"휴전선서 쏘면 부산까지?" 북한이 전술핵 깔고 숨겨둔 진짜 노림수 (김영희, 이세환 1부) | 작전본부

North Korea’s Activity Along the MDL

The program examines North Korea’s recent fortification work along the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) and its repeated crossings into the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The panel says North Korean personnel crossed the line more than 20 times in the previous month, exceeding the 17 incidents reported for the entire previous year.

Why North Korea Calls the South a Hostile State

Kim Young-hee argues that the designation is partly intended to strengthen domestic control. As North Korean youth consume South Korean media and adopt its language, styles, and attitudes, the regime may see this ideological change as a threat.

Kim also suggests that Pyongyang concluded reunification would be difficult and could result in North Korea being absorbed by the much wealthier South. Improved ties with Russia and China may have reinforced its confidence in standing apart.

Purpose of the Fortifications

According to Lee Se-hwan, North Korea has cleared vegetation near the line, laid mines, installed fences, and built roads, guard posts, and anti-tank barriers. He says the placement and orientation of the structures suggest a military purpose—particularly obstructing South Korean forces—rather than simply controlling civilians.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff reportedly estimate that much of the construction could be completed by 2028.

Disputed Boundary and Risk of Incidents

Many of the original armistice-era markers have disappeared; the UN Command has reportedly estimated that about 85% are gone. The speakers warn that differing understandings of the MDL could lead to repeated crossings and allow North Korea to establish facts on the ground.

A lawmaker has alleged that minefields and roads lie 10–15 metres south of the MDL in the 25th Division’s area. Three South Korean servicemembers were injured in an explosion while clearing a waterway. The cause had not been confirmed at the time of the discussion.

Lee suspects a North Korean mine may have been involved and warns that mines could make DMZ search operations more dangerous.

Possible Military Threat

Lee points to North Korea’s 600mm KN-25 multiple rocket launcher, which he says can travel roughly 380 kilometres on a low trajectory. He argues that systems deployed near the armistice line could reach Busan, a key port for incoming US reinforcements. The inability to distinguish conventional from nuclear-armed projectiles adds further uncertainty.

A coordinated salvo of rockets, missiles, and drones could also strain air defenses.

Possible Motives and Costs

Kim suggests the barriers may serve two purposes: preparing a defensive military position and preventing North Koreans from escaping across the DMZ. The speakers describe this as part of the regime’s effort to preserve stability.

A Ministry of National Defense estimate cited in the program puts construction along roughly 250 kilometres at about 2 trillion won (around US$1.37 billion). The panel notes that domestic materials and military labor could make the actual cost lower, while arguing that the resources could otherwise support ordinary people.

Response Concerns

Lee criticizes the military’s public description of its response as being “according to principles.” He asks what that meant in practice and whether the response adequately accounted for the danger to troops.

The video cuts off as the panel begins discussing North Korea’s intentions behind the mine-laying and MDL crossings.

Presenters and Contributors

• Kang Rye-won: Host
• Kim Young-hee: North Korea specialist
• Lee Se-hwan: Military expert