Trading against the Trend | Trading in the Zone | Episode: 14

Overview

The episode explains a rules-based trading approach for trading against a broader trend (e.g., a downtrend) only after confirmation. It uses multi-timeframe “demand/supply zones” across higher timeframes (monthly/quarterly/weekly/daily) and even intraday (e.g., 125-minute) execution logic.

The central goal is to avoid low-RR “wide range” trades and instead focus on narrow-range execution setups with higher accuracy.

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Instruments / Tickers Mentioned

• Coal India (discussed with monthly/quarterly demand zones)
• TVS Motor
• Tata Motors
• Maruti Suzuki (mentioned as an example)
• Federal Bank (example)
• IDFC First Bank (portfolio/investing anecdotes)
• Godrej Properties
• Tata Steel (COVID-era price references)

Note: No ETFs, bonds, commodities, or FX tickers were clearly specified. The rest appears mostly as chart-level examples without naming broader market context (e.g., “Nifty/market” not explicitly named).

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Key Concepts & Methodology (Step-by-Step)

A) Core idea: “Trading against the trend with confirmation entry”

• Do not trade the monthly/quarterly demand zone just because price “hits” it.
• Instead:
  • Wait for price to enter the higher-timeframe demand zone.
  • Then switch to a lower timeframe—especially daily—to find a new execution entry with confirmation.
• Confirmation is based on supply-zone behavior (supply must break/hold), not merely demand being touched.

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B) Multi-timeframe zone hierarchy

Higher-timeframe zones are marked for context:

• Monthly demand zone (and/or quarterly demand zone)
• Also reference weekly supply/demand

Execution emphasizes:

• Higher timeframe for locating zone strength
• Daily timeframe for entry execution (better precision and narrower RR risk)

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C) Confirmation entry logic (as described)

When price reaches a higher-timeframe demand zone:

1. Identify the nearest supply zone on the daily chart.
2. Require that price breaks the nearest supply zone and closes above it (a sustained close).
3. After the supply break:
   • Place entry in the demand zone region on the daily chart (narrow execution area)
   • Place stop-loss (SL) below the formed base / below the relevant zone structure

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D) “Narrow range execution” vs “wide range trade”

The presenter argues that wide-zone entries tend to cause:

• poor or slow targets,
• lower certainty,
• worse RR efficiency

So the approach is to:

• shrink the execution window into a smaller post-confirmation range
• align targets with nearby known supply levels

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E) Zone quality rules (base / leg-in / leg-out)

A “complete” zone should ideally have:

• leg-in
• base
• leg-out

However, it can still be used when the base is minimal/fast, as long as price action clearly shows a fight/response.

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Key Numbers & Explicit Performance / RR Claims

Subtitles are described as noisy, so not all values are fully reliable. Still, several quantitative claims appear:

• Accuracy target: presenter claims accuracy can reach “plus 90” (interpreted as >90% in their system’s terms).
• Risk:Reward framework: mentions setups requiring 2:1 targets.

Examples referenced (final targets not always preserved cleanly in subtitles):

• Coal India: mentions demand zone and rallies, but no clear final numeric target retained.
• TVS Motor: includes multiple option-related references (strike/expiry/price points). A target such as 420 is mentioned as completed, but the exact option type mapping is unclear due to subtitle corruption.
• Tata Motors: discusses price levels and an example target 400 being reached/updated.

Options caution (explicit):

• Option premiums can decay quickly.
• Waiting too long after confirmation can cause the premium to fall toward zero, making options unattractive.

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Explicit Recommendations / Cautions (Risk & Execution)

• Do not trade monthly/quarterly zones blindly—use confirmation entry.
• Do not “catch falling knife” (i.e., don’t enter on the first touch without required zone/supply-break behavior).
• Never enter without confirmation when rules are not met.
• If uncertain which supply zone qualifies:
  • prioritize the nearest/strongest logical one,
  • but default logic remains: entry depends on confirmation/supply break.
• Options risk management:
  • Avoid buying options immediately just because price bounced from a proximal line.
  • Presenter recommends equity/cash focus and warns against aggressive options during uncertainty.
• Position sizing / disclaimer:
  • Risk management is individualized.
  • Mentions starting with ~0.5% risk per trade during learning phase.
• No guarantee:
  • Despite confidence, presenter repeatedly stresses there is no absolute guarantee and disciplined execution is required.

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Disclaimers / Disclosures Mentioned

• The episode includes an implicit “not financial advice”-style reminder via teaching language (e.g., “I cannot recommend…”), but
• a clear, explicit legal disclaimer phrase like “not financial advice” does not appear to be stated verbatim in the subtitles.
• The presenter emphasizes this is a teaching method, not a guarantee of outcomes.

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Presenters / Sources

• Described as a single presenter/teacher, though the name is not clearly stated in the subtitles.
• End-of-episode viewer-style messages include names such as Gaurav, Pradeep, Mustafa, Chetan, Praful, Pramod, Tarun, Gaurav Pradeep, etc., but these appear to be participants in chat/Q&A, not formal research sources.
• No external market research firm or named publication is cited.