2022 ICT Mentorship Episode 25

Finance-Focused Summary

The presenter demonstrates a bearish intraday setup on the E-mini S&P 500 June 2022 futures contract (ES), connecting a broader daily-chart bias to a lower-timeframe entry. He presents the example as an application of his “daily rebalance” and liquidity framework, which he says can also be applied to forex.

His claims about algorithmic market behavior are the presenter’s interpretation, not independently established facts.

Framework and Example

• Establish context and directional bias: The presenter points to a bearish order block and a bearish seasonal tendency around May. He says U.S. equity index futures and stocks—including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell—have historically tended to weaken from the last week of April into May, while cautioning that this does not happen reliably every year.
• Map liquidity: Identify relative highs and lows and the buy-side or sell-side liquidity the presenter expects around them. In the example, price first moves above relative highs, which he interprets as taking buy-side liquidity, then declines toward sell-side liquidity below prior lows.
• Look for a retracement and rebalance: After a large down day on Monday, May 9, the presenter expects a retracement toward Friday’s low, describing it as a rebalance of Monday’s range. He interprets the next day’s early rally as a potential short setup rather than evidence that the broader bearish move has reversed.
• Use time-of-day context: The example is framed in New York time. The presenter highlights the 8:30 a.m. news-embargo time and the 9:30 a.m. U.S. equity-market open, looking for an early rally that runs liquidity before a move lower. He calls the rally a “Judas swing.”
• Refine the entry on lower time frames: He moves from the daily chart to hourly, 15-minute, five-minute, four-minute, three-minute, and two-minute charts. Within the identified displacement leg, he looks for a fair value gap (FVG) and a short-term low being taken out as confirmation. In this example, he identifies the FVG on the two-minute chart.
• Respect premium and discount and place risk carefully: He says not to sell in the discount portion of the identified price swing. The proposed short should be in premium, around or above the 50% equilibrium level. For the illustrated range, he cites 4,044.5 as the equilibrium level.
• Manage the trade rather than tightening the stop prematurely: Initial stop placement is above the candle that creates the FVG, or above a nearby swing high for a wider stop. He advises waiting for a larger structural shift—such as a subsequent low breaking—before moving the stop. He warns that tightening a stop too quickly can cut off a trade before it has room to develop.
• Practice before live trading: The presenter recommends studying and backtesting the model, then forward-testing it, before considering live funds.

Instruments and Tools Mentioned

• Futures and index markets: E-mini S&P 500 June 2022 contract; S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell.
• Forex: The presenter says the framework can be applied to forex and specifically mentions yen pairs, the New Zealand dollar, and the Australian dollar for Asian-session activity.
• Platforms: TradingView is used for the lesson. Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader, TradeStation, and TD Ameritrade are mentioned as alternatives.

Numbers, Timelines, and Cautions

• Example dates: Monday, May 9, 2022, and Tuesday, May 10, 2022. The video production date is stated as May 10.
• Timing: New York midnight is used to mark the start of a new day. 8:30 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. are key times in the example. The presenter says the expected move came about 27 minutes later than he would have preferred.
• Position sizing: He cites approximately $5 per point/handle for an E-mini S&P micro contract versus $50 for a mini.
• Study period: He recommends three months of diligent study and backtesting, followed by two or three months of forward testing, describing the overall process as roughly six months.
• Risk caution: The presenter says learners should not rush into trading live funds. He says losing trades are inevitable, does not promise profitability, a 100% win rate, or high returns, and warns that an undercapitalized account—including a $100 account—is likely to fail. He does not describe the material as financial advice.

Presenter and Referenced Sources

• Presenter: ICT (The Inner Circle Trader).
• Referenced sources and people: Hannah FX / Hannah 4x (a YouTube channel discussed by the presenter); Chris Laurie (mentioned in a comparison); BabyPips (where the presenter says he contributed in 2010); and the presenter’s free Scout Sniper series.
• Charting platform used: TradingView.