Point de marché avec Nicolas Chéron | 3 Novembre 2026

Market Overview — 3 November 2026

Markets were experiencing sector and geographic rotation ahead of the US midterm elections. Investors had been taking profits in high-beta technology and AI shares and moving toward defensive stocks and previously neglected sectors, including pharmaceuticals, luxury goods, and alcohol. The presenter said the election outcome and US-Iran tensions could drive volatility later in the week.

Macro and Market Conditions

• US politics and geopolitics: The midterm elections were taking place on 3 November. The presenter viewed them as a potential source of volatility and uncertainty. Oil fell about 5% on Monday after President Trump suggested negotiations with Iran, then rose about 2% after US forces bombed an Iranian island.
• France: Economic weakness, budget concerns, strikes, and demonstrations had pushed the French 10-year OAT yield above 5%. It had eased to about 4.95%, helping the CAC 40 recover, though the presenter did not consider the tension resolved. The France-Germany yield spread had widened, reflecting concerns about France’s debt and political capacity to reform.
• Market breadth and sentiment: The share of stocks above their 50-period moving average had fallen to a very low level, even while some indices remained near highs. The Fear & Greed Index was around 25, indicating fear. The presenter said stronger rebound opportunities tend to occur closer to extreme fear, around 15.
• Short positioning: Short-ETF volumes on US indices had risen sharply. The presenter said crowded short positions could fuel a sharp rebound if election uncertainty eased or Iran tensions de-escalated, but described this as speculation.
• Regional performance: The CAC 40 had recovered from roughly 7,700 to 8,000. The Euro Stoxx 600 was about 2.5% below its all-time high. Mexico had a strong October and India was recovering, illustrating the rotation away from US technology.
• US indices: The S&P 500 was described as range-bound, with 7,500 an important level to hold. The Nasdaq had corrected around 8–10% in a few sessions, but the presenter said that, in a broader view, it was around summer levels rather than in a collapse. High-beta holdings can fall much more sharply than the index.
• Other indices: The DAX had moved back above roughly 25,000–25,200. The KOSPI had fallen about 40% from its earlier surge and was near 5,000–5,500, a key area for preserving its longer-term uptrend.

Assets and Strategy

Oil and Commodities

• Brent and WTI: Oil had rebounded to about $107 in mid-September and recently reached $105, below resistance. The presenter said oil was too expensive to buy but not high enough to short at current levels. He would consider a short if geopolitical escalation pushed it back to $110–115, or possibly $115–120; otherwise, he would wait.
• Gold: Gold was around $3,900–4,000, after a major run-up—more than doubling, and nearly tripling, between January 2024 and January 2026. The presenter expected a potentially lengthy consolidation. He said he would resume long-term dollar-cost averaging around $3,500 and $3,000, or consider buying if gold broke above roughly $4,100–4,200. He described $3,000 as a hopeful rather than certain level.
• Silver: The presenter cautioned against chasing rapid price surges, citing earlier episodes in which silver rose sharply and then fell substantially: $5 to $40, then $7 in 1979–80, and $10 to $50, then $15 in 2008. He said there was no current buy signal and would look for either a strong reaction near $50 or lower prices around $40. He was open to accumulating between $30 and $50 over as long as five years, while warning that another multi-year trading range was possible.
• Copper: Described in response to a viewer as a strongly bullish metal, alongside gold and silver.
• Agricultural commodities: The presenter said he generally avoids trading wheat, cocoa, and coffee for ethical reasons, as price bets can depend on crop disease, conflict, famine, or other hardship.

Bitcoin and Crypto

• Bitcoin: After rising from about $60,000 in mid-August to $88,000, Bitcoin had pulled back to around $75,000–76,000. The presenter viewed this as a normal retracement. Below $75,000, a broader $60,000–75,000 range would become more likely. Potential DCA levels mentioned were $70,000, $65,000, $60,000, and possibly $50,000. Reclaiming $80,000 would be constructive.
• One research chart cited in the presentation estimated that Bitcoin represented 0.2% of global assets and money in circulation, and that a 1% share could imply a price of $368,000. The presenter framed this as a hypothetical, not a forecast.
• Portfolio risk: The presenter said he personally held a limited amount of Bitcoin and urged investors to decide what proportion of their portfolio they could afford to lose.
• Binance and cyber risk: The presenter cited reports alleging that North Korean hackers had stolen more than $6 billion in crypto-related attacks, and discussed the rising cybersecurity risks associated with AI and software vulnerabilities.
• Capital B: Described as a highly speculative French Bitcoin-treasury stock. The presenter said he bought it at €5.11 in mid-September and that it remained about 15% higher despite Bitcoin’s pullback, while still roughly 5% below resistance. He warned it was not suitable for everyone.

Stocks and Sectors Discussed

French and European Shares

• Luxury and alcohol: The presenter saw signs of a rebound in neglected names. LVMH had risen from around €380 toward €400; a break above €400 could open a move toward €425, with resistance around €440. He favored LVMH over Hermès for a possible short-term luxury-sector catch-up, while noting that he had historically preferred Hermès as a business.
• EssilorLuxottica: Up more than 22% over 10 sessions after strong results. The presenter described it as a notable recovery from long-term support.
• Pernod Ricard and Rémy Cointreau: Part of the alcohol-sector rebound. Pernod Ricard was approaching resistance around €70–71; the presenter said it was not yet clearly bullish and that he would watch for a breakout.
• Defensive/pharma: Sanofi had rebounded about 15% over the past month. It had briefly broken below support near €72 and then moved back into its range—a technical “bear trap” or “oops” setup. The presenter said the rebound had already reached resistance near €82, making a new entry less attractive to him at that point.
• Eurofins Scientific: Presented as an example of a bearish-to-bullish transition: it recovered from long-term support, broke successive resistance levels, and then retested former resistance as support.
• Sartorius: A similar but less advanced setup. A break above about €240 could signal a move toward €300, though the presenter noted the stock remained range-bound.
• Veolia: A long-term uptrend had pulled back to support and rebounded. The presenter recommended following the decline until a clear reversal signal rather than assuming the low in advance.
• L’Oréal and Air Liquide: Cited as stronger French names. L’Oréal had risen after very good results, and Air Liquide was at historic highs.
• Danone: Mentioned as another recovering defensive stock.
• Alstom: Had lowered guidance. The presenter said he had not yet reviewed the details and would wait to see how the market reacted.
• Saint-Gobain: Its chart resembled Sanofi’s “oops” pattern, but the presenter said French election uncertainty could weigh on it over the medium to long term.
• Schneider Electric: A viewer asked about it; the presenter said he might comment on it separately.

French Small Caps and Higher-Risk Shares

• CRSI (company name unclear in the subtitles): The presenter warned about unaudited accounts and loss of investor trust, comparing the risk to Solution 30 rather than assuming the stock would recover. He emphasized that even a reported $60 million contract would not by itself resolve concerns about the accounts. His main lesson was to avoid situations with high, asymmetric downside and uncertain information.
• VusionGroup: Neutral until it breaks resistance near €150. The presenter said he would use a stop below support if entering on a breakout and exit if the breakout failed.
• Vetoquinol: A long-term support area was identified around €65–70, with a broader €65–91 range. A return to support or a breakout above resistance could provide a clearer setup.
• Mincell (name as transcribed; exact company unclear): Described as a highly speculative biotech. €20–22 was identified as a major support/accumulation area; the presenter viewed the stock more positively above €25, while warning that bad biotech news can cause losses of 50%.
• bioMérieux: Good figures had helped the stock break out of a prior range; the presenter described its chart as bullish.
• Wavestone: Still below its 200-day moving average and therefore bearish in the medium term, though the presenter called it a good long-term company. He noted that investors who bought around €30–31 might give the setup time.
• ID Logistics: The presenter cited long-term support around €300–310 and a roughly 20% rise since the support discussion in September. He said a move below €355 could increase the chance of filling a gap near €340; a break above about €377 would reduce that concern.

US Shares

• Costco: The presenter highlighted a strong long-term uptrend and a rebound from a support zone around $900.
• Mastercard and Visa: Both were described as long-term uptrends with repeated breakouts and pullbacks to former resistance. Mastercard had broken above $600 and retested support.
• Eli Lilly: Strong results and an upward guidance revision supported its bullish trend; the presenter contrasted its performance with Novo Nordisk.
• Novo Nordisk: The presenter said it had been objectively weaker than Lilly but was showing a base-building pattern. He was not outright bearish and said a breakout would be needed to confirm improvement.
• Apple: Had broken a trendline. The presenter said a further correction of around 10% was possible and identified approximately $310 as a potential dip-buying area.
• Intel: The stock had risen sharply after US government support, but the presenter identified a potentially bearish island reversal pattern. Reclaiming $70 could invalidate the signal; otherwise, a decline toward $40–50 would not be surprising.
• Micron and SanDisk: High-volatility semiconductor/AI names needed to hold key support. For Micron, the presenter highlighted $750 and the 200-day moving average; a break below support could indicate a worsening trend.
• Uber: Approaching a major support range around $60–66, after falling from around $100. The presenter noted that some investors might buy near support while others would wait for lower prices.
• Nvidia: The presenter said its chart broadly tracked the Nasdaq and identified $190 as major support.
• Take-Two Interactive: The stock had fallen about 30% amid impatience over GTA 6. It had returned to a support area; the presenter said those considering the stock ahead of the game release should recognize the risk.
• Marvell (rendered “Marvel” in the subtitles): The presenter attributed weakness partly to a share-funded acquisition and the Nasdaq sell-off, and highlighted a potential support zone near $160.
• Nebius: Cited as an example of a large prior gain, from about $20 to $160–180 over roughly 18 months—around 8×.
• SanDisk, Micron, and other AI-related stocks: Among the high-beta winners that had recently faced profit-taking.

Technical Framework and Risk Management

The presenter’s recurring chart-based approach was to:

• Zoom out to distinguish a normal pullback from a breakdown, and consider multiple timeframes.
• Identify long-term support, resistance, and trading ranges before acting.
• Look for a transition from bearish to neutral to bullish: a base forms, resistance breaks, and former resistance holds as support.
• Treat a break below support followed by a quick return into the range as a possible bear trap or “oops” setup—but recognize that it does not guarantee a rebound.
• Prefer either buying near well-defined support or waiting for a confirmed breakout; avoid chasing a price after it has already reached resistance.
• Use stop levels and raise them as price breaks successive technical targets. A failed breakout can still produce a loss.
• Diversify across asset classes, sectors, and geographies, rather than concentrating a portfolio in high-beta technology, AI, or other volatile stocks.
• Be especially cautious when company accounts are unaudited, management credibility is questioned, or downside risk is difficult to quantify.

Disclosures and Sources

The presenter stated that the charts, figures, and opinions were for informational and educational purposes only, did not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell financial products, and were not investment advice. He also stressed that speculative assets—including Bitcoin-treasury stocks, biotech, and high-beta technology shares—can carry substantial risk.

Presenter: Nicolas Chéron Sources mentioned: Rand Group Research (Bitcoin ownership/share chart); IG Markets (retail CFD buyer/seller sentiment).