Video summary

Use the 50 and 200 Week Moving Averages to Your Advantage!

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-Focused Summary (Markets, Investing, Risk, Performance)

Core methodology: Weekly 50/200 Moving Averages + a “Phase” framework

  • Use weekly (not just daily/intraday) 50-week (50W) and 200-week (200W) moving averages to avoid “myopic” breakouts that can fail against the longer-term trend.
  • Interpret both:
    • Price position relative to 50W/200W (where the market sits versus the averages)
    • Slope/relative slope of 50W vs 200W
  • Trading/position approach emphasizes:
    • Trend continuations
    • Trend reversals/breakdowns
    • Pullbacks/retracements back to the major moving average as potentially lower-risk entries
    • For shorts, focus on moving-average behavior and slope deterioration as confirmation—not just momentum indicators.
  • “Phase” / confirmation timing:
    • Often requires waiting for a second week (i.e., using weekly closes rather than reacting instantly).

Key Tickers, Instruments, Sectors, and What Was Said

Stocks / Equities (weekly chart focus; earnings setups; long/short bias)

  • MO (Altria Group) — tobacco

    • 50W below 200W
    • 50W slope declining since Jan 2020
    • Suggested to “keep on list”, not necessarily buy during a market selloff
    • Support: ~44.69 (speaker notes current price is about $3 higher)
    • Upside catalyst idea: tobacco companies investing in potential federal cannabis legalization (not currently federally on table)
    • Watch for possible “golden cross” if 50W accelerates and crosses above 200W

  • ADBE (Adobe) — earnings/technical setup

    • Price previously retraced to the 50-week while 50W slope stayed positive
    • Bear case: breaks below the 50W and doesn’t recover for two weeks, or if 50W slope turns down → consolidation could unwind toward ~350
    • Bull case: holds and breaks back through the 50W
    • Commentary bias in context: speaker leans “probably down more than up” (mentions momentum but doesn’t anchor solely on it)
    • Includes a “second-week” style confirmation concept

  • AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) — chips

    • Been above 50W since ~2018, then broke down under 50W
    • Suggests chip-market weakness
    • Consider short if:
      • another bounce occurs and/or
      • 50W slope turns negative
    • Potential downside path: ~30% down closer to ~40, then reassess where 200W intersects

  • AMZN (Amazon) — mega-cap; shorting discussed with risk caveats

    • Briefly broke under 50W during the pandemic, but 50W slope never went negative
    • After a long uptrend: lots of sideways consolidation
    • Bear trigger idea:
      • a weekly close taking it out around ~33.50 (for short/downswing consideration)
    • Risk framing: even with a large percentage drop, it could still be “attractive” relative to the stated risk approach (“steps up escalator down”)

  • BP (British Petroleum) — energy

    • Chopped around 50W; broke down in the pandemic; slope down at one point
    • More bullish shift:
      • breaking/holding over 50W
      • approaching 200W within <$3–$4
    • Levels/risk logic:
      • If it holds above ~25 or clears highs → consider a probe over ~27
      • Prefer small probes and to be nimble; macro matters (“down on the day following the market”)
    • Short bias only if it breaks down under 50W

  • Kane (commodity-cycle comment; likely partial/incorrect name)

    • Described as being ahead of the public with trailing stops
    • Theme indicators:
      • Inclining 50W slope
      • 200W lagging, but recently surpassed (“over the 200 which it hadn’t been for years”)
    • Mentioned correction/target zone: around ~7.85
    • No clear ticker stated

  • Corn — commodity (ticker not specified)

    • When corn took out the 50W, they were out
    • Currently: reversal pattern; down about 4% on the referenced Thursday
    • Warning: not necessarily bullish trend yet
    • Watch: 50W approaching 200W
    • Speaker cited ~1750 as a “very tempting correction” buy zone conditional on moving-average slope changes

  • eHealth — described as “e-health”

    • After earnings-related big decline, attempting to recover
    • 50W slope negative, 200W slope positive
    • Potential trigger: watch for a move above ~64–67
    • Also framed as possibly “another tremendous sign of weakness”:
      • could become a short setup under 200W if momentum fails

  • Gold — position/trailing stop + confirmation

    • Speaker holds a position
    • Has taken profit targets and a profitable trailing stop
    • Gold’s run stopped around the 50-week
    • 50W slope: slightly up / neutral
    • Bull confirmation criteria:
      • weekly close over the 50W
      • follow-through the following week
    • If confirmed: expect another leg up; framed as linked to “inflation players” rotating out

  • Latin America “country fund ETF” (likely ILF mentioned as “ilf”)

    • Levels/risk:
      • If it holds around ~29: wait (don’t chase this week if risk-off)
      • If it holds next week: wait for confirmation such as clearing 30.10
      • Use ~29 as risk/stop level

  • South Africa country ETF (ticker not specified)

    • Similar to ILF but already broke out
    • Watch for selloff to around ~46 (text messy; includes mention of “spy 46”)
    • “Good risk to under here”
    • If breakout continues: possible over ~52.36 then reassess

  • Infrastructure / 5G theme — American Tower

    • AMT (American Tower) implied
    • Daily chart described as golden cross (50-day over 200-day)
    • Retracement plan:
      • watch for pullback toward ~237, or treat under ~240 as a risk zone
      • Prefer waiting for strength: move over ~245–247

Earnings Plays (explicit daily levels + risk)

  • Disney (DIS) — earnings & short bias if it fails

    • Reports Thursday night
    • Technical: breakdown under the 50-day moving average; 50-day slope negative
    • If earnings aren’t “killer” and price can’t reclaim the 50-day:
      • downside targets near ~178–179
      • another short opportunity near the 200-day moving average

  • TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) — choppy; two risk options

    • Reported; described as choppy
    • Setup: momentum divergence / positive divergence and outperformance vs benchmark
    • Must clear:
      • two closes over ~10.50 to clear the 200-day
    • Risk alternatives:
      • risk to ~9.95, or
      • if it clears the 200-day and closes above it: risk tied to the day’s low (tighter risk)

  • DDD (3D Systems) — short-biased into negative trend

    • Explicit caution: “Why buy ahead of a negative sloping 50-day moving average”
    • Next day: inside day, then break down under prior low
    • Levels:
      • recent low ~17.47
      • close behind ~17.23
    • Countertrend only if lows hold and momentum improves; needs to reclaim above the Bollinger band

  • Lockheed Martin? (speaker typo likely) / “LADO” — cyber/defense

    • Ticker not clearly provided; described as a cybersecurity / industrial defense stock
    • Trigger:
      • holds around ~100
      • clears inside-day high around ~104.27 (or give room over ~105)
    • Macro event risk acknowledged (e.g., Middle East developments or cyber attack), but technicals keep it tradable in this setup

  • CAPRI / CPRI (retail brand group; likely CPRI) — short setup

    • Mentions brands: Jimmy Choo / Michael Kors
    • Plan:
      • if it gets a weekly close under ~52.50, risk about ~2.50
      • downside expectation: ~$5 move to ~47.50
      • if worse: ~44.45 (March lows referenced)

Commodities / Crypto / ETFs (weekly + daily triggers)

  • ANG (commodity; ticker unclear)

    • Consolidating; momentum decent but needs confirmation
    • Bullish continuation trigger:
      • two days close over ~10.87, or
      • close over the 200-day

  • Silver

    • Outperforming; momentum not yet as strong as desired but improving
    • Watching:
      • 50-day turning up
      • breaking more recent highs around ~25.50
    • Thesis: could have “bigger legs” similar to gold

  • COIN (Coinbase) — crypto

    • “Hammered”
    • Setup: reversal pattern with new 60+ day low, inside day, breakout next day
    • Levels/rules:
      • hold zone ~257–260
      • then reclaim ~267
      • mentions no moving averages yet, using a ~250-level as reference

  • DBA (Invesco Agricultural ETF) — agriculture

    • Bullish, slow-positive 50W
    • If previously long: profit-taking referenced
    • Retracement/risk management:
      • potential retracement zone ~18, specifically ~17.70–18.00
      • conditional add logic: if it keeps holding above the 50-week, it supports the thesis
    • Short-term caution: “wouldn’t do very much” now; wait for correction toward ~18

Key Numbers & Explicit Time-Based Cautions

Weekly-close / next-week confirmation emphasis

  • Repeated advice: wait for weekly closes or next-week confirmation, rather than forcing entries immediately.
  • “Second week” confirmation appears in multiple contexts (e.g., ADBE).

Examples of downside levels / triggers mentioned

  • MO support: ~44.69
  • ADBE downside: ~350 if 50W fails for two weeks
  • AMZN short trigger: weekly close around ~33.50
  • BP: support/levels around ~25, probe ~27; 200W within $3–$4
  • Corn correction zone: ~1750 (conditional on slope changes)
  • Gold confirmation: weekly close over 50W + follow-through
  • ILF-like ETF: hold ~29, confirmation above ~30.10
  • South Africa ETF: possible ~46 selloff area and ~52.36 breakout extension
  • AMT retracement: ~237; strength reclaim ~245–247
  • DIS targets: ~178–179 (plus 200-day area)
  • TEVA: clear ~10.50; risk ~9.95 alternative
  • DDD lows to watch: ~17.47 / 17.23
  • Cyber/defense stock trigger: clear ~104.27–105 after holding ~100
  • CPRI-like short: weekly close under ~52.50; targets ~47.50 then ~44.45
  • Silver: break highs ~25.50; 50-day turning up
  • COIN: hold ~257–260, reclaim ~267, watch ~250 reference
  • DBA retracement zone: ~17.70–18.00 (around ~18)

Macro / risk-off cautions

  • “Consider macro,” and multiple references to avoiding chasing if conditions worsen.
  • Macro impacts were noted especially for commodities.

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles/summary.
  • Risk management cautions are repeatedly mentioned:
    • understand risk before shorting
    • wait for confirmation (often weekly)
    • be nimble (especially with probes)

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

  • Mish Schneider (host; “mrs market minute”)
  • StockCharts TV (platform/source mentioned)
  • MarketGauge (mentioned in author/website context)
  • Dave Keller (StockCharts.com video outro/host context)

Original video