Prof. Mohammad Marandi : Will Iran Let Israel Strike First?

Summary

Judge Andrew Napolitano interviewed Professor Mohammad Marandi about regional tensions and the possibility of a renewed US-Israeli attack on Iran.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen

Marandi argued that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces growing discontent within Saudi Arabia, including among tribes, the royal family, and ordinary people, because of the war in Yemen. He suggested the crown prince may be more concerned about internal opposition than Ansar Allah.

Napolitano noted that other commentators had predicted the possible collapse of bin Salman’s government, though not necessarily the Saudi state. Marandi also said public opinion in Pakistan and Egypt was strongly against those countries intervening.

Strait of Hormuz

Marandi disputed reports that oil traffic through the strait had increased. He said shipping and oil flows had fallen sharply, and that Iran was restricting passage for vessels connected to countries involved in the conflict. He characterized contrary reporting as potentially intended to reassure markets or support Trump.

Foreign support for Saudi Arabia

Asked about British aircraft deployed to protect Saudi Arabia, Marandi said Western powers were seeking financial benefits from Gulf states. He warned that foreign military support could further discredit governments in the region, particularly amid economic hardship and public opposition.

Iran, Israel, and the prospect of renewed war

Marandi said Iran’s armed forces were on maximum alert. He believed Netanyahu might want to attack Iran, particularly if facing electoral defeat, but doubted Trump wanted a war before the US election. He said an Israeli strike would likely require US support, including tanker aircraft and access to regional bases and airspace, potentially involving other countries in the conflict.

Netanyahu and Israel’s political future

Napolitano discussed polling that appeared to put Netanyahu’s political bloc behind one led by Gadi Eisenkot. Marandi argued that Netanyahu had severely damaged Israel’s international standing and that a successor might enable Western officials and media to blame Israel’s actions on him alone.

Marandi also challenged a retired Israeli general’s bleak account of Israel’s security outlook. He distinguished Zionism from Judaism and cited Jewish critics of Israel’s policies as advocates of human rights and equality.

Would Iran strike first?

Marandi said Iran had indicated it would respond if it believed an attack was imminent. He doubted Iran would initiate a new conflict, while allowing that it might act if it saw an attack underway.

He said Iran’s position did not depend on which US party held power, but on the implementation of an existing memorandum of understanding.

False-flag concerns

Napolitano raised warnings by Phil Giraldi about a possible attack blamed on Iran. Marandi said he considered such an operation a serious possibility, while emphasizing that he was speculating. He suggested that a major incident could be used to shift public opinion and justify escalation.

Presenters and contributors

• Judge Andrew Napolitano — host and interviewer
• Professor Mohammad Marandi — guest and commentator