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Marc Faber on What's to Come in 2026 | Marc Faber and Jimmy Connor

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Finance

Summary of Finance-Specific Content from “Marc Faber on What’s to Come in 2026”

Market Performance & Asset Classes (2025 Recap)

  • 2025 returns:
    • S&P 500: +16%
    • Nasdaq: +20%
    • Gold: +60%
    • Silver: +140%
    • Canadian stock market: +30%
  • Emerging Markets ETF (EM) up close to 40%, with some emerging markets up 50%.
  • China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand stocks underperformed but are expected to rebound in 2026.
  • The strong rise in precious metals was somewhat surprising but had been predicted by Marc Faber over the years.

Macroeconomic Context & Inflation

  • U.S. economy officially growing around 3%, with some forecasts (e.g., Scott Bent) suggesting 4-5% growth in 2026.
  • Unemployment in December 2025 at 4.4%, down from 4.6%.

  • Marc Faber is skeptical of official U.S. economic data, arguing:

    • Inflation is understated (official ~3%, real closer to 5-12%).
    • Real incomes for middle-class workers are declining as inflation outpaces wage growth.
    • GDP growth figures are misleading due to how inflation and cost of living are calculated (referencing John Williams’ alternative inflation estimates at ~10%).

  • U.S. money supply (M2) increased by 42%, from $15.4 trillion (Jan 2020) to over $22 trillion (2025).

  • Inflation is broad-based: coffee +30%, ground beef +20%, bananas +10% year-over-year.
  • Inflation is uneven across sectors, causing economic distortions.
  • Wealth inequality has increased, with financial sectors and asset owners benefiting most from money printing.

Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

  • The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates in early 2026 (meetings in January and March).
  • The Fed controls short-term rates (Fed funds rate), but long-term bond yields have risen despite rate cuts, reflecting inflation concerns.
  • Possible bond market scenarios:
    • Yields fall sharply if recession fears dominate (bond prices rise).
    • Yields rise if inflation persists alongside rate cuts (bond prices fall).
  • U.S. bonds are currently reasonably priced compared to Swiss bonds (Swiss 10-year yields under 0.5%).
  • Fed policies are criticized for fueling government spending bubbles and social subsidies, which are seen as economically harmful.

Currency & Commodities

  • The U.S. dollar declined about 10% year-over-year and is expected to continue weakening.
  • Dollar weakness is mostly against gold, silver, and platinum rather than major fiat currencies.
  • Gold and silver are viewed as strong stores of value amid inflation and money printing.
  • Oil prices are considered very cheap when measured against gold.
  • Thailand’s currency appreciated 10% against the U.S. dollar in 2025 despite being labeled a “failed state” by some economists.

Investing & Portfolio Strategy

Marc Faber’s key investment advice includes:

  • Stay long gold, silver, platinum, and other tangible assets such as art, diamonds, and collectibles.
  • Avoid holding too much cash or bonds in high inflation environments.
  • Diversify globally—hold assets in multiple countries (e.g., Brazil, Argentina, China) to mitigate geopolitical and economic risks.
  • Prepare for possible deflationary scenarios in asset prices (stocks, real estate).
  • Focus on strategies aimed at minimizing losses during downturns rather than assuming perpetual price increases.
  • Be skeptical of consensus bullish forecasts for 2026 stock market gains; Faber predicts possible declines in real terms.
  • Real estate is no longer a guaranteed appreciating asset; some commercial properties have declined by as much as 80%.
  • Inflation impacts asset prices differently; rising home prices and stocks are symptoms of inflation, not purely economic growth.

Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Risks

  • Ongoing conflicts include the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East hostilities, Venezuela instability, and potential U.S. military action in Mexico.
  • U.S. foreign policy and military interventions are viewed as destabilizing and damaging to global peace and U.S. prestige.
  • China’s rapid rise in science, technology, and higher education is notable and unexpected; Chinese universities dominate global STEM rankings.
  • Free market capitalism is credited historically for industrial revolutions and rising living standards; socialism and heavy state intervention are criticized.
  • Europe’s limited military response capability to U.S. actions, such as a potential Greenland intervention, is highlighted.
  • BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) represent a powerful bloc with 85% of the world’s population and significant economic and military power.

Key Numbers & Metrics

  • S&P 500 at an all-time high of 7,000 (late 2025).
  • U.S. M2 money supply: $15.4 trillion (2020) → $22 trillion+ (2025).
  • Real inflation estimate: 5-12% (vs official ~3%).
  • Unemployment: 4.4% (December 2025).
  • Precious metals returns (2025): Gold +60%, Silver +140%.
  • Emerging Markets ETF (EM) +40% (2025).
  • Thai currency +10% vs USD (2025).
  • U.S. 10-year bond yields around 4%.

Methodology / Framework Shared

  • Evaluate inflation using historical CPI methodologies (e.g., 1970s method) to obtain more accurate real inflation figures.
  • Assess GDP and economic growth in real terms, adjusting for understated inflation.
  • Diversify asset allocation across multiple countries and asset classes to reduce concentration risk.
  • Prepare psychologically and strategically for potential asset price deflation, not just inflation-driven appreciation.
  • Monitor bond market signals for recession or inflation risk (bond yields rising or falling).
  • Use precious metals and tangible assets as inflation hedges and stores of value.
  • Critically question official statistics and government narratives, especially regarding inflation and economic growth.

Explicit Recommendations / Cautions

  • Stay long precious metals (gold, silver, platinum) and other tangible assets.
  • Avoid overreliance on cash and bonds in inflationary environments.
  • Diversify globally to hedge against geopolitical and economic shocks.
  • Be skeptical of official inflation and GDP data; real inflation and economic conditions are worse than reported.
  • Prepare for the possibility that asset prices may decline in real terms despite nominal increases.
  • Criticize and be wary of political and academic interference in markets and economics.
  • Recognize that wealth concentration benefits asset owners disproportionately under current monetary policies.
  • Avoid political risk by “selling short” politicians and academics who promote interventionist policies.

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • Marc Faber is a participant in financial markets and benefits from monetary policies but criticizes them as an economist and historian.
  • Views expressed are personal and critical of mainstream economic narratives and policies.
  • Not explicitly stated as financial advice but clearly framed as personal opinions and observations.

Presenters / Sources

  • Marc Faber – Economist, investor, author, known for contrarian views.
  • Jimmy Connor – Interviewer / host.

Additional Information

For further details, visit: gloomboomdoom.com

Summary

Marc Faber provides a cautious and contrarian outlook for 2026, emphasizing that official economic data understate inflation and overstate growth. He highlights the risks of inflation, monetary expansion, and geopolitical instability, while recommending long positions in precious metals and tangible assets. He warns of a potential deflationary environment in asset prices and stresses the importance of global diversification and skepticism toward mainstream economic and political narratives.

Original video