October Is Here.. What Usually Happens to Stocks

Finance-focused summary (Oct effects + what to watch in 2026)

Tickers / indices / instruments mentioned

• S&P 500 Index (referred to throughout)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average / Dow (DJIA)
• Nasdaq
• Russell 2000
• Treasury yields / Treasury (macro input; no specific ticker mentioned)
• Oil (commodity; no ticker mentioned)
• Crypto via sponsor: crypto ETPs (no specific ETP tickers mentioned)

Key points & numbers (historical seasonality / election-cycle context)

“Octoberphobia” (why people fear October)

The summary references several famous market drawdowns:

• 1929 crash: occurred in October
• Black Monday (1987):
  • Dow fell 22.6% in one day (Oct 19, 1987)
  • S&P 500 lost about 21.8% during October 1987
• October 2008 (Global Financial Crisis):
  • Dow lost about 18.2% in the week ending Oct 10, 2008

What history says about October performance

Using S&P 500 data since 1950:

• October has historically averaged about +0.8% to +0.9% (depending on the measurement window)

Strength in more recent decades:

• 2004–2024 (21 years): October ranked 5th best month for the S&P 500
• Average October gains across major indices (2004–2024):
  • Russell 2000: about +0.3%
  • Dow & Nasdaq: about +1.1%

How October trades intramonth (volatility pattern):

• Markets often look weak early in the month, improving after roughly the 7th–8th trading day

“Bear market killer” claim:

• Stock Trader Almanac describes October as the “bear market killer”
• After WWII: 13 bear markets reportedly turned around in October (as of 2022, per the note)
• Some October lows occurred in midterm election years

Midterm election year effects (2026 relevance)

Historical comparisons for the S&P 500 in October (1950–2017):

• Midterm election years: about +3.3%
• Post-election years: about +1.0%
• Pre-election years: about +0.1%
• Presidential election years: about -0.7%

Additional averages mentioned for midterm election years:

• Dow: about +3.1%
• S&P 500: about +3.3%
• Nasdaq: about +4.2%
• Russell 2000: about +3.9%

October → November/December continuation

October is described as ending the market’s “worst six months” (per Stock Trader Almanac).

From the S&P 500 since 1957:

• From the October low to Dec 31, the market rose about 93% of the time
• Average increase from the October low to year-end: about +7.4%

Important caution about this statistic:

• It’s based on the October minimum (not necessarily every day in October or specifically from October 1)

Explicit recommendations / cautions (how to use the data)

• Not a guarantee that October 2026 will be up.
• The summary warns against using seasonal data as a blanket trading signal (e.g., “buy everything”).

It notes that markets can be dominated by macro, earnings, and policy drivers that may override seasonality, including:

• interest rates / Treasury yields
• inflation
• oil
• corporate earnings
• economic growth
• uncertainty from midterm elections

Guidance for investors facing possible volatility:

• Don’t automatically panic just because it’s October.
• Monitor:
  • fundamentals
  • inflation
  • Treasury yields
  • oil
  • earnings
• If weakness occurs, it may create better opportunities for long-term investors.

Portfolio-level takeaway:

• Build a portfolio designed for resilience/security regardless of market moves.
• Mentions the market “looks overvalued” and suggests a correction could be possible—so portfolio construction matters.

No detailed step-by-step investing framework provided

• The summary notes the video references an “8-week live course” and a “three-fund portfolio,” but the provided subtitles do not include the actual allocation percentages or the step-by-step methodology.

Disclosures / disclaimers

• “This is not financial advice”
• “I am not a financial advisor”
• Sponsor disclosure (crypto ETP provider) includes:
  • “21Shares products may not be available to all investors”
  • “subject to the laws of your jurisdiction”
  • “This is not financial advice. All investments carry risks. Please consult a licensed financial advisor…”

Presenter(s) / sources mentioned

• Nolan Govea (“Professor Ji”)
• 21 Shares (video sponsor)
• Stock Trader Almanac (source of claims such as “bear market killer” and “worst six months”)