Video summary

Quarterly Theory Bootcamp │ True Opens EP. 2

Main summary

Key takeaways

Educational

Main Ideas / Concepts

  • “True Opens” are levels that connect the “quarters” and “time cycles” into a cleaner framework.
  • They help filter out low-probability behavior often seen with standard quarterly analysis, such as:
    • fake reversals
    • fake retracements
    • other “manipulation” that doesn’t actually qualify
  • The core approach is always fractal: the same logic applies across timeframes/cycles as you zoom in or out.

Methodology: How to Find and Use True Opens

1) Determine which cycle/timeframe you’re trading

True opens exist across multiple cycles; each has its own name and “when to mark it.”

2) For each cycle, mark the True Open (always based on Q2)

General rule:

  • Ignore Q1 for marking the true open.
  • Mark the open price of the very first candle of Q2 for the cycle you’re viewing.
  • If you have an indicator that plots the quarters, you can use the Q2 boundary line and mark the open on the first candle at that line.

Detailed List: Names and Timing Rules for True Opens

A) Quadrial / 4-year cycle

  • Name: True Quadrennial Open (referred to as “quadrrenial open”)
  • Structure:
    • 4 years long
      • Q1 = year 1
      • Q2 = year 2
      • Q3 = year 3
      • Q4 = year 4
  • How to mark:
    • Wait for Q2
    • Mark the open price of the first candle in Q2 (the first candle that prints once Q2 begins)
    • Draw a line on the chart or rely on an indicator.
  • Monthly frame note: It aligns with the first month of each election year (as described).

B) Yearly cycle (weekly view on 1-week timeframe)

  • Name: True Year Open (labeled TYO)
  • Timing rule: First week of April
  • Logic given: Jan–Mar = Q1, Apr–Jun = Q2

C) Quarterly cycle (within a year) (described as “less mechanical”)

  • Name: True Quarterly Open (not a fixed single date)
  • Rule described:
    • There are multiple quarter cycles inside a year
    • Identify it as the second quarter (Q2) of whichever quarterly cycle you’re currently in
    • Mark the open on the first candle of Q2 for that cycle.

D) Monthly cycle (4-hour timeframe)

  • Name: True Month Open (labeled TMO)

  • Timing rule:

    • “Second full week of the month”
    • Specifically: Sunday 180 candle (Sunday 180 = first 4H candle at/after Sunday 18:00, as used in the explanation)

  • Distortion week handling:

    • A “distortion week” starts in one month and ends in the next
    • The distortion week is ignored/treated like a blank Q0
    • Then:
      • following week = Q1
      • next week = Q2
    • Therefore, wait until the 2nd full week (after ignoring distortion weeks) and mark the first 4H candle’s open of that Q2 week.

E) Weekly cycle (1-hour timeframe)

  • Name: True Week Open (labeled TWWO)
  • Timing rule: “Monday 180” (clarified to mean Tuesday’s candle open)
  • Clarification:
    • People confuse it because daily candle opens happen “within the previous day” due to session timing.
    • For the weekly cycle:
      • Q1 is Monday
      • Q2 is Tuesday
    • So mark the hourly open on the Tuesday 180 candle (the first candle of Q2).

F) Daily cycle (15-minute timeframe)

  • Name: True Day Open (labeled TDO)
  • Timing rule: 12:00 a.m. candle open on the 15-minute chart
  • Relation to ICT: described as consistent with ICT’s “midnight open” (though ICT may not teach the other true opens).

G) 5-minute cycle / “90-minute cycle” (session opens)

  • Name: True Session Opens (labeled via session names; examples include “Asia true session open,” etc.)
  • Concept: 4 daily sessions → 4 true session opens
  • Session boundaries (as stated):
    • Asia
      • Asia Q1: 6:00 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.
      • Asia Q2: 7:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
      • Mark the first 5m candle of Q2 (starting at 7:30 p.m.) by its open price.
    • London
      • Q2 open at 1:30 a.m.
      • Mark the 5m candle at 1:30 a.m., using the open of the candle body (not wick/close).
    • New York AM
      • Q2 open at 7:30 a.m.
    • New York PM
      • Q2 open at 1:30 p.m.

H) Micro cycle (1-minute timeframe)

  • Name: True Micro Session Opens (described as many per day)
  • Timing rule:
    • Too many to list explicitly
    • Use an indicator that shows quarters for the 1-minute chart.
  • How to mark with indicator:
    • Identify Q2 boundary line on the chart
    • Mark the open of the very first 1-minute candle on the Q2 line (the Q2 first candle for that micro cycle).

How to Use True Opens in Trade Decisions (Core “Premium/Discount” Logic)

1) Define premium/discount relative to the True Open

The speaker’s fundamental:

  • Below the true open = longs (bullish manipulation)
  • Above the true open = shorts (bearish manipulation)

2) Wait for a specific sequence within the quarter structure

They combine:

  • quarter behavior expectation (accumulation → manipulation → distribution, etc.)
  • plus confirmation using True Opens

Bullish scenario (as described):

  1. Establish the True Open for the relevant cycle.
  2. Manipulation: look for price to dip below the true open.
  3. Liquidity idea: ideally price takes out liquidity (often:
    • previous quarter low / sell-side liquidity).
  4. Reclaim: price should push back toward the true open:
    • break back above it with a solid close above.
  5. Distribution: after reclaim/confirmation, price transitions into distribution, potentially toward higher-timeframe liquidity.

Bearish scenario (as described):

  1. Establish the True Open.
  2. Manipulation: price should drop below or break levels accordingly.
    • For bearish manipulation, the key is price is acting in the “above” direction:
    • generally: manipulation above the true open, then displacement away downward follows.
  3. Displacement away (aggressive move away from the true open), then distribution / move lower.

3) “Valid vs fake manipulation” rule

  • If you think you see manipulation, but price did not actually cross the True Open for that cycle, it can be fake manipulation.
  • Those fake behaviors may instead be building liquidity before the real manipulation occurs.

4) Important entry clarification: “you don’t always have to be on the right side first”

  • Misunderstanding:
    • bullish = must buy only below the true open
  • Correction:
    • It’s sufficient that you saw manipulation below the true open first.
    • Then you may enter later (even above) after reclaim/retest and confirmation.
  • If you miss the initial entry, you can still look for:
    • retraces/retests toward the true open and then continue toward target liquidity.

Methodology: “Stacked True Opens” (Higher Probability Setups)

What stacked opens mean

  • Mark True Opens for the current cycle and also for the cycle one level higher.
  • The stacked concept increases probability for reversal.

Bullish stacked opens (as described)

  • Condition:
    • Lower timeframe true open (current cycle) must be below
    • One-cycle-higher true open
  • Sequence:
    • Mark:
      • current micro/1-min (example: “true micro session open”)
      • then mark the next higher cycle’s true open (example: “90-minute true session open”)
    • Once price dips below both stacked true opens, expect a high-probability reversal.

Bearish stacked opens (as described)

  • Condition:
    • Current/lower timeframe true open must be above
    • One-cycle-higher true open
  • Then:
    • Once price goes above/beyond in the bearish direction per the stacked alignment and shows required manipulation relative to the true opens, expect a high-probability reversal.

Role of stacked opens in the model

  • Stacked opens are not required.
  • If they exist and align with the bullish/bearish ordering, they raise probability.
  • The non-stacked baseline still applies:
    • manipulation must occur relative to the True Open of the cycle you’re trading.

Chart Example Lessons (What the Speaker Demonstrates)

  • Uses ES and highlights the indicator Oracle Insights QT toolkit as one that:
    • marks quarters automatically
    • automatically plots true opens
  • Demonstrates expected behavior:
    • Q1 continuation/accumulation
    • Q2 establishment of true open
    • manipulation across the true open’s level
    • displacement away confirming manipulation
    • subsequent distribution/continuation or reversal
  • Shows that the true open level is:
    • “very reactive”
    • often tied to when the candle “opens” vs when manipulation begins during the candle’s Q2 portion

Conclusions / Takeaways

  • True Opens = the Q2-open line for each cycle/timeframe.
  • They act as time-based premium/discount anchors.
  • Trading focus:
    • wait for manipulation to occur on the correct side of the true open
    • confirm with reclaim/displacement/closure behavior
    • use quarter expectations (accumulation/manipulation/distribution) alongside true opens
  • Stacked True Opens (aligned across one higher cycle) improve reversal probability, but aren’t mandatory.

Speakers / Sources Featured (As Mentioned)

  • The video narrator/speaker (unnamed): main teacher of “Quarterly Theory Bootcamp” and True Opens.
  • Oracle Insights QT toolkit (indicator/tool referenced): “link below in the description.”
  • ICT (Inner Circle Trader): referenced specifically regarding the “midnight open” concept.

Original video