to historical averages.
• They emphasize no guarantees—Bitcoin could still move lower or take longer to form a bottom.

Instruments / assets mentioned

• Bitcoin (BTC) (primary focus)
• S&P 500 index (used as an analogy for market-cycle behavior)
• Crypto “altcoins” (rotation/momentum discussion)
• Bitcoin dominance (mentioned, but no specific value given)
• US Federal Reserve policy regime (macro context)
• Quantitative Tightening (QT) (timing compared to 2019)
• US rate cuts (a three-cut comparison is referenced for 2019)

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Explicit cycle/timing numbers & levels cited (BTC)

Cycle tops (days)

The speaker lists several cycle-top day counts, roughly in this range:

• About day 1,069
• day 1,068
• day 1,059
• ~day 1,050

Recent cycle bottom timing (measured from low)

• Two cycles ago bottom: day 1,432
• Last cycle bottom: ~day 1,436
• Current cycle day count: day 1,354
• They reference a typical cycle length of ~1,430–1,440 days, suggesting the current cycle may be close to transitioning.
• Caution: “No guarantees”; Bitcoin could still go a little bit lower.

Bear-market progression (measured from peak)

• Current: day 304
• Average bear-market bottom (historical): day ~406
• Conclusion: the speaker frames it as roughly ~3/4 of the way through the typical bear market, implying there may still be time and/or downside remaining.

Seasonal window (historical timing for bottoms)

• Suggested likely bottom window: late September through mid-December
  • Examples cited:
    • 2018 bottom: December
    • Prior cycle bottom: November
    • Older cycle reference: around January
• “Maybe October” is explicitly entertained as plausible.

Price-based references

• The speaker references being below $60K in the current midterm period.
• They mention accumulation / DCA starting when BTC went below $60K (no exact entry amount stated).

Halving-to-bear-market behavior

• After halvings, BTC is said to often trend down/weak for a long stretch.
• Example chart/index levels mentioned:
  • January 15th low of 166
  • August low of 162
  • (These appear to be chart-index levels, not clearly labeled USD prices.)

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Macro/market-regime comparisons used

Bitcoin vs. stocks in midterm years

• Claim: Bitcoin does not follow the stock market in midterm years.
• Example (2018):
  • Stock market: down ~6% (speaker’s claim)
  • Bitcoin: down ~73% (speaker’s claim)

2019 comparison (“favorite” analog)

• Bitcoin topped about 2 months before QT ended
  • QT end referenced as occurring around August
• “No rotation into altcoins”
• Three Fed rate cuts during that year
• Market psychology near the top:
  • Apathy with Bitcoin dominance rising

Presidential/midterm “regime” overlay

• Comparison between:
  • “Trump’s second term” and “Biden’s term”
• Speaker’s claim:
  • BTC drawdown was similar during Biden’s term,
  • followed by a bottom and then the next bull market.

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Methodology / framework (as stated)

4-year cycle framework

• Tops and bottoms tend to occur roughly every 4 years.
• The emphasis is on bottom timing, not on “guaranteed highs.”

Cycle timing measured two ways

• From cycle low:
  • Compare current day-count to prior cycle day-counts to estimate proximity to a transition.
• From cycle high (bear-market progression):
  • Compare current “day since peak” to historical average bottom timing (e.g., average bottom ~day 406, while current is ~day 304).

Moving average regime check

• Repeated pattern cited from past cycles:
  • “Lose the 50-week moving average, then the 100, then the 200”
• Current cycle described as being around the 200-week moving average.

Seasonality in bear markets

• Uses historical months where bottoms occurred (Jan/Nov/Dec examples) to support a late Sep–mid Dec expectation.

Macro regime analog (2019 overlay)

• Compares the current environment to 2019 via:
  • QT ending timing
  • Number of rate cuts
  • Lack of altcoin rotation
  • Dominance/apathy signals

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Recommendations / positioning guidance (risk-management tone)

DCA recommendation (conditional / time-horizon dependent)

• The speaker states:
  • “If you start DCA’ing Bitcoin in the second half of the midterm year, you’re probably going to be fine long term.”
• They explicitly note: not financial advice.
• They also argue:
  • For short horizons (e.g., 3 months), volatility could be an issue.
  • Longer horizons reduce concern about interim drawdowns.

Staged accumulation already

• They mention buying BTC in:
  • summer 2018
  • summer 2022
• Both periods were followed by further declines, but they “didn’t care,” using that as justification for sticking to a plan.

No guarantee on timing

• Repeated caution that the bottom could arrive:
  • sooner than October, or
  • as late as December
• They suggest history indicates roughly ~1 year bear-market duration.

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• Not financial advice (explicitly stated in the context of DCA and expectations).

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Other notable non-finance items (time-linked to crypto topic)

Sponsorship/promotion and conference

• Investing Through the Cycles conference in Miami
  • Main day: Nov 21
• Ticketing details:
  • Ticket prices increase Sep 1
  • Party tier space is limited
• The conference timing is tied to the expectation that the market could be near the cycle low by late November.

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Presenter / sources

• Presenter: Benjamin Cowen
• Ticketing site referenced: benjamincowan.com
• No external financial-institution research sources are cited in the subtitles.
• Macro references are to the Federal Reserve, and general cycle comparison includes the S&P 500.