Ex-CIA Officer: Netanyahu Keeps Power - Israeli Election Makes Iran War MORE Likely | John Kiriakou

Summary

Israeli politics and Iran

Former CIA officer John Kiriakou argued that Israel’s inconclusive election could prolong Benjamin Netanyahu’s time in office and increase the risk of renewed conflict with Iran. He said Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister until a governing coalition is formed and predicted that repeated elections could follow.

Kiriakou said Netanyahu had a personal incentive to remain in office because he faces criminal charges. He also criticized rival Gadi Eisenkot’s refusal to partner with Arab parties. These were Kiriakou’s assessments of Israeli politics and the politicians’ motives.

Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and Iran

Kiriakou cited reports that Saudi Arabia had sent a delegation and $1 billion to Iran to seek an end to Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, following what he described as a similar payment from the United Arab Emirates. He viewed such payments as a pragmatic way to protect infrastructure and suggested the money could also support Yemen’s development.

Prospects for a U.S.–Iran conflict

Kiriakou doubted that the United States could achieve a decisive victory in a war with Iran. He argued that Iran could prevail simply by surviving, while the U.S. objective of overthrowing the Iranian government and installing a pro-Western one was unrealistic. He also said U.S. military action had united Iran’s internal factions around its leadership.

Discussing a reported message from Vice President JD Vance to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard leadership, Kiriakou interpreted it as a demand for Iran to surrender and predicted it would not work. He suggested Iran could wait out Trump, whom he characterized as a lame-duck president.

Kiriakou said Trump may have been persuaded by Netanyahu that Iran’s government would collapse quickly, but that the expectation had proved wrong. He also speculated that Trump might be losing interest in the conflict and seeking other foreign-policy victories. More broadly, Kiriakou criticized U.S. interventions for lacking exit strategies, citing Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia.

U.S. foreign policy and soft power

Kiriakou said the Trump administration had abandoned traditional U.S. “soft power,” including development assistance and cultural outreach. He contrasted that approach with the long-term influence of American trade and culture in Vietnam, and argued that sanctions and military threats toward Cuba were counterproductive.

European and Serbian protests

Kiriakou said protests in Europe reflected genuine frustrations over poor schools, limited job prospects, and stagnant economies—not primarily concerns about Islam, as he said some Fox News coverage suggested.

He described the Serbian student movement as potentially organic, but said he would be surprised if the CIA had not supported it through covert action. This was speculation, not a substantiated report in the interview. He also said Serbia might pursue closer ties with Europe while avoiding sanctions on Russia, comparing that balance to Hungary.

What to watch

Kiriakou recommended watching U.S. election results and negotiations over Israel’s next government. He predicted political instability in Israel and said the Iran conflict could flare up again amid that instability and the outcome of the U.S. election.

Presenters and contributors

• Jamarl Thomas — Host and interviewer
• John Kiriakou — Former CIA officer and interview guest; associated with John Kiriakou’s Briefing Room and John Kiriakou’s Deadrop