It’s Trying To Break Out (here are the next price targets)

Summary

Jason Pizzino sees the broader trend in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as upward, but says recent breakouts need stronger volume to confirm momentum. He believes the market has room to rise, while warning that event-related volatility and weak-volume advances could lead to faster pullbacks.

He sees no current evidence of an imminent crash, but says the market is much later in its cycle than it was after the 2008–09 low.

Markets and Macro

• S&P 500: The index moved above the watched 7,800–7,850 area and reached about 7,871, a cited 50% level. The next major reference range is 7,800–8,000. If price clears it convincingly, Pizzino’s upside targets are 8,500, followed by 8,800. He wants to see volume return to confirm the breakout.

He uses prior price clusters and historical ranges as resistance guides. 7,400–7,600 was a previous resistance zone before the index broke through. Higher highs and higher lows are constructive, but weak volume can make an advance vulnerable to a pullback.

• Nasdaq: The index has also reached new highs, but without convincing volume. Pizzino says the structure remains healthy unless a much larger correction undermines it. He compares the current pattern with the dot-com period, when several corrections of roughly 11%–14% occurred before a later peak and downturn. He emphasizes that a topping process can take months rather than arriving as one isolated event.

• Rates and bonds: The policy rate is described as around 4%, with about an 80% chance of a pause at the next meeting, roughly three weeks away. Two-year Treasury yields have pulled back from a late-September local high. Ten-year yields are gradually rising, while 30-year yields remain on an upward path, though less sharply.

Pizzino also cites a level of about 4.8% and says longer-term rate pressure could eventually force the Fed to raise rates. He notes ongoing 10- and 30-year bond auctions and cautions against following the crowd into bonds after losses from attempts to “buy the bottom.”

• Event-related volatility: Markets may remain cautious ahead of the midterm elections, the Fed decision, bond auctions, and energy-inventory reports. Pizzino expects these events may bring volatility, but says they do not by themselves overturn the broader market structure.

• Sectors: Homebuilders are struggling, while technology, AI, and semiconductors are comparatively strong. Pizzino recommends assessing the cycle stage and trading volume in the specific sectors being considered.

• Oil: Crude is around $90, down from $106 and back near $87 after its pullback. Resistance is cited at $93 and $96. Without stronger-than-average volume, he sees the rebound as vulnerable to failure, with further declines or consolidation possible. He says weaker-than-forecast energy inventories could support oil and natural gas prices; the inventory figures in the subtitles are unclear.

• Gold and silver: Gold was rejected around $4,800 and later fell about 4%, breaking below $4,315. It needs to recover roughly $4,300 to improve the setup. Pizzino would be more encouraged by a monthly close above $4,800 on increased volume.

He says falling volume and heavier volume on down days currently indicate greater selling pressure. He uses historical gold consolidations—including one example of roughly 16 months—to illustrate that breakouts can take many months. A failed breakout could mean a prolonged wait for recovery. Silver is described as being in a similar position.

• US dollar: The dollar is approaching 103. Pizzino sees a possible lower high; a pullback from that area could ease pressure on gold and silver.

• Bitcoin: The cited breakout threshold is $87,400. Bitcoin remained below it in the update, so Pizzino says the breakout had not yet been confirmed.

Stocks and Instruments Mentioned

• MAGS / Magnificent Seven: Described as reaching new highs, with no clear signs of giving up their gains.
• NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN): Reported at or near new highs.
• Google/Alphabet (GOOGL): Holding above a cited 50% level.
• Meta Platforms (META): Recovered from a prior decline.
• Tesla (TSLA): Described as having gone largely sideways for about five years.
• AMD: At new historical highs.
• Intel (INTC): A critical level is cited around $112, with rising volume as it attempts to break a 50% level.
• Micron (MU): A lower high and sharply reduced volume suggest consolidation could continue. Pizzino is watching for higher lows around $900, with an initial target near $1,000.

Other assets discussed include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Treasury bonds (2-, 10-, and 30-year), crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, Bitcoin, and the US dollar.

Technical Framework and Cautions

• Look for higher highs and higher lows to assess whether the trend remains intact.
• Treat breakouts as more reliable when volume expands; weak-volume moves may be short-lived.
• Use price clusters, prior resistance ranges, and 50% retracement levels to identify potential resistance and targets.
• For gold, Pizzino emphasizes a monthly close above resistance with stronger volume as confirmation rather than assuming a breakout in advance.
• He cautions against shorting simply because markets are at all-time highs, and against following popular trades such as trying to buy a bond-market bottom.
• He advises having stop-losses and clear signals for gold and silver positions, and letting price action confirm the trend.

Disclosures and Sources

Pizzino says he is analyzing the situation and sharing his view; the subtitles contain no explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer. He also promotes a discounted lifetime membership to TIA Pro.

Presenter/source: Jason Pizzino, TIA Investor. Other referenced sources or indicators include FOMC meeting minutes and rate expectations, Treasury auctions and yields, energy-inventory reports, and the Fear & Greed Index.