Video summary

A 10 Bagger Like These Stocks May Never Happen Again

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Core thesis / market context

  • The speaker argues the market is in a “stock pickers market” regime where a small group of stocks drives most gains, while many laggards drag on broad indexes.
  • Quant claim: 77% of S&P 500 gains in the year come from the top 12 stocks, implying high dispersion and extreme “winners vs losers” divergence.
  • Observed setup signals:
    • Small caps dispersion: Russell 2000 has “done nothing” for ~2 years, but top vs bottom small caps dispersion ~2x, creating opportunities for stock-specific catalysts.
    • Dense catalyst calendar in an unnamed cluster of 4 sectors/themes (notably: FDA/regulatory, contracts, tech milestones).
    • Institutional positioning: institutions are buying early (framed as a “fingerprint”), before mainstream retail catches on.

Explicit timeline and target timeframe

  • The list is framed as having a chance at “10xer” outcomes within the next 12 months.

Methodology / framework (step-by-step logic)

The presenter(s) describe a rule-based selection approach using an app/screening tool:

1) Themes / flows screen (4 money flows)

Identify companies downstream of 4 money flows:

  1. Hard assets / anti-inflation trade
    • Commodities (e.g., mining)
  2. “War stocks” / defense & national security
    • Contract-driven small caps
  3. Quantum
    • Commercial scale revenues after a long wait; governments treat as strategic
  4. “Looney” / mental health
    • A new FDA-approved drug class in ~40 years (psilocybin-related therapy)

2) Company filters (risk/quality checks)

  • “Moat” proxy: how much of each revenue dollar remains after costs
    • Target for this analysis is ~70%+
    • The chosen names are not yet at that level → implies higher risk / earlier stage
  • Growth/profit trend check (last 4 quarters):
    • red = declining
    • orange = improving
    • (hover description noted in subtitles)
  • They emphasize three conditions for a plausible 10x:
    1. Small enough company size
      • Claimed “math zone” is $1B to $10B market cap
      • Larger cases (e.g., $100B → $1T in 12 months) are described as extremely unlikely
    2. A real event catalyst
      • Examples: FDA approval, government contract, tech milestone, profitability turning point
    3. Timing
      • Institutional money begins moving before retail hype
      • By the time mainstream coverage rises, “the trade may be over.”

Disclosures / cautions stated

  • Explicit “not financial advice” is not clearly stated, but multiple disclaimers appear, including:
    • “I don’t have a crystal ball”
    • Past performance is no guarantee
    • Need to do your own research and “know the rules”
    • Warning: copying the list without understanding the rules can lead to losses
  • Risk sizing guidance (position sizing):
    • Typically 1% to 3% max of a total portfolio for these speculative bets
    • Rationale: define/limit downside (“controlled downside” / “define your downside”)
    • Example volatility callout: Big Bear AI noted as down ~30% in a single day → size accordingly

Tickers / assets mentioned and what they’re tied to

The 6 “10-bagger-like” candidates (explicit list)

  1. Regetti Computing (ticker not clearly formatted in subtitles) — “Regetti”

    • Quantum computing hardware/software story
    • Catalysts mentioned:
      • Lyra chip launch later this year
      • $100M UK government contract
      • $8M India contract
      • $250M contract (context unclear)
      • Nvidia platform integration

  2. D-Wave — QBTS

    • Quantum annealing; optimization-oriented
    • Key metrics:
      • ~65% gross margin range
    • Customers cited:
      • 135 customers (including LG, Sharp, and Andural)
    • Catalysts:
      • Investor day in June
      • Revenue cited as ~$25M last year, “growing quickly”

  3. INQ — INQ

    • Gate-model quantum; framed as a revenue leader
    • Metrics:
      • $62M revenue last quarter
      • ~428% YoY revenue growth
      • Guided > $200M revenue this year
    • Catalysts:
      • $1.8B acquisition of SkyWater
      • DMEA category 1 approval (US military/defense agency chips)
      • “~80% revenue from commercial customers”

  4. Compass Pathways — CMPS

    • Mental health / psilocybin therapy
    • Pipeline:
      • COMP360
      • Phase 2: treatment-resistant depression
      • Phase 2: PTSD
    • Subtitles context:
      • “no margins / no sales / nothing at all” yet → very early stage
    • IPO context:
      • IPO around $17 in 2020, ran to ~$60, then dropped below $4

  5. Compass Minerals — CMP

    • Salt and specialty fertilizer producer (potash/sulfate referenced)
    • “Hard asset” framing; described as not disrupted by AI
    • Catalysts:
      • Fertilizer prices “going through the roof”
      • “Earnings just came in a little bit better” → stock popped
    • Valuation/price context:
      • Peak ~$100
      • “around $30 right now” (approx.)
    • Balance sheet context:
      • improving debt restructuring
      • debt-to-equity improving
    • Market cap:
      • noted as about $1B

  6. Big Bear AI — BBAI

    • Defense/national security + AI analytics
    • Money flows:
      • AI compute spending
      • war/defense spending
    • Catalysts:
      • “several new contracts over the next several quarters”
      • NATO rearmament mentioned
      • shift to US AI vendors
    • Risk:
      • margins “suck”; volatility
      • market cap described as fluctuating ~$1B to $3B
    • Performance risk callout:
      • down ~30% in a single day

Other tickers referenced as cautionary examples (past hype cycle)

Used to illustrate “buy and hold died” / rotation out after stories change:

  • PayPal — peak ~$310, down ~85% (also mentioned around ~$40-ish trading level)
  • Plug Power — peak ~$75, down ~96%
  • BlackBerry — peak ~$28, down ~77%
  • NEO — peak ~$67, down ~90%
  • Lucid — described similarly (exact numbers not provided)
  • Seagate (not a “current candidate”)
    • cited as $95, then touched $100 ~12 months later
    • described as ~745% gain (implied prior call price unclear in subtitles)
  • Palantir
    • mentioned as an earlier call that ran ~600%

Index / macro instruments and sectors

  • S&P 500: top 12 stocks contribute 77% of gains
  • Russell 2000: small caps; index described as flat “nothing for two years” while dispersion rises
  • Themes mentioned (part of app categories):
    • quantum computing
    • cyber/security/AI/robotics
    • uranium
    • satellites/space
    • (not tied to specific tickers beyond the 6 candidates above)

Key performance metrics & numbers (as stated)

  • “10x next 12 months” target
  • Historical examples of outperformance (evidence, not guarantees):
    • Regetti: “up over 1,000%”
    • D-Wave: “about 800%”
    • INQ: “tripled”
    • Palantir: “ran up 600%”
  • “Buy and hold” critique with drawdown examples:
    • PayPal: peak 310, trading around $40-ish, down ~85%
    • Plug Power: peak 75, down ~96%
    • BlackBerry: peak 28, down ~77%
    • NEO: peak 67, down ~90%
  • Selection metrics / growth & margins:
    • D-Wave gross margin: ~65% range
    • INQ revenue: $62M last quarter; ~428% YoY; guided > $200M this year
    • Regetti profit growth cited:
      • last quarter profits up 90%
      • growth up 93% (also noted as 90/93% for Regetti)
    • INQ profit growth cited: up 329%
    • CMPS profit growth cited: “went down 59%” (but still “better than quarter before”)
    • CMP profit growth cited: up 177%
    • BBAI profit growth cited: up 98%
  • Portfolio construction / risk:
    • Speculative allocation: 1%–3% max per position
    • Example volatility: BBAI down ~30% in a single day
  • Commodities macro linkage:
    • Fertilizer prices linked to Middle East developments as a driver of “through the roof” fertilizer prices

Presenters / sources mentioned

  • Felix — speaker (“my name is Felix”)
  • Winston — co-speaker/analyst
    • “does all the hard thinking”
    • referenced as building the “Winston app” and providing research
  • Background note:
    • “we used to be investment bankers”
  • No additional named sources beyond Felix/Winston were provided

Notes on formatting in subtitles (data quality)

  • Regetti computing ticker formatting is unclear in subtitles.
  • Some contract figures (e.g., the $250M for Regetti) have unclear context.
  • Lucid and Seagate include descriptive numbers but not all inputs (exact prior call price for the Seagate “~745% gain”) are fully specified in subtitles.

Original video