Summary of "Neues Jahr neue Lows bei Bitcoin - Certified Elliott Wave Analyst"

Summary

The video provides a technical Elliott Wave analysis update on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for the new year, focusing on expected price movements, wave counts, and trading strategy.

Assets & Instruments Mentioned

Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
Chainlink (LINK)
Solana (SOL)
Futures (implied BTC futures premium)

Market & Technical Analysis Highlights

Bitcoin (BTC)

Current wave count suggests Bitcoin is in Wave 4, which has lasted significantly longer than Wave 2 (over four times as long).
The analyst accepts a WXY corrective pattern has likely finished, with a possible small upward move (~45 points or percent not specified) still possible but overall remains bearish on the bigger picture.
The prime target for Wave 4 aligns with the medium line and Fibonacci targets from Wave 3.
A Wave 5 sell-off is expected next, potentially aggressive, similar to previous patterns.
The analyst is short BTC, a position held prior to the update.
Futures premium remains positive, meaning shorts are paid to hold, supporting the decision to stay short longer.
A critical resistance zone (referred to as the “Prime Box”) should not be exceeded; specifically, the analyst warns against BTC going above 100,000 (likely a typo or hyperbole, possibly 10,000 or 20,000), as that would invalidate the current wave count and approach Fibonacci golden ratio levels.
BTC is still trading inside a gap and must not break above certain resistance levels to maintain the bearish count.
The analyst expects a potential 7-9 wave sequence or a 6-wave pattern before reaching the first buying zone again.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH shows a similar corrective pattern but possibly a WXY with ABC in X formation.
The prime support zone is around 1600.
No bullish momentum is visible; ETH is stuck at resistance.
A significant liquidity build-up is needed before a meaningful breakout, with a possible resistance level at 2500 aligning with a larger WXY pattern.

Altcoins

Chainlink (LINK): The analyst has mostly sold out of LINK positions due to lack of bullish setups on larger timeframes, despite still considering it a good idea long-term.
Solana (SOL): Behavior is as expected; the B-wave series is completed, and selling pressure is ongoing. No changes to the outlook.

Methodology / Framework

Use of Certified Elliott Wave analysis to identify wave counts (WXY, ABC, 123 patterns).
Monitoring of key Fibonacci levels and wave targets to validate counts.
Use of futures premium as a sentiment and risk management indicator (positive premium supports holding shorts).
Live updates and charting available on the presenter’s Discord server (free access).

Key Numbers & Timelines

Wave 4 duration: over four times Wave 2 duration.
BTC resistance level not to exceed: ~100,000 (likely an error, but stated explicitly).
ETH prime support zone: ~1600.
ETH resistance level: ~2500.
No specific dates given; focus is on short-term to medium-term (days to weeks).

Recommendations & Cautions

Avoid trading Bitcoin during low volatility periods such as New Year’s; volatility is typically “dead” and trading is not advised.
Remain short on Bitcoin based on wave counts and futures premium.
No bullish setups currently for LINK or SOL; cautious or reduced exposure recommended.
Watch for invalidation if BTC breaks above the prime resistance box.

Disclosures

The presenter explicitly states the content is based on personal analysis and trading. Access to live updates and counts is free via Discord. No explicit financial advice disclaimer stated, but the tone implies personal opinion and caution.

Presenter

Certified Elliott Wave Analyst (name not provided in subtitles).

Overall Summary

The video delivers a detailed Elliott Wave technical analysis of Bitcoin and select altcoins, emphasizing a bearish outlook on BTC with expected further downside after a prolonged Wave 4 correction. Futures premium supports maintaining short positions. ETH and altcoins show no bullish momentum currently. The presenter offers free live updates on Discord.