Zelensky Exits Kiev Prior Big Russian Strike All Ukraine Missile Projects Ended; Putin Hardens Line

Overview

Alexander Mercouris contrasts Vladimir Putin’s meeting with African leaders in Moscow—which he presents as evidence of Russia’s diplomatic and economic confidence—with Volodymyr Zelensky’s visits to the Netherlands and Britain to seek further support. Mercouris suggests Zelensky’s travel may also be related to expectations of a major Russian missile-and-drone strike, though the anticipated large-scale attack had not yet occurred at the time of recording.

Ukrainian weapons programs

FirePoint reportedly cancelled several weapons programs. The company said the Flamingo cruise missile was too expensive relative to its effectiveness. Mercouris agrees that it had limited success and that Russian air defenses intercepted most of the missiles, but notes that those reaching their targets could cause substantial damage. He disputes the company’s cost-based explanation for ending the program, speculating instead that Russian strikes destroyed or disrupted production facilities and supply sites. He also suggests the project may have benefited from European funding despite its shortcomings.

FirePoint reportedly said the FP-7 and FP-9 missile programs were uneconomical and had been cancelled. Mercouris doubts the two designations represented separate, mature ballistic-missile projects. He speculates that Ukraine had one ballistic-missile effort, possibly based on the S-300, which Russian attacks made unviable. He further proposes that one designation may have referred to a cruise missile Ukraine hoped to obtain from Germany.

Mercouris argues that the reported cancellations leave Ukraine’s long-range offensive increasingly dependent on drones, while Russia continues to develop counter-drone measures.

He also discusses Freya, a Ukrainian air-defense project reportedly delayed because Western partners had not completed their part of the work. Mercouris doubts it will be available soon or prove effective, describing it as a difficult combination of Soviet-derived and Western components. In his assessment, Ukraine faces gaps in both long-range strike systems and air defense.

Battlefield developments

Mercouris says Russian advances may be accelerating despite autumn weather. Citing reports from Rybar, he describes Ukrainian defenses north of Orikhiv as having weakened, potentially allowing Russian forces to isolate Ukrainian troops in the area.

He also reports fighting around Bilozerske and Druzhkivka, continued Russian pressure near Lyman, and disputed claims about fighting near Barylivka in Sumy region. He describes Russian troop movements around Oleshky and Kakhovka as possibly preparatory, while acknowledging that their purpose is unclear.

Infrastructure strikes

Mercouris expects Russian attacks to continue targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, particularly electrical substations, and considers the Dnieper bridges another possible focus. Discussing recent strikes, he suggests Russia may be testing ways to attack bridges and praises the apparent accuracy of an Iskander strike on Kyiv’s Southern Bridge. He speculates, without claiming certainty, that satellite-related guidance could be involved.

Diplomacy and possible Russian demands

Mercouris says Norway’s prime minister rejected a Financial Times account that Putin’s call with the leaders of Finland and Norway consisted mainly of a lengthy historical lecture. He interprets Finnish President Alexander Stubb’s participation as a possible attempt to position himself as Europe’s representative in negotiations.

According to Mercouris, Russian official Yuri Ushakov said Europeans were not invited to talks in Abu Dhabi and had no proposals to contribute.

The episode’s central diplomatic concern is the Kremlin’s statement that a lasting peace requires Russia’s interests to be taken into account “in full and without any conditions.” Mercouris argues that this wording may signal a tougher Russian position than the “Istanbul Plus” terms he discusses. He raises the possibility that Russia could eventually demand something approaching Ukraine’s unconditional surrender.

Mercouris cites analyst Gordon Hahn’s view that Russian demands could expand if battlefield gains continue—for example, to include additional territory and a rejection of Ukraine’s NATO membership. He presents this escalation as a possibility, not a confirmed Russian policy.

Presenters and contributors

• Presenter: Alexander Mercouris
• Commentators or sources discussed: Rybar, Simplicius the Thinker, Gordon Hahn, and Matthew Parris
• Guests appearing in the subtitles: None identified