What Sentence Would You Give?: Watch for the Anchoring Bias

Summary

The video explains how anchoring bias can affect even trained decision-makers and potentially lead to unequal outcomes in criminal sentencing.

The study

Psychologists Birte Englich and Thomas Mussweiler gave 19 judges the same information about a felony case, including the crime details, testimony, and relevant law. The only difference was the prosecutor’s recommended sentence:

• Judges who saw a recommendation of 2 months proposed an average sentence of 19 months.
• Judges who saw a recommendation of 34 months proposed an average sentence of 29 months.

Testing whether the source mattered

The researchers repeated the setup with recommendations attributed to a college freshman and with high or low numbers generated by secretly rigged dice. Higher numbers still led to higher proposed sentences, suggesting the effect was not simply due to judges trusting an expert prosecutor.

What anchoring bias is

Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky named the tendency to rely too heavily on information encountered earlier or most recently when making a decision anchoring bias. The initial number acts like an anchor, pulling later judgments toward it.

Where it can matter

The video says anchoring has also been found to influence real estate valuations, medical diagnoses, and consumer decisions involving products and investments.

Ways to reduce its influence

• Consult multiple sources rather than relying on one initial figure. Compare information across cases, markets, or companies to establish a more reasonable range.
• Actively reject an inappropriate anchor when time is limited. Daniel Kahneman’s suggested tactic is to “make a scene”—for example, visibly dismiss the number or say you will not consider it—to help clear it from your thinking.

Main lesson

We remain vulnerable to anchors, but recognizing their influence and deliberately countering them can lessen their effect.

Speakers and sources featured

• Narrator — Presents the study and explains anchoring bias. The video metadata identifies the narrator as Olivia Kang.
• TV anchor — Asks why, if both people admit to wrongdoing, only one is going to jail. The individual is not identified in the subtitles.
• Birte Englich and Thomas Mussweiler — Psychologists whose study of judges is described.
• Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky — Psychologists credited with naming anchoring bias.
• Daniel Kahneman — Source of the quoted negotiation tip, “Make a scene.”